unfortunately SODA is a notorious trading stock and I think this is what works against it in the present. No one wants to hold onto a stock this manipulated, particularly when the manipulation favors the very large percentage of shorts. The one reason to own this right now is for the buyout possibility because it is the only thing that would ensure the stock price would rise to fair value. I do believe SODA will rise on its own merits but this will most likely be a much slower process with many bumps along the way. The possibility of a buyout is the one real reason for not letting go of one's shares. However remote, buyout is a possibility here, and it is the only thing that can take this stock out of the hands of the shorts and push it to a price that reflects fundamental realities.
buyout would be over 100 a share. everyone knows this is trading at an absurdly depressed valuation, but a buyout would be a major trigger for buyers and send this right up to intrinsic value in minutes.
just study history. look what happened within minutes in premarket trading earlier this year when the news hit that pepsi was buying SODA. and that was just the beginning of what was to be, if the buyout had been real, not rumor.
some good news is all this needs. if good news comes, this could easily be trading at 5 or more by the end of next year.
I wouldn't trade this one if I were you, or keep constant watch over it. you have to believe in the potential of this company and be willing to make an investment. not everything you've got, just a certain percentage of your capital. then just periodically add as the discount deepens.
only longterm holders willing to stay aboard on a bumpy ride will see a reward on this one. it could take a year or two years or more of waiting - for just one week of sudden, massive wealth, resulting from an unexpected move.
overseas banks have been taking a severe beating recently. . they are all getting sold hard. FBP was simply diverging for a time. It went up and reached its last highs while other banks were being sold off. now it has simply come into line with its peers, which is usually what happens in all cases like this I have seen. on top of that, market action in general is very bearish at the moment. but in a market this choppy one never knows if it will continue, or this is just a set up for a major reversal, and a huge Santa Rally in the 2nd half of Dec.
I don't like this market though. There is something sinister about it. Most of the time they make the indexes close green, but if you look at individual stocks, even those which run up, end up getting brutally hammered later. traders run a sector up, then hammer it to death, then move on to a new sector. the market is over run with trading maniacs, who fuel violent swings in both directions. they seem to be making most of their money on volatility, and disregarding business fundamentals. as options get more and more popular, this situation gets worse. there is no safe place to invest anymore.
all the same, buying extremely undervalued stocks like FBP is still the best bet in the long run, but one needs to be willing to hold courageously for at least a few years.
when the traders destroy the 3D printing sector which they have recently ramped up beyond all reason and you start to see stocks like SYSS and DDD crash, then I think the jig is up. next time the market crashes, even cheap stocks like FBP are likely to get hit hard and lose even more value. but soon after that is when people start looking at fundamentals again, and many of the speculators who thrived before have gone bust. at that point money will begin flowing into bargain stocks like this one.
Jabber, I hope you plan on holding ANV too, until at least 2015, assuming you haven't already been scared out. I'm afraid you're going to get nervous and sell out of that one on the first big pop, and miss out on the subsequent huge run. patience and fortitude, my friend.
yes. the patent dispute is not even the main reason for owning idix imo. this is just the most prominent issue at the moment, so it's all anyone seems to be thinking about.
I'm not sure why but the market has a problem with big picture thinking. that is why you get over reactions to the upside and the downside so often and why the catalyst of the moment (whether positive or negative) is often treated by the market as the ONLY thing in existence affecting a company/stock.
I suppose traders have an interest in keeping people short sighted and narrowly focused since they make most of their money on ephemeral wild swings. Doesn't help investors much though.
good timing, myprim. you have a perfect entry point right here. professional shorts love to come in and fade this one every time it spikes. I suspect you might even be able to get some under 36 tomorrow. it will trade like this for awhile. but one of these days one of the positive catalysts will drive it up over 50, and it will never see these levels again.
I also suggest you consider reading my previous message on this board about catalysts and listen to the last conference call.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
my advice, don't gamble in the biotech sector.
see my previous post to the guy here who lost 400k by making the same mistake.
professional money managers usually can't beat the indexes, but I bet you'd be doing much better right now if you had handed all of your money over to a professional money manager rather than gambling.
if you're going to gamble no matter what, why not just go to Vegas and put it all on red? you'll either double it all or lost it all in one second - a lot less stress than watching your investment collapse in the market.
if nothing can stop you from playing bios in an attempt to get rich quick, then at least split your money between about three of them. don't put it all in NVIV. that way if one of your picks goes to zero, you may still have money in the other two, and maybe one of the others will be profitable. at that point you just might wise out and cash out all your bio positions and buy an index.
I'm not sure what your approach is. it sounds like you are putting all your money in a single risky stock and hoping to get lucky? then when that goes wrong, you try another?
some people do get lucky doing this, but others go broke.
it's really no different than gambling at a casino, except it's a lot more stressful.
the key to success in the markets is controlling risk, not chasing big profits. for every person who gets lucky chasing big profits, a lot more go broke. you're more likely to be one of the many losers than the one the big winners. don't be fooled by the one of the many people out there who writes a book about how he turned 10k into 16 million trading stocks and he's going to teach you how to do it. very few people can do that. and the few who did took insane amounts of risk and just happened to get lucky doing it. you won't be able to imitate their example.
that is why controlling risk is a better strategy.
if you don't want to risk losing everything you have left, you'd be better off putting the majority of your money in a broad based index fund. if you must own stocks, then just buy the stocks of well established big name big cap dividend paying companies. you won't get rich overnight owning those, but at least you lose the rest of your savings and you will slowly increase your income over time.
if you like a stock like nviv and think it has good future potential for profits, put a little "high risk" money in this stock and leave ti there for year or two and see what happens. but if I were you I'd keep the rest in safe investments like an index fund. you've already lost 400k. protect what you have left.
yeah, I know. and I've been acquainted with traders who have said more or less the same thing one month, one week, or sometimes one day before they completely blew out on their "sure thing."
Anyone who thinks there is any trade on which he can't lose is truly living in the twilight zone.
I'm curious, how are you hedging the jumbo sized "hit the jackpot" position you have taken on SNTA?
I'm assuming you have a hedge here, though I don't recall you mentioning it in any of your previous messages.
For holders of BSBR as well as SAN --
has anyone been able to locate information on the pay date of the BSBR special dividend?
I can only find info on the pay date of the regular dividend.
will the special div be paid in 2014 at the same time as the regular dividend or should we expect it at another time?
thanks in advance to anyone who knows
Sentiment: Strong Buy
haha. yeah. this guy is the ultimate pumper. he really sticks to his guns though, gotta give him that much. even still using the same lines about monkeys walking and no one owning enough of his stock. they're like slogans. he must have an advertising background. unfortunately I allowed myself to be convinced by his "no one owns enough of this stock" line when NVIV was at its all time high, and added to my position. at the all time high he was pumping a lot harder than he is now. This has made it a bit more difficult for me to lower my cost basis here, but at least my average price is lower than it was before.
everybody should be smart and realize: there IS a point when you own enough of ANY stock, and only you can determine that point.
popart, you are very skilled with the technicals.
i've noticed you're one of the few ymb posters who gets it right with technical calls.
what indicator did you use to get your buy signal?
that's nothing compared to the pain that's going to be suffered by "allmarketpro" when he's forced to cover his ill advised, ill timed short.
woe woe woe
Sentiment: Strong Buy
I'd like to understand what you are suggesting here, but it's a bit vague. I may have missed your original post on this trade and can't find it in your history. If you don't want to share your actual trade, could you give an example of a hypothetical long/short futures trade that fits the criteria you like? I think some people might be confused by your vague use of the "futures." Since many kinds of futures trade, and all volatility products are derived from futures, it could lead to a misunderstanding. I'm guessing you are taking a position biased to the long side and that you are using VIX options to avoid the drag on VXX and UVXY?
the whole world is here now.
we have Ivan - obviously Russian, a notable descendant of the Terrible (need I say, Kovner is also of Russian descent)
Quothron - who many speculate is telegraphing us from somewhere in China
And now we even have the Vietnamese contigent, led by "mkingsad" who according to loyal follower, a_nguyen001, is a biotech sharp shooter and not someone you want to mess around with
mkingsad is definitely not making me sad... his presence on our board can only be interpreted as a good omen
welcome the world to the SNTA msg board!
the stars are lining up for us
Sentiment: Strong Buy