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Insmed Incorporated Message Board

justarook04 270 posts  |  Last Activity: Aug 28, 2015 4:36 PM Member since: Apr 13, 2004
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  • justarook04 by justarook04 Aug 10, 2015 9:59 PM Flag

    All he can do is post his nonsense that nobody will read guys. He is a waste of space and our time. Please IGNORE all 35+ of his IDs. Moving on

  • Reply to

    What happens when we finally do get some news?

    by mjmfrompa Jul 15, 2015 12:30 PM
    justarook04 justarook04 Aug 10, 2015 6:07 PM Flag

    ty - my take on why CF was included is the 2 year (plus extended) CF trial that showed no efficacy issues (its safe). The NTM data (phase II which has been "extended" beyond a year) should have been good enough to warrant consideration in the EU as well a breakthrough status (as support). Since the Convert trial will continue beyond the potential CHMP/EU decision timeframe, THAT may become future support after approval (running a trial continued past approval is "normal"). Also, the ATU with France opens up another support leg for approval "assuming" improvement in the patient. With all that said, there is NO guarantee of approval but it does raise the % of likelihood to a high percent. If there was an approved/successful treatment for NTM already that could make this quest much more questionable.....but there is none that I know of.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Let's Review Terry

    by jad9000 Aug 7, 2015 10:12 AM
    justarook04 justarook04 Aug 8, 2015 9:46 AM Flag

    The thing is with you FINE investors doing these valuations in the foreseeable future, WHY are the "EXPERTS" not seeing this? 2018 would be a HUGE year revenues-wise but 2016 is right around the corner. Treating a patient in France is the tip of the iceberg and there will most likely be more. $1.2B is $20/shr alone which would be substantial if all goes well. There HAS to be a decent level of confidence out there for the addition of so many sites for the CONVERT PH III NTM trial. The only down side I can see is a delay of EU approval or getting patients in the PH III trial as expected time-wise.

    By the way BLACKROCK added over 250K shares this past qtr:

    Owner Name DateShared HeldChange (Shares)Change (%)
    AMERICAN CENTURY COMPANIES INC 06/30/2015 57,814 57,814 New
    BANK OF NEW YORK MELLON CORP 06/30/2015 332,006 66,185 24.90
    BLACKROCK ADVISORS LLC 06/30/2015 70,756 40,311 132.41 (added 40K)
    BLACKROCK FUND ADVISORS 06/30/2015 2,266,502 249,989 12.40 (added 250K)
    BLACKROCK GROUP LTD 06/30/2015 15,732 9,957 172.42
    BLACKROCK INC. 06/30/2015 1,962 792 67.69 53
    BLACKROCK INSTITUTIONAL TRUST COMPANY, N.A. 06/30/2015 1,403,266 39,848 2.92
    BLACKROCK INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT, LLC 06/30/2015 207,932 63,507 43.97 5,589 (add 63K)
    BLACKROCK JAPAN CO. LTD 06/30/2015 484 484 New 13
    CALIFORNIA STATE TEACHERS RETIREMENT SYSTEM 06/30/2015 112,325 21,996 24.35

    There were a few that sold partials which would make sense due to the rise in PPS!!

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Note revised one year estimate.....$33.

    by theiceman666911 Aug 7, 2015 3:21 PM
    justarook04 justarook04 Aug 8, 2015 8:37 AM Flag

    jad - I am going out on a limb (again) but I suspect we will see some upgrade(s) Monday after the analysts digest the 2nd Qtr/CC (and the market downturn). I think Insmed (and the EU) discussed the CF portion of the EMA application and it became OBVIOUS that NTM was their ticket to approval where there is no approved drug/treatment. So, we got to hear that "news" officially. Also, the statement of not buying another pipeline/company, Unless it became quite clear it was a great deal, was an undertone to no more dilution for at least the next 2-3 years. All that plus some of the other progress being made should push us over $30 by the end of August (market conditions allowable). No mention on any potential partnership but emphasis on over 100 sites treating NTM indicates more likely a BO (offer) may be in the next 6-9 months).

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Brace yourselves - buying opportunity

    by justarook04 Aug 7, 2015 8:53 AM
    justarook04 justarook04 Aug 7, 2015 3:47 PM Flag

    I should have posted this earlier but just like the last time this market went this severely red, the same stocks get oversold: EGRX, RLYP and INSM (not as bad). CNCE also survived a little better this time. This time I had not decent cash to buy Insmed when it went below $25.50 so for that I blew it thinking the market would NEVER go down like this over two consecutive days. Some stocks may never recover from this hack job - Insmed will do fine!!

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Note revised one year estimate.....$33.

    by theiceman666911 Aug 7, 2015 3:21 PM
    justarook04 justarook04 Aug 7, 2015 3:26 PM Flag

    iceman I am trying to figure out if the 1YR PT now $33+ (average of 5-7 analysts) has an upgrade included or did one of the $25PTs drop out. Not sure which. Can't find any changes of late. Agree on the "golden opportunity" earlier today.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Brace yourselves - buying opportunity

    by justarook04 Aug 7, 2015 8:53 AM
    justarook04 justarook04 Aug 7, 2015 12:47 PM Flag

    The thing that has me quite concerned is CRAMER predicted (last week) this week would be a bloodbath for the market. IF he knew that in any way, then it is becoming very likely that these moves are more planned and programmed than we will ever know. The idea is (besides some valuation corrections) to have the retail investors SELL due to panic and fear. Stop losses are never safe any more either. The market has become a "racket" controlled by the banks and any other financial institution involved with trading.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Brace yourselves - buying opportunity

    by justarook04 Aug 7, 2015 8:53 AM
    justarook04 justarook04 Aug 7, 2015 9:45 AM Flag

    Not sure if we hit the BOTTOM but would hope those who could would have bought under $25.50. I will apologize for the negative" tones I have posted but the reality has proven itself many times. Insmed is a good stock and will succeed despite the market's sentiment. All systems go with INSM (my opinion).

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Brace yourselves - buying opportunity

    by justarook04 Aug 7, 2015 8:53 AM
    justarook04 justarook04 Aug 7, 2015 9:04 AM Flag

    Agree but I have been watching the IBB and has drifted lower to just above break even. After yesterday's debacle, I have a hard believing the BIOs will escape this wrath of the MMs. Forgetting that, I thought we might see CITI or COWEN or Leerink up their PTs to at least $30. That rise over $28.50 was not on a lot of shares (maybe 5K?) but it had to be "someone" being at market - thus since shares are not readily available - it went up searching for shares.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • PM looks real UGLY (jobs data etc.) and its Friday. Maybe we see historian's $25 (I doubt that) but this should be short-lived. This market is sickening.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    WOW!!!!

    by justarook04 Aug 6, 2015 9:47 AM
    justarook04 justarook04 Aug 6, 2015 2:45 PM Flag

    Hello historian - Has nothing to do with Insmed. the market is in the crapper and IBB is down huge - Thus the $28+ was short-lived due to market conditions. try another day

  • What a freakin' negative market. BIOs are getting creamed. IBB is down huge. Buying opportunity for Insmed. WHAT are the reasons this time? Rate increase? 2nd Qtr earnings?

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    IP moved to Ireland

    by lux19insm Aug 6, 2015 10:45 AM
    justarook04 justarook04 Aug 6, 2015 10:52 AM Flag

    You also heard that they are NOT actively pursuing another company/product with their cash raised in April UNLESS it is a perfect fit. Great statement (leaves room for the "possibility") but indicates that the cash will be here for quite awhile. The potential suitor would want the cash of course.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    $28 passed - new 52 week high set

    by jd39souza98 Aug 6, 2015 9:47 AM
    justarook04 justarook04 Aug 6, 2015 10:21 AM Flag

    I was just stating the overall market movement but I think we need to hear from those analysts (Cowen and Leerink) who were on the call asking questions. If they don't raise their PTs up from $25, what do they see that we don't?? This is just a plain UGLY market but Insmed has barely suffered those negative sentiments. As for the many positives, the CONVERT trial being in over 100 sites is a HUGE stamp of interest around the world.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    $28 passed - new 52 week high set

    by jd39souza98 Aug 6, 2015 9:47 AM
    justarook04 justarook04 Aug 6, 2015 9:58 AM Flag

    jd - the market is tanking now but what a RIDE that was. Unless something changes (again) we most likely will test $26 again (damn). NONE of us expected over $28.50 today I bet.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • justarook04 by justarook04 Aug 6, 2015 9:47 AM Flag

    Is $29 in the cards today? What a head fake earlier.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Comment here re Conference Call

    by mike75x5 Aug 6, 2015 8:21 AM
    justarook04 justarook04 Aug 6, 2015 9:07 AM Flag

    I do find it quite interesting that there were 10 deaths due to NTM overall and only one death (patient) was in the Arikayce treatment arm (as I interpret it). NTM does "kill" unfortunately!!!

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Second Quarter and Update

    by ries123 Aug 6, 2015 7:37 AM
    justarook04 justarook04 Aug 6, 2015 8:56 AM Flag

    I also agree with NOT pursuing another company/drug unless it is in OUR favor/benefit!!!

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Second Quarter and Update

    by ries123 Aug 6, 2015 7:37 AM
    justarook04 justarook04 Aug 6, 2015 8:26 AM Flag

    There are no "negative" surprises and a few good updates (PH III trial is now planned for about 100 global sites). I don't see a PPS downturn of any significance.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    recent run up

    by zinsinus Aug 5, 2015 1:18 PM
    justarook04 justarook04 Aug 5, 2015 5:04 PM Flag

    Doing fine Historian but which THEY are you referring to? I have three Analyst firms whose PTs (2 at $25 and 1 at $27) that have said and done nothing (too). I don't have issue with Insmed or its management (being quiet). Either way Janney ($33), Wainwright ($30), UBS ($34) and Piper J ($51) are still looking "up". Maybe JMP has their PT at $30 too. But Cowen, Leerink and CITI are now looking in the rear view mirror. Let's see who shows up at the CC tomorrow.

    Sentiment: Buy

INSM
25.69+0.56(+2.23%)Aug 28 4:00 PMEDT