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Insmed Incorporated Message Board

justarook04 204 posts  |  Last Activity: 15 hours ago Member since: Apr 13, 2004
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  • Reply to

    Biotech index (IBB and XLV) both down

    by jd39souza98 Jul 15, 2014 2:22 PM
    justarook04 justarook04 Jul 15, 2014 3:11 PM Flag

    ECYT almost trading at cash value, CNCE down big, GLYC, FOLD too. Overselling at best. Hard to recover from these beatings.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    INSM must be breaking down

    by yonglili2000 Jul 15, 2014 10:45 AM
    justarook04 justarook04 Jul 15, 2014 1:10 PM Flag

    B-L, the real problem I see is many BIOs track the XBI (or overall NASDAQ) down significantly but rarely recover same when the overall index is where the massacre started. Seems programmed or manipulated on the negative side/slant.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Time to add more

    by zake1 Jul 15, 2014 10:34 AM
    justarook04 justarook04 Jul 15, 2014 10:38 AM Flag

    well the MM's achieved the proverbial 10% correction here but the NASDAQ (Russell) are contributing to the downturn across the BIO board. The "Red death" is back like it was early last week.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • justarook04 justarook04 Jul 14, 2014 10:09 AM Flag

    jd, I still believe the Merck/IDIX buyout sets the bar for smaller BIOs with promising drugs. That was for $3.85B for a promising Hepatitus C pipeline. But there are many "players" in that market - though quite lucrative. What makes Insmed unique is it really will have the ONLY approved NTM drug/market for a period of time. Many more indications beyond that. The "market" does not understand NTM and the seriousness or prevalence globally (growing). So, even if this week there was a serious buyout offer (or has been for awhile after BT granted), I would see it at $4B which would equate to almost $100.shr. The valuation of the indications and patients would drive that and as we progress, the price increases. S,o why would a big Pharma wait? We shall see but I expected a PR this week saying something about at least a partnership or the FDA/EMA discussions.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • justarook04 justarook04 Jul 14, 2014 8:20 AM Flag

    Dorian, maybe see you on the "other" board?

    Sentiment: Buy

  • justarook04 justarook04 Jul 12, 2014 8:44 AM Flag

    I suspect that at most we may see no more than 50M shares outstanding over time ONLY if we need cash but that seems unlikely now so 40M (or actually 43M? with options) would be where we sit for awhile. This also assumes there is funding from a partnership or we get more money from Hercules for a short period of time. Lewis seemed quite confident that a Phase IV trial would only cost $15M ( he mentioned these trials (NTM) we not as costly a few months ago. The timing of the "shelf" and options issued at $12.48 was "impeccable".

    Sentiment: Buy

  • I don't remember "Medical Affairs" identified before:
    Job Title Department Location

    Associate Director, Health Economics and Outcomes Research Medical Affairs Bridgewater, NJ
    Associate Director, Medical Communications Medical Affairs Bridgewater, NJ

    Sentiment: Buy

  • justarook04 justarook04 Jul 11, 2014 5:36 PM Flag

    I agree with BEC but IF I had to be given a choice of a buyout, I used to believe $2B or $2,5B - not anymore. The IDIX buyout by Merck for $3.85B set the bar (my opinion) for companies with a pipeline but no approval. So, with that, I am thinking my minimum would be $75 per share but more likely $100 ($4B). This could happen if there were a bidding war. But for now, the value (as Blueeyedcatch has stated) is actually more than what we think today. Exclusitivity (patents thru 2028) is just the start. Expanded indications beyond NTM and CF. This is a GLOBAL product which would have little or no competition if the results we have seen continue or even get better.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • justarook04 justarook04 Jul 11, 2014 4:19 PM Flag

    If you are asking me, I am thinking partnership (Japan most likely), or a partnership for sales in the US, Canada and Europe or FDA/EMA meetings announcements. I doubt a secondary is needed this year and maybe a buyout is being discussed. Not sure WHY they met with JMP securities in early June but I believe it was to assist with Insmed's valuation (they already have Piper Jaffray's from a May meeting). All this is in MHO.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Lots of possible PRs looming.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Brean resumes coverage at $22

    by justarook04 Jul 8, 2014 8:17 AM
    justarook04 justarook04 Jul 11, 2014 1:43 PM Flag

    Merck also spent $3.85B (or agreed to) on IDIX 9 days before opting out of ECYT partnership. They paid too much for the "potential" of IDIX's Hepatitis C pipeline. It just made sense that they would decide to move on. Had Endocyte not done a secondary for $21 to raise over $100M in cash, what would the PPS be today?

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Just a list...Or not?

    by labois4u Jul 10, 2014 4:36 PM
    justarook04 justarook04 Jul 11, 2014 8:57 AM Flag

    BWD - I have been searching "news" on Insmed (as others have) daily. I did not see where Insmed was mentioned in July's meeting. The last info was from the May Poster Presentation. Was something said/done?

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Nasdaq today looks to be very ugly

    by justarook04 Jul 10, 2014 8:25 AM
    justarook04 justarook04 Jul 10, 2014 10:00 AM Flag

    We have not named a new CMO either nor have a Sales force. So, a buyout is dependent on the FDA and EMA approval (or positive opinion) but maybe a partnership is too. Remember, Brennan has been in place (on the board) for almost 45 days and he has BIG pharma experience.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Nasdaq today looks to be very ugly

    by justarook04 Jul 10, 2014 8:25 AM
    justarook04 justarook04 Jul 10, 2014 9:23 AM Flag

    Dorian, if we get acquired, we will all move on. LOL except maybe Terry who might take a few years to figure it out.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Odd that after the 3.5 day holiday the market makers have decided to reevaluate stocks and basically correct them again (see April 2014). The pre-market is showing an almost 1% decline on Nasdaq. Most BIOs will follow this down (if history repeats). Hang in there the nefarious traders (hmmmmm T_I) will most likely be having their day.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    FMR LLC....

    by insmhistorian Jul 8, 2014 10:45 PM
    justarook04 justarook04 Jul 10, 2014 8:05 AM Flag

    Since we are on the subject, let's see (of these) who held (or added) in the 2nd Qtr since they most likely bought their shares in the mid to upper teens in Jan-Mar this year. We should see the new "holdings"n later than August 15th (as Historian has indicated)

    Owner Name Date Shared Held Change (Shares)Change (%)Value (in 1,000s)

    DEERFIELD MANAGEMENT CO 03/31/2014 2,016,147 added 963,902 91.60 38,468
    FRANKLIN RESOURCES INC 03/31/2014 1,452,200 added 457,500 45.99 27,708
    MARSHALL WACE LLP 03/31/2014 415,299 brand new add 415,299 New 7,924
    BARCLAYS GLOBAL INVESTORS UK HOLDINGS LTD 03/31/2014 1,401,192 added 341,179 32.19 26,735
    PERCEPTIVE ADVISORS LLC 03/31/2014 340,000 brand new add 340,000 New 6,487
    OXFORD ASSET MANAGEMENT 03/31/2014 312,397 brand new add 312,397 New 5,961
    TOURBILLON CAPITAL PARTNERS LP 03/31/2014 700,000 added 275,000 64.71 13,356
    PUTNAM INVESTMENTS LLC 03/31/2014 241,859 brand new add 241,859 New 4,615
    WELLS FARGO & COMPANY/MN 03/31/2014 2,130,011 added 222,232 11.65 40,641
    BATTERYMARCH FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT INC 03/31/2014 184,300 brand new add 184,300 New 3,516
    SUSQUEHANNA INTERNATIONAL GROUP, LLP 03/31/2014 180,440 added 167,272 1,270.29 3,443
    AMERIPRISE FINANCIAL INC 03/31/2014 934,020 added 154,141 19.77 17,821
    GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC 03/31/2014 166,179 added 151,091 1,001.40 3,171
    NICHOLAS INVESTMENT PARTNERS, LP 03/31/2014 129,567 brand new add 129,567 New 2,472
    LORD, ABBETT & CO. LLC 03/31/2014 121,972 brand new add 121,972 New 2,327

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    19.12 and rising

    by jd39souza98 Jul 9, 2014 10:48 AM
    justarook04 justarook04 Jul 9, 2014 10:55 AM Flag

    well the volume has picked up the last 25 minutes by over 60K shares. NASDAQ still seems to have a hold on many BIOs as they swing along with the ups and downs. Insmed needs to break away from that (again).

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    fast money

    by lux19insm Jul 8, 2014 5:49 PM
    justarook04 justarook04 Jul 9, 2014 8:17 AM Flag

    Maybe Novartis (which would ditch Tobi eventually) then they would own that NTM market for quite awhile. Pure speculation but the changes in early April had an interesting twist with Drayton Wise being added:

    Drayton Wise has joined as Senior Director of Commercial Operations reporting to Matthew Pauls, Chief Commercial Officer. He will focus on the design and build-out of key parts of the Company's commercial infrastructure. Previously, Mr. Wise worked at Novartis, where he led the U.S. sales launch of the TOBI Podhaler, Novartis' leading product for the treatment of CF.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • justarook04 justarook04 Jul 8, 2014 4:04 PM Flag

    Fidelity sold a decent portion of their shares when the Phase III trial for CF was misread and the market overreacted. Old news

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    UBS reiterates..

    by jfm4112 Jul 8, 2014 11:02 AM
    justarook04 justarook04 Jul 8, 2014 11:10 AM Flag

    Roth too at $28PT

    Sentiment: Buy

INSM
13.18-0.11(-0.83%)Sep 18 4:00 PMEDT

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