In this case it is very difficult to give a sales or revenue forward guidance in a new market where Relypsa is the pioneer/trailblazer. Can't even give a script estimate for the net month. If they do, and they are high, the PPS will get killed again. Not until maybe the mid-3rd Qtr.
Also the fact they reached 1700 physicians which gets the "community" talking and sharing. Veltassa must wrok huh? I see your point on delayed payor though.
It was the "street" that went AFTER the $300M cash burn (interpreted) and the rest snowballed. Maybe the 1 st Qtr is the heaviest cash burn due to launch and initial travel etc. expenses??? So most likely under $240M for 2016? Soon will know
anton - so I was CLOSE? Either way, thx and this is a HUGE cash burn BEAT by almost $18M (using $75M as target) - underpromised/overdelivered!
The $600K comes from the 1155 outpatients (PAID) and the 374 Hosp Institutions. Remember that PAID will always lag prescriptions by 30-90 days and the starter supplies could have turned into real outpatients in the next month or so.
I come up with a $55M cash burn but that is by taking Total Operating Expenses - Total revenues. IF that is close then way under the $75m we were all thinking!
Agree Anton - a line of credit is what I would expect. AND why pay off the $17M with the new loan $'s? unless that was part of the "contract" so the loaning entity gets something for the effort.
That is my question Glenn. You wouldn't pay interest UNLESS you actually borrow the money (in hand). Relypsa has no reason to have that $150M (or so) "in hand" at this time. They may never need it but have access to it when/if they do. If they grab $10M (let's say 12/16) then they would pay the 11.5% starting at that time. I may be wrong but that should be the way this should work.
Beerman, lease let me know WHEN the first payment is due. If next month I am selling, if December, 2018.....
And the major holders (Orbimed, Janus) have got to be involved in this as well as the BOD. This is really not for the LONG term (as it looks quite UGLY). We shall get some answers in 24 hours.
YIKES was in reference to the reaction we now see. Those selling see this as ONLY negative news. This had to be done with the major holders in agreement. not in a vacuum. But the market wants to STOMP on anything perceived as negative. Ridiculous
pharma - AZN bought ZS Pharma AFTER Relypsa got the 6 hr window with their approval of Veltassa. They thought they stole the HK/CKD market with an unapproved and unproven long term trial drug. Lots has changed.
Anton - the overall market does not care but PFE did real GOOD:
"(Reuters) - U.S. drugmaker Pfizer Inc reported first-quarter revenue that blew past analysts' average estimate, boosted by sales of its new treatments for cancer and its Hospira acquisition.
Shares of the company were up 3.2 percent at $33.86 in premarket trading on Tuesday.
Pfizer also raised its revenue and earnings forecast for the year helped in part by a favorable impact of recent changes in foreign exchange rates.
The company's revenue rose 19.7 percent to $13.01 billion (8.86 billion pound), in the first quarter, ahead of analysts' estimate of $12.02 billion, according to the Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.
Net income rose to $3.02 billion, or 49 cents per share, from $2.38 billion, or 38 cents per share, a year earlier."
Perhaps this will finally be discussed (doubt it)??
"Hyperkalaemia drug ZS9 faces safety scrutiny ahead of FDA review – experts
High hypertension bar could raise agency eyebrows
Oedema data significance disputed
Potassium lowering comparisons to Veltassa/kayexalate limited
ZS Pharma's (NASDAQ:ZSPH) hyperkalaemia drug ZS-9 has elicited expert conflict on its FDA approval prospects following interim Phase III safety data. Physicians questioned its safety/efficacy profile relative to recently approved Relypsa's (NASDAQ:RLYP) Veltassa (patiromer) for the same indication.
Whilst sound efficacy data was noted, trial design inconsistencies hinder ZS-9, Veltassa and kayexalate comparisons. ZS-9 has a 26 May 2016 PDUFA date.
Safety is a key FDA concern, which will likely prompt questioning over hypertensive findings, said Dr Mark Perazella, nephrologist, Yale University School of Medicine, Connecticut. Furthermore, hypertension illustrates CKD progression, potentially raising regulatory, if not market, alarms, he added. Veltassa's superior safety profile to ZS-9 could deter the latter's review if the drug profiles are compared, said Perazella. Veltassa produced statistically significant hypertension reductions over one year, according to one analyst report's independent statistical findings. The compound received FDA approval on 21 October.
No ZS004, ZS004E and ZS005 data therefore nothing new within the last year or so. Seems like a rehash to me OR meant for ACUTE support. But RLYP took a hit after hours due to perception(s).