good advice I think. I think options are super treacherous. a real casino but with worse odds. and options have become such a big business (or rather, money making scam) that they are really having a huge affect on the way the market works (weeklys, minis, etc). The game is more rigged than ever since every Friday you have MMs at work trying to "assign" prices.
but what do you mean by convert? i'm assuming you didn't exercise? you mean you sold your calls and bought stock with the profits?
I don't know but it doesn't seem like particularly good news to me. stock has really been strong lately, but the trading seems mostly day trading and speculative because there has been no news. the conference call seemed quite positive to me but still nothing certain, nothing determined about the "artifacts" yet. whatever happens, I'm saying in. maybe this news will drive it back down. wouldn't mind if it does; ready to pick up more shares.
short term traders dumping in a frenzy on the news. let's see where it ends up. great buying op in the making here.
how did they do that? opens high on great news... and then they smash it right down with all they've got
there was news. maybe you missed it. check out the yahoo headlines.
When I read the news, I expected a big drop. In fact I thought we'd fall further and am a bit surprised we closed above 5. Could be a sign of strength and potential rebound. but the real tell will be whether we stay above five or it falls further over the next week. I would expect a bit more downside unless there is some positive news to counteract the last release, but who knows.
as for what happened:. the same short term traders that were running it up on momentum, pushed it down on the news. these are the people who move stock prices in the short term; they aren't investors; and that's why short term action is best ignored unless you yourself are a trader.
an idiot that's going to be very rich one day, while the "smart" shorts on this board are left filing for banruptcy
aveo dismissed and forgotten.
best time to buy imo.
buffet says to buy at the point of maximum pessimism but I think the best time to buy is after the point of maximum pessimism has passed and a stock has simply been "forgotten." No more expectations either way. Impatient traders have moved on to other things, trying to turn a quick profit.
i remember looking at the GMCR board in October 2012. It was a graveyard. No posts, except a few of the usual suspects talking about bankruptcy and GMCR going to zero. Einhorn had destroyed the stock with rumors of accounting fraud. So far as everyone was concerned the stock was dead, doomed. Nobody would touch it.
Look at where GMCR is now.
so what do you think their reasoning is for not putting themselves up for sale? think they have something up their sleeve or they just don't care?
I would hope the final sale price would be higher than 4. Seems to me the company has a higher value than that
They really hit a snag with this FDA rejection though.
Here's something I've noticed Buch.
Now and then a short shows up on a Yahoo msg board talking about how "overvalued" X or Y stock is. Usually he has a very short posting history and all the posts he makes are on this one msg board - kinda like you, Buch.
Often the short posts the same "analysis" over and over in repeat messages on the board. His analysis is supposed to demonstrate that the stock is a sell, not a buy.
Then said stock makes a sudden move up. And keeps going up. It might go up 50% or 100% at a time when no one was expecting it.
Then the short disappears. He stops making his repeat posts trying to demonstrate said stock is overvalued.
Now I find that strange, Buch.
Seems to me that if the short was right and the stock was overvalued, then it must be way more overvalued after it makes a 50% or 100% move up. But after the stock makes that move, the short isn't there trying to prove to everybody it's overvalued anymore; he just disappears.
Hope that won't happen to you Buch.
If one day soon NBG makes a big move you weren't expecting, and you disappear from this board, I just want to let you know that our repeat "analysis" posts about NBG's "real" book value will be sorely missed.
Hope you'll be here to post this same info again next week. Until then...
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Used to be that the only short on this board was Jabber, the self-declared "non-short" who "has no position."
But recently I've noticed a lot more short posters trying to spread panic and cast doubt on IDIX as a company.
You can smell the fear in these short posts, which I can only take as a very positive sign, on a board where shorts don't usually feel the need to put in an appearance.
My favorite message by a short so far is the one by the guy who said "I don't want to start any rumors, but maybe Seth Klarman is selling his position."
lol. classic. In the end that's the kind of thing a short is reduced to spouting here because otherwise he finds himself in the rather precarious position of claiming that he has a better handle on IDIX than Klarman does, and that's why he's short.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
7 thumbs down for that comment, which has nothing controversial about it? must be some seriously hurting shorts following this msg board.
gil, my mistake. glad to hear you are long, as I think that will be the much more profitable position in the end.
unless Klarman has changed his investment philosophy, I find it highly unlikely he has done any selling. first you must consider the size of his stake in IDIX and the fact that he added on what others considered bad news rather than reducing. Then consider the fact that IDIX is, for him, a more speculative holding. He has explained that he does not take more speculative positions unless he expects massive gain from them. I don't think Klarman will begin unloading until IDIX is well into the double digits. But of course his holding time is much longer than most Yahoo message board posters who, from what I can tell, are almost all short term traders. I have no doubt Klarman will still be in IDIX when this is trading over 20; but I imagine only the smallest number of posters on this board will be along for the ride at that point. Most will either sell out of panic or out of impatience.
shorts will be forced to cover on the arrival of any positive catalyst. for one thing, a lot of them will be getting margin calls. With some positive news or promising development, IDIX could easily go over 10 again by the end of this year. Shorts are counting on some news that creates fear and uncertainty in the near term. Recently they got this when we were told the FDA requested more information from IDIX and the stock plummeted in premarket trading. I think at this point positive news is more likely than negative; because there are a number of things that could go right for IDIX before the end of the year and right now this is like a coiled spring. When this stock runs, it will be unexpected, and a great deal of the move may be made premarket. Many shorts who have put too much of their account on the line to short IDIX will be wiped out then.
Actually all that is needed to get a massive run on IDIX right now is confirmation about the artifact. If IDIX can confirm it was indeed an artifact, we will have lift off. Management merely expressing confidence about the artifact was enough to send the stock back up after plummeting, and it sent it up even higher than the price it had reached previously. Bankruptcy will be the fate of those who are playing with fire by shorting IDIX if they ahve not covered before positive news comes.
I don't know what you're missing. Why don't you tell us what you are seeing instead? Why do you think this will skyrocket?
The recent upward price moves have been on low volume compared to the downward moves, so it's hard to say what will happen in the near term. It does seem like something worth betting on for the long term as a value turn-around play. But the turn around has to happen. It could "skyrcoket" based on short term trading momentum at any time, of course, but would probably lose its gains just as quickly.
The debt is simply massive. I'm not sure why no one is discussing how this affects the company and its prospects.
If the government renews concessions, this is going to lose Electrobas billions in revenues. That is another concern.
No doubt it is this lingering uncertainty that is keeping the price depressed.
One thing I am curious about is the book value listed by Yahoo. I wonder if it has been estimated correctly or there is something else that needs to be taken into consideration in calculating it which Yahoo's automatic process misses. It seems hard to believe a company could be trading this far beneath book value. I have rarely seen such a huge discrepancy between market price and BV.