This post of yours is another classic and a candidate for ballcoach's greatest "hits".
Re inventory: I've never said Tesla has zero inventory. I've posted about the loaner cars available for sale as well as a small number of immediate sale aka inventory cars at galleries. The difference is I'm putting that figure at 600 units give or take a few hundred and you're at something like 2000-4000. So far you have only speculation to back your view. We'll see. And I do intend to visit a store myself.
I've never believed everything you post is a lie but rather much of it is distorted. Look no further than 2014 units sold. You claimed to be right despite being wrong even after several revisions. You were even off on your country estimates.
"You've been 100% wrong 100% of the time about Tesla, the business."
Now THIS is a classic! I've been expecting strong sales growth for the 2 1/2 years I've been posting here and so far I've been right. And you? Over the same period, you've been saying Tesla is failing, will fail, there's no demand, etc. etc. etc. Tesla is burning cash and raised more? Shocking! Sales chiefs have changed? Who cares? If these "prescient" insights make you feel better, fine. The 45% yoy increase in units which defied your forecast is far more important to me.
YOU are calling ME smug? LOL! Seriously, that's funny!
Care to post anything to support what you've attributed to me? Anything?
I hope so. Still have a bunch of hedges that I'd like to cover/roll.
Sticking with your theory about Tesla planning to sell 7 million cars in the U.S. in 2025?
Santelli is all for free markets and free speech-except when he disagrees. He censored the other guy, pretending they were out of time but he somehow managed to kill another 10-15 seconds after.
What a disgrace.
Sounds like you're referring to your comrades in the legal biz particularly the PI and class action thieves.
"...the privileged elite who feel smug & righteous..."
Yup, sounds like a good description of most lawyers.
"...in a car that only the top 0.1% can afford..."
And you're bad at math.
Maybe you should spend less time on your computer. After all, out there in Montana it's coal powered and you've made it clear how much you hate coal power.
In trying to keep it simple, I left out that under SCE's non-TOU residential rate plans, charges are based on total monthly usage and are tiered so the more you use the more you pay per kwh. A dual meter setup, which is what some EV owners do, might be one way to get the lower rates for home "baseload" usage while the 2nd meter would be under the TOU plan and cover the rest of the monthly usage.
You're probably right about MX's accounted for in inventory but I'm preparing a list of questions for IR and it'll be a good one to ask.
There's no disagreement that there are inventory and loaner cars. I used 4 cars average at each of 150 galleries and Service Centers as a baseless WAG to arrive at 600. You're right that the big question is "how many"?
I know we'll disagree about transparency but I've seen plenty of simple concepts that although repeatedly explained again and again continue to be misrepresented and distorted here and in other venues including the media. For that reason, I'm ok with Tesla buffering some info. Example: look at the huge disparity in monthly sales in Norway. The large increases and severe drops month over month are meaningless as far as the overall trend yet some still can't grasp, or are intentionally ignoring that fact that Tesla doesn't allocate supply to every geography at the some rate every month. Sales are neither rising nor falling at the rate that month over month sales changes imply.
There are many caveats and conditions but let's keep it simple for now. The max price differential you posted is $.20/kwh, the same as what I posted. In my SCE territory, you can sign up for a TOU rate so that all power used at a certain time is at the lowest rate. Again, I'm greatly simplifying but now assume each 1 kwh battery pack saves that differential each day. That's $73 (.20*365) per year. N0m0renancy posted info from an article suggesting a $330/kwh SolarCity battery system cost so payback in 4 1/2 years. Net $ benefits from the system will depend on usable capacity over time.
I again acknowledge that there are numerous caveats that I'm leaving out to simplify including the unlikely 100% utilization of the battery's capacity, degradation, unfeasibility of this system for low usage customers, the risk of rate differentials declining, etc. I just wanted to give a very basic idea of how such a system might possibly work. Had the differential pricing effectively been a few pennies per kwh, we wouldn't even be discussing this nor would SCity or Tesla even be considering it.
Where have I gone wrong?
Thanks for the reference to the CT article. I've been looking for a ballpark cost figure and the $330/kwh is not only in the ballpark but under my $350 estimate which was admittedly based on very scant actual data.
Will continue this on temagami's new thread on this topic but want to note my interest in this has nothing to do with backup power for when there's a power outage other than it being a side benefit.
Your calculations are flawed. You assume the 1400 cars not delivered in Dec and pushed into Jan are the only in transit cars and leave out the cars in transit for overseas delivery that won't be delivered in q1. I'm ballparking it 1700. Now we're at 1400+1700+600 (loaner and "inventory")=3700 in finished good inventory.
Next, while not very significant, q4 only had 2 or maybe 3 weeks of D model deliveries so the q1 mix will have a higher COGS due to a much higher mix of D models so add maybe 6% to COGS.
Beyond tweaking my figures for overseas transit and inventory cars, there is still a discrepancy between my estimates and inventory however there could be plausible explanations no one has considered. How are MS' traded in for D models accounted for? Is it possible there are 500-1000 of these used MS' in inventory and if so are they part of finished goods? It's been suggested that quite a few MX have been made for testing. Could there be a few hundred out there and if so wouldn't they be included in finished goods?
I can't prove there isn't something nefarious going on but those who are casting aspersions need to adjust their presumptions first.
"I'm simply amazed you don't believe me."
I'm simply amazed you think anyone not on the short side WOULD take what you say at face value.
Let's clarify things. Forget the 5000 cars you originally said are in inventory, Iet's lower that for the moment. Are you saying that Tesla has roughly 4000 new cars in inventory for sale, cars that are not intended for a customer that has placed an order? If that is what you are saying, what other possibility is there other than you are claiming that Tesla is fraudulently misleading the public and investors?
I intend to.
I DID answer your question. It's just not the answer you wanted to hear.
I reject your notion that Tesla has anything near 5000 inventory cars for sale in the U.S. or in the world for that matter and I've given my view on the difference between production and deliveries. Even an average of 6 cars in each gallery and service center only gets you too 900 cars and I think that figure is on the high side. I suspect some of the inventory that does exist could be from a surge of D buyers trading in used MS' but those aren't new and therefore don't apply to your argument.
A rebuttal to one of the few things that could undermine the CA rail scam, which we're both against? Actually, which I'm more against since I'm a CA taxpayer and will get stuck paying for it even beyond that of a federal taxpayer?
We'll get an idea later this year on the viability of Tesla/SCity battery packs. If you have some calcs that show it can't work I'd be interested in seeing them, otherwise I'll leave it at this: in my SCE area there's a $.20/kwh price differential for storage to target.
At least we aren't polar opposites re delays and inventory.
justthefactsmaam_ok • Feb 28, 2015 2:21 PM
What, I'm dense because I didn't "recognize the "increase" in sales came from markets not there the prior year?"
But you and the others in your camp keep telling us that China is dead. Europe is dead. Not many going to Japan or Australia. Norway is saturated. Demand in the U.S. is plummeting. All together, that doesn't sound like the basis for a 40% increase. Unless you're playing both sides against the middle. Which you do.
You're so pathetic. When the initial surge in deliveries suits your needs, you take them into consideration. When it doesn't, you don't. No matter. When q1, maybe q2 results come out, we'll know who's right. After all, there won't be any new markets to skew the results and if demand is dropping as you say, Tesla will not just meet or slightly miss, they will have a huge miss on deliveries. Anything short of a large miss due to weak demand means you will FINALLY be right and I'll be wrong.
Of course, you'll continue to talk about you, bring up the meaningless points you're been right on (sales exec gone-who cares?) while glossing over the sales figures that you've been woefully wrong on."
justthefactsmaam_ok • Feb 28, 2015 1:38 AM
If the business is choking, how did Tesla sell 40% more cars in 2014? Why don't YOU explain THAT?
I can't say for sure what's going on with the finished goods in inventory but we know that beyond loaners and a few cars for immediate sale the bulk should be cars in transit. Allowing for an average of 3 loaners/"inventory" cars at 150 sales/service centers, 1200 deliveries pushed from Dec to Jan and 2 weeks of production in transit overseas gets you pretty close to the number of mysteriously missing cars.
If things were so bad why would Tesla pick up the property in Latham? 350,000 square feet. If things are so bad, why would they bother spending the money?
First, do you know ANYONE and I mean even ONE person who has bought a stock based on "Wall Street" anything? I know a lot of people who own stocks and not a single one has made a decision based on any analyst.
Second, guys like you and your comrades have their definition of weakness. Bulls, myself included, have another. Speaking for myself, if I see demand weakness I'll trade accordingly which could mean hedging more aggressively, trimming or exiting long positions. Very unlikely to short but won't completely rule it out.
LOL You guys are hilarious!
So if I have your theories right, more of the elitist and spoiled rich guys that can afford an MS will be enticed into buying one if they have to wait longer for it because rich guys that can afford to not wait for things will want to wait in this case. As part of that theory, Tesla is making not just a few but a large number of cars for inventory rather than delivering cars to customers that have ordered cars with the sole intent of making these customers wait longer to make demand seem higher to further attract more customers who will want to wait longer to (repeat)...
And Tesla bought the 350,000 sq ft facility in Latham because demand is weak but they needed to spend the money for more space for more production to make even more cars that will sit on a lot that will tie up cash to fake demand.
Whew!!! You guys have very active minds!
Feb ave per day: 31
Lifetime ave per day: 22.2
It'll be interesting to see if the plunge in X reservations reasonably speculated as being due to the intro of the D models has reversed or if Feb was a fluke.
Look at page 9. I'm concerned about these stats however, as I thought air and rail were more energy efficient than autos.
You were spot on with your concern about vacuum pumps. If I'm reading fig 13 right, there's a good reason for the design's spec not going over 99.9% vacuum.
How about this:
First, from Zepol's website:
"Zepol provides the fastest access to U.S. import and export data available."
Next, a reply to PS from mikestesla who btw Paulo never responded to:
"Here is perfect example of how you are clueless why the shipments declined but the data you are using is correct ! ZEPOL collects the data from US Customs , not Japan Customs on export and if the ships are parked 5 miles in the ocean for months do not unload the containers in the ports because of the backlog caused by the long strikes on the west coast it will not show on ZEPOL screen !!! The west coast strikes have slowed imports for ALL AUTO makers since June 2014 and that has direct reflection on Panasoic shipments to TSLA as well !!! At the moment there is 2 months of backlog at the west coast ports and in 2-3 months from now you will see that ZEPOL will show that shipments from Panasonic to TSLA will start to go up because the port strike ended last week."