Citron has a large and aggressive following that is prepared to act. How many people seriously act on the word of a regular analyst? They take their time. Citron specializes in these kinds of raids, and their minions are prepared to act immediately. That's why it works.
"AAVL will enter massive oversold range today. RSI is positive. 50 day, 200 day are positive bullish markers"
All of this is meaningless in the face of a major fundamental change.
So given what you say, and given the recent rise over the past year (despite the more recent pullback), is it reasonable to say that most of the shorts are underwater and susceptible to a squeeze?
I bought some on the drop the other day and sold the same day due to macro uncertainty (Greece, etc.). What I have read about this drug seems to confirm what you are saying, but I'd like to learn more. But I have been burned before when I over-committed myself too soon.
Is there a particularly good resource out there (beyond the obvious places, like the company website) to learn more?
It came up on one of my screens as a stock that had a recent pullback that might be worth investigating. One things I noticed was the high short ratio. What is the reason for this? I saw some older articles discussing an IRS audit, but that seemed to resolve itself without much damage. Is the high short interest just a hangover from that?
I looked this up and read it, as well as some other related articles on this study. The study size was small, but the primary results could be interpreted as negative if chemo were chosen over Enzalutamide to a larger degree, as this would limit the market. On the other hand, there was also an indication that the expression of the AR-V7 receptor could change, which might make Enzalutamide viable again.
It is plausible that someone taking a negative spin on this could help explain the recent drop.
Actually your question "why" was in response to "Wish I had more money to dump in at these prices", without any other context. You did not say "why the collapse", you simply said "why" in response to the original comment.
So it was reasonable for anyone to assume that what you were questioning was why someone would want to put more money in this.
Collapse is due to an Insider sale that is being over-hyped. The insider in question has made regularly scheduled sales of a similar size. Folks that point to insider sales as signs of a lack of confidence by the management or directors will point to today's sales as evidence of future weakness, and use it as an excuse to sell, short, etc., and will deliberately ignore the fact that it appears to be part of a regularly scheduled plan of sales. Such selling can cause stops to be hit, exacerbating the drop. This is what happened here.
The sale was identical in quantity to others done by this same individual in the past, so it is very likely part of a regularly scheduled plan of sales, and NOT a sign of a lack of confidence. Therefore, this would be a buying opportunity for those who are confident in the company;s future.
Your characterization of the news is misleading. Headline on the BBC for this is "Lung cancer therapy is 'milestone'" and the article is uniformly positive, apart from some standard caveats, including several positive quotes from cancer researchers.
Lead researcher Dr Luis Paz-Ares, from the Hospital Universitario Doce de Octubre in Madrid, Spain, said: "[The results] mark a milestone in the development of new treatment options for lung cancer."
Dr Alan Worsley, the charity's senior science information officer, told the BBC: "This trial shows that blocking lung cancer's ability to hide from immune cells may be better than current chemotherapy treatments."
"Advances like these are giving real hope for lung cancer patients, who have until now had very few options."
I see the same elsewhere, along with some that raise question about whether the market will be limited due to PD-1, but the Madrid researcher quoted above saw that as a positive:
"Nivolumab is the first PD-1 inhibitor to show a significant improvement in overall survival in a phase III trial in non-squamous non-small cell lung cancer."
I did my DD; it sounds like you did not do yours.
I saw that. Doesn't seem like it would be worth a 7% drop, though. However, once stops were hit, it might have just kept falling as the stops triggering increased selling pressure.
Looks like the scripts have had a positive effect on share price so far this morning. This shows what can happen if they grow the script numbers.
These are all aliases for one guy I would imagine. Someone who is desperately underwater on a short.
If the overall stock market is a monster bubble, then why focus on one stock to short?
Why not short the whole market using a basket of stocks, such as a whole market ETF, and remove idiosyncratic risk?