What's kind of odd is the market has basically crashed, but nobody seems to have noticed. A loss of 50%!constitutes a crash! not just a correction, and a very large number of stocks have lost 50% or more this year. Some have lost more than 50% in the month of September alone. Many people who were trading on margin have had their accounts reduced to ashes in the last 30 days. Some may actually be out of the game. Yet you still have a lot of clueless commentators out there speculating on whether or not we are finally going to get a 10% correction. This just goes to show the kind of distortion thst enters into market commentary when people consider nothin but indexes. Indexes are themselves artificial creations, and not representative of the market as a whole. And when the situation is made exponentially more artificial by QE and central banks indexes are even less reliable indicators. Of course the media does not want to use the dreaded word crash. We must not have any panic. Just wipe out accounts across the country and pretend nothing has happened. Maybe we can even lure a large number of retail investors into the market if nobody notices what's going on, right? Soon the news will be full of people yelling what a great sale, everybody rush into the market now buy buy buy.
You got it. Big player starting new position or major owner adding to position.
Notice the trade was done in the last few minutes of Fridays trading. That's when you do things if you don't want to be noticed, trying to be as discreet as possible. He did not want to be noticed and he did not want competition when he bought.
That purchase raised AVEO 14% in the blink of an eye taking it from 1.14 to 1.30.
We are lucky to be able to buy under 1.50. Fact is anyone who owns a few thousand shares of this at any price under 7 is likely to be very rich within 5 years or so. Yes, I said 7. People who are passing up the opportunity to buy under 2 are just blind.
Because DE is gold selling for the price of tin.
Comeuppance for the shorts on this board too. A lot of them were pumping AGCO while bashing DE.
I guess the group of short sellers or employees of a short fund who have made this message board their official bashing zone aren't too thrilled about today's strong close.
Keep trying guys. Let's hear some more from all the knowledge farmers out there who know DE is doomed and warn us to run for our lives from this stock.
The price you buy doesn't matter much if you buy and size and have patience. We get caught up with the price because we are watching it every day. Wise managers don't watch day to day price movements. They buy based in some fundamental reason. Klarman's average price on IDIX. Was at least 100% higher than what many of us who were long IDIX paid. Doesn't much matter. No one made even one tenth of the money he made on that investment, given how much he owned.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
This being said, thrx is a very safe play, even in this environment of fierce bio selling. Since it will be bought out by GSK eventually and the price they pay will reflect its real value, which is much higher than it is trading for now, so you do have a margin of safety here you have with very few other bio stocks. You just need to have the patience to go along with it and a willingness to buy. Bios have crashed this year, and who knows, next year the entire market could crash. Makes no difference how fiercely they short this and how far they drove it down. When GSK comes in they will still have to pay what it's worth, not what price it happens to be trading it. Some shorts will be wiped out on thst day, make no mistske about it, just as IDIX shirts were wiped out earlier this year. Only other bio play I really like and feel also has a good margin of safety is SNTA. Accumulate any time it dips under 4 and just hold patiently, same as with THRX. The day will come.
There is a reason but I don't think it is specific to thrx as much as to the sector as a whole. Less about fundamentals, more about trends in trading. It has been a pretty rough year for bios. You won't find too many that haven't sold off hard.
Same reason it fell a lot during past months without any news... And continued to fall even with good news...
Buy now, ask questions later
Short term traders don't make money trading the obvious. But I don't recommend you try to compete with them. Invest in the future.
Here we go again with the lowball buyout predictions. Everybody our there hitting the crack pipe today or something?
Last guy said 8 but you had to drop it $3 to 5 of course. 8 was just too high for your liking.
Ok how about 3.75. Do I hear a buyout for 3.75? Let's wrap this baby up and sell it for 3.75 to Soros, so he can turn into into th next Newmont with his mining expertise!
It's the beginning of a nightmare whose full implications you won't realize until you turn on your computer one day to see ANV sitting pretty over 20 and realize you haven't covered yet. Get the morphine ready.
$8 would be a joke.
$48 would be good. Presumably that's what you meant.
Anyway no shareholder in his right mind wants this future cash cow to be sold to a major, so I doubt you're holding a stake.
How many years experience do you have working in the mining industry and what is the highest position you have held ?
I assume you are the retired CEO of a successful mining venture who enjoys using yahoo message boards to share your expertise and advise management teams?
So in other words the only question you need to ask yourself is : can anv survive the down part of the cycle despite its debt? That is the only relevant question here, period. Because if it can survive it is going to explode like a rocket when gold recovers. If you don't believe anv csn survive or you think gold csn be artificially held down forever then join the merry band of shorts in this name.
The risk of shorting this stock at these levels is so high that you would have to be insane to do it. Many gamblers are insane though, they just can't help themselves.
$5 is not acceptable in the least and it would never happen that it would go for such a pittance.
As for debt, it works both ways with commodity stocks. High debt names get crushed during the down part of the cycle. They are actually the ones you want to buy for just that reason. Anv's high debt which is what makes many view it as a risk in gold's down cycle is precisely what will make this stock shoot through the roof once gold recovers and begins to move bullishly.
You buy now and you keep your eye on e $40 dollar mark. Actually you could just close your eyes and set a limit sell for $40. Come back in a few years and it will probably have hit and you won't have to waste anymore time posting on these boards.
Why anyone talks about anv being sold for $5 is beyond me. If you truly believe this and are not a short in disguise then you need to learn more about commodity price cycles and how company debt plays into them.
50% below book is definitely a prime buying opportunity on any security.. Even more so for anv which has done nothing but execute, beat expectations and release good news - all of which has been totally ignored by the market. Why? Because thst is actually the sign of a bear market in a stock: all good news is ignored, and sll bad leads to further selling. We longs can use this to our advantage. All the same I would be careful about going out too much in margin. Nothing is 100% and margin will ruin you if a worst case scenario plays out.
Soros buy is meaningless. A million shares is nothing for him. Zero conviction. Probably just a lottery ticket like his MCP buy awhile back which obviously went against him big time.
I have a feeling us posters on this board have much more conviction than soros and a lot more on the line
Here's how he explains the huge short position in the stock:
"many investors are concerned about the debt levels and the lack of funding for the expansion at Allied Nevada's primary mine, Hycroft."
Not sure thst is an adequate explanation. Who agrees?
1 post | Last Activity: 19 minutes ago
Member since: Aug 14, 2014
LOL... Wonder what short hedge fund this guy is posting for