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Insmed Incorporated Message Board

justarook04 457 posts  |  Last Activity: 35 minutes ago Member since: Apr 13, 2004
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  • Reply to

    I'm looking for a buy out in the $35-40 range

    by bear_bull88 Mar 31, 2016 12:57 PM
    justarook04 justarook04 Mar 31, 2016 7:03 PM Flag

    $40M gamebirdy? Sanofi gets $10m/year only and I bet if they don't deliver in 2016, that contract is gone. The initial royalty from VF is $40M, then there are milestone payments and 2x% royalties on sales of Veltassa.. VF does all the leg work (EU/MAA expense). Many companies do this. We still own US, Japan (and Canada??) market.

  • It is amazing the destructive power of SI when it gets applied to any decent stock or news. Relypsa NEEDS a PR that shakes the SI roots in order to pull away from this stranglehold. It makes all the DD done futile. It makes any approved drug suspect. It makes any progress a negative impact. Has anyone seen any S-4 (sell or buy filings by major Institutions) in this past quarter? Almost every single TUTE is millions underwater except those who loaned out their shares.

  • Reply to

    $27.76 01/04/16- Now $13.26

    by golongin2008 Apr 1, 2016 3:15 PM
    justarook04 justarook04 Apr 1, 2016 4:05 PM Flag

    wrong golong. Despite the lagging of the XBI today and yesterday, both the IBB and XBI are down considerably from December. Biotechs had their worst quarter in a LONG time in 2016.

  • Estimated Drug Cost and Savings for this Plan

    Information below describes the In-Network coverage for Medicare-covered benefits. Authorization rules may apply.

    Express Scripts Holding Company
    Express Scripts Medicare - Choice (PDP)
    Plan Rating: 4

    Summary of your medications and coverage

    Medications Plan Coverage Your Annual Cost Annual Savings
    Veltassa 16.8 gram oral powder packet Covered $2,485 $4,987
    Your total annual drug savings: $4,987

    Details of your monthly drug cost and savings

    Month/Your Cost/Your Savings/Plan Coverage Level

    January $402/$221-Deductible Coverage Initial Coverage

    Veltassa 16.8 gram oral powder packet

    February /$42/$581-Initial Coverage (Medicare coverage kicked in this month)

    Veltassa 16.8 gram oral powder packet

    March /$42/$581-Initial Coverage

    Veltassa 16.8 gram oral powder packet

  • Reply to

    Orbimed and financing options

    by stockkman19 Apr 2, 2016 11:44 AM
    justarook04 justarook04 Apr 3, 2016 1:12 PM Flag

    Orbimed owns 7.4M shares. They had 7.9M until mid-December. They have "lost", in value, over $100M since Relypsa was at $28/shr last December. Let's see if they sold any in 1st Qtr 2016 (have not seen any forms-S4 or 13F/G either (yet). If they have not sold any in 2016, one could surmise they are FULLY aware of what the strategy has been at least since early December, 2015.

  • justarook04 justarook04 Apr 4, 2016 8:51 AM Flag

    I also did not post the last 6 months of 2016 where the co-pay went up based on insurance "extensions" beyond 2nd Qtr (which seemed weird). The way to look at this (as vs1234gs suggests) it IS good news. Blue Cross and some others need to update their medicare (D-drug) coverage and probably will 2nd Qtr (soon). This is a BIG deal IMO.

  • Reply to

    breakout over 14.50 is due

    by jockne40 Apr 4, 2016 10:37 AM
    justarook04 justarook04 Apr 4, 2016 10:52 AM Flag

    Maybe but the overall NASDAQ/market is tanking and it looks to be bring the IBB/XBI down with it. We, of course, are collateral damage as many others are dropping from decent highs. This is just an extension of the 1st Qtrs fiasco. XBI should be above $55 by now and IBB above $275.

  • justarook04 justarook04 Apr 4, 2016 4:22 PM Flag

    Bob - I saw that medicare (in this case) picked up in February - when Veltassa was added to Formulary. So, as you posted it reduced out of pocket from $402 to $42/mo which ends up about with a $500 annual cost to patient versus the $7K/12 months. This was just a "real" example of what is occurring for medicare eligible patients once their plans pick Veltassa up. This should help alleviate that COST concern or obstacle. One other item that I would like to reiterate; if Relypsa is paying Sanofi $2.5M a quarter for sales/services.....then you can bet Relypsa better see more than $10m in sales in 2016 or Sanofi's contract will be nixed. Actually we should be seeing $20M in sales (2 to 1) just from the Sanofi team's effort. All IMHO

  • Which would indicate (besides NASDAQ's drubbing), that there is downward pressure on small caps. So, we have NASDAQ's overall impact, XBI and small cap indexes impacting the PPS here. Been going on since beginning of January. By the way, did anyone see ANY ZS-9 news on any active trials (besides ZS-004E)? None of the 3 active trials look to be completed/reviewable by May 26th. Why would the FDA ignore that?

  • Reply to

    Paint the close

    by antoniojr93 Apr 5, 2016 3:17 PM
    justarook04 justarook04 Apr 5, 2016 3:24 PM Flag

    There was a 40K trade about 30 minutes ago but the PPS actually went down a few cents.

  • Reply to

    Another try to take over $14

    by biotrader888 Apr 6, 2016 9:34 AM
    justarook04 justarook04 Apr 6, 2016 9:48 AM Flag

    Again, lagging XBI AND IBB as are many other BIOs. The m's are playing with too many indexes (small caps too). very frustrating. If it were to break 14.25, then we have something (LOL).

  • Reply to

    Another try to take over $14

    by biotrader888 Apr 6, 2016 9:34 AM
    justarook04 justarook04 Apr 6, 2016 10:31 AM Flag

    For example - maybe this is where Relypsa is heading for their financing overhang????

    "Anacor rises as it raises $250 million in convertible senior notes"
    Anacor Pharmaceuticals (ANAC) announced in a March 31, 2016, press release “the pricing of its offering of $250,000,000 aggregate principal amount of 2.00% Convertible Senior Notes due 2023 (the “Convertible Notes”) in a private placement under the Securities Act of 1933.”

    The press release went on to say, “The Convertible Notes will bear interest at a fixed rate of 2.00% per year, payable semiannually in arrears on April 15 and October 15 of each year, beginning on October 15, 2016.” The notes will mature on April 15, 2023. The conversion rate will start at 14.1 shares of common stock for every $1,000 of convertible notes.

    Anacor Pharmaceuticals rose 7.8% and closed at $61.51 on April 4, 2016. It was trading above its 20-day moving average. Year-to-date, the stock has fallen 45.6%. Anacor Pharmaceuticals has a book value of $1.17 per share. With its current pricing, the stock is trading at a price-to-book value of 52.6x. Some of its peers such as Acadia Pharmaceuticals (ACAD), Intercept Pharmaceuticals (ICPT), and Horizon Pharma (HZNP) are trading at price-to-book values of 15.3x, 5.4x, and 2.2x, respectively. Anacor has a weight of 0.6% in IBB’s portfolio.

  • One would think, on a day like this, these beaten down BIOs would excel and exceed the XBI finally - not yet for some reason. I have Concert (CNCE) up over 5% WITH NO COMPLETED PHASE III trial and Relypsa is hamstrung by it's "over exaggerated IMO" spend in 2016.

  • justarook04 by justarook04 Apr 6, 2016 3:03 PM Flag

    There are 5200 shares on the ask at $14.50 which we can not break through (yet).

    This "capping" sure is bizarre on a day like this. Over 1m shrs traded so far with one hour to go!

  • Reply to

    Capped at $14.50

    by justarook04 Apr 6, 2016 3:03 PM
    justarook04 justarook04 Apr 6, 2016 3:08 PM Flag

    Took a 30K BUY to push through $14.50 - let us not close below $14

  • Reply to

    Capped at $14.50

    by justarook04 Apr 6, 2016 3:03 PM
    justarook04 justarook04 Apr 6, 2016 4:17 PM Flag

    OK but in any event we pushed through what we thought was a "blockade" at $14 earlier and $14.50 at close. We lagged by almost 1.5% the XBI too. Realistically we should be (with today's action) between $14.75 and $15. Maybe tomorrow we get attacked by the bears (again). Hopefully we hold $14 and maybe push to $15. It did not hurt us to have Raymond James (only $17 PT) and BREAN ($26 PT) join in coverage of Relypsa. After yesterday's market retreat, today was a bit encouraging.

  • Insmed lagged most of the day but late rally put us up over 7.7%. Not sure if this PPS rise is only due to XBI mild recovery or partially EMA anticipation? IBB is up almost 1% early on today.

  • justarook04 by justarook04 Apr 7, 2016 9:06 AM Flag

    only 500 shares but it has been quite awhile since I saw Endocyte up in PM. More important is that big sell last week which brought the PPS below $3.15, did nothing to deter the move back to $3.50 and above.

  • Reply to

    Pt Numbers 2

    by firedin2010 Apr 7, 2016 6:54 AM
    justarook04 justarook04 Apr 7, 2016 9:27 AM Flag

    fired thx - If in fact what you have researched is mostly accurate, one would have to believe that any BP that is remotely interested (or those others in the ZSPH bidding), would HAVE to be interested in getting into this market (which is greater than CKD). So, how is this potential market - target not being more emphasized?

  • justarook04 justarook04 Apr 7, 2016 1:28 PM Flag

    Shorts are covering and trying to bring the PPS under $20!

INSM
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