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Tessera Technologies Inc. Message Board

jupiter_symphony33 4 posts  |  Last Activity: Dec 15, 2014 4:16 AM Member since: Oct 7, 2005
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  • Reply to

    Screaming bargin

    by zipp_brain Oct 1, 2014 4:31 PM
    jupiter_symphony33 jupiter_symphony33 Oct 2, 2014 2:13 AM Flag

    What's kind of odd is the market has basically crashed, but nobody seems to have noticed. A loss of 50%!constitutes a crash! not just a correction, and a very large number of stocks have lost 50% or more this year. Some have lost more than 50% in the month of September alone. Many people who were trading on margin have had their accounts reduced to ashes in the last 30 days. Some may actually be out of the game. Yet you still have a lot of clueless commentators out there speculating on whether or not we are finally going to get a 10% correction. This just goes to show the kind of distortion thst enters into market commentary when people consider nothin but indexes. Indexes are themselves artificial creations, and not representative of the market as a whole. And when the situation is made exponentially more artificial by QE and central banks indexes are even less reliable indicators. Of course the media does not want to use the dreaded word crash. We must not have any panic. Just wipe out accounts across the country and pretend nothing has happened. Maybe we can even lure a large number of retail investors into the market if nobody notices what's going on, right? Soon the news will be full of people yelling what a great sale, everybody rush into the market now buy buy buy.

  • Reply to

    Perfectly horrid

    by tomatoheintz Dec 3, 2014 10:48 PM
    jupiter_symphony33 jupiter_symphony33 Dec 4, 2014 5:52 AM Flag

    perfectly typical. THRX has performed in line with most stocks.

    anyone who has a portfolio of stocks consisting of anything but some major components of the S & P lost 50% or more of their capital this year. Even some components of the S & P lost 50% or more, but they kept juicing enough of them to get repeated green closes in the index.

    When you think about it it's actually a brilliant move by the banks and big institutions. The market crashed this year and nobody knows, except for a few people who actually watch the market closely and keep their eye on a lot of stocks. They were able to pull out huge profits and open shorts across the board: the media reported nothing but "market making new highs again" and nobody outside the loop understood what was happening. As usual, it's private investors who have gotten shafted. Big money moves in a pack. Institutions often pull out around the same time, a stock gets cut in half, then they slowly begin to accumulate again and wait for the ride up.

    It's a losing game to buy anything buy an index, unless you have very strong conviction in a company and a long time horizon (at least 5 years). Klarman clearly has conviction in THRX. He was making buys when THRX was close to 40 before the spln off. But the shorts have destroyed this along with the spin off. Most holders have huge paper losses. But same with most biotech and other sectors l this year. Unless you owned the whole index, there weren't many places to hide. REIT's have been a safe haven. Just as they were when the market crashed after the net bubble in early 2000. Anyone who bought REITs last year when they bottomed out and got rid of everything else has done very well this year. But as for the rest, well there are very few "stock pickers" in this market who are not bleeding copiously right now.

    When THRX turns around it will move fast. Could return to 40 within a month. But how long will we have to wait for that? possibly a year or more.

  • Reply to

    When is the dividend cut coming?

    by jb500013 Dec 9, 2014 3:05 PM
    jupiter_symphony33 jupiter_symphony33 Dec 10, 2014 1:42 AM Flag

    If you're dreaming of a trading price of $10 it meas you are VERY late to the trade and have foolishly shorted at the lows, which is certainly not investing, and doesn't even deserve to be called trading, it's pure gambling.

    Here's the fact you need to confront: if THRX cuts the dividend at all, they won't cut it before you close your short. So that means you get to pay it out of your own pocket. Obviously you don't like paying it, and that's why you're desperately hoping it gets cut.

    Shorting a stock where the big short money has already been made on a 50% + drop, is never a wise idea, unless you have some insider info to justify your position, though they wouldn't be wise either, since it would be illegal.

    Or maybe you think there's just no limit to the downside here because THRX is going bankrupt soon?

    Or maybe you've forgotten that THRX will be bought out by GSK, and no one knows when it will happen, but it could happen any time?

    I remember plenty of posts by characters like you on the IDIX board, not long before IDIX was bought out for 250% higher than the price it was trading at. I hope you're prepared for that eventuality. with THRX. At least I hope you're more prepared for it than the IDIX shorts were. They spent a lot of time screaming about how IDIX was headed for the pinks. And now? They've lost their trading accounts. That's how the market rewards those who think they know things nobody else does. Just like you think you know a dividend cut is coming, and prefer to ignore things which are much more widely known, because they jeopardize the short position you're defending here. A dangerous approach if you ask me. Good luck ; you're going to need it!

  • Reply to

    Bruce Kovner bought over 1 milloon shares at 4.01

    by jk4763 Dec 14, 2014 10:30 AM
    jupiter_symphony33 jupiter_symphony33 Dec 15, 2014 4:16 AM Flag

    here's another example of a smart investor: Seth Klarman, with his purchases of IDIX. Lots of short term traders were mocking him on the IDIX msg board when IDIX was trading in the 3's, because short term traders have very little understanding what smart investing means. most of those short term traders were short IDIX, just as you're short SNTA. Might want to take a look and see how that whole story turned out before you take on any more ill advised risk. I know serf-importantly mocking a billionaire on a yahoo message boards makes you feel good now, but I doubt you'll consider this small pleasure worth cost, when you end up losing your life savings.

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