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Tesla Motors, Inc. Message Board

justthefactsmaam_ok 2867 posts  |  Last Activity: Dec 28, 2015 1:02 AM Member since: Feb 2, 1999
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  • justthefactsmaam_ok justthefactsmaam_ok Dec 28, 2015 1:02 AM Flag

    ballcoach

    Some guy on a message board is talking smack about your wife and you keep replying?

    "Wise up? Does that mean when I side with your opinions about Tesla?"

    LOL! That's a classic! You interpreted my comment about you taking n0m0's points and wising up as taking MY side about Tesla? Um, n0m0 has consistently been a critic of Tesla and Elon. His overall view is negative as is yours except he makes far better points. He also uses more data to make his points and let's his words display his intelligence whereas you mostly keep trying to tell everyone how amazing you are. He also hasn't proclaimed how he was correct about something when he wasn't, unlike you who's missed most if not every delivery forecast you've made and then post how you nailed it. And you never admitted you were wrong when I proved you made obviously wrong statements about Tesla's PPE. There are others but that's enough.

    "Lastly, what am I going to learn?"

    Good point. You've learned nothing over the last 3 years. And except for a couple of things early on, I've learned nothing of value from you. Too bad. As I've said before, you had potential. You just couldn't get past you.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • I appreciate the on-topic content of your posts the most of anyone who posts here and hope you'll continue posting despite the flood of garbage drowning out useful discussion. Actually, I probably enjoy the posts about your current and previous real life experiences the most. They add to your credibility, at least as much as it can be verified on an anonymous message board. The irony hasn't escaped me that there's but one long among you, a long with whom I agree on nearly everything Tesla while being mostly in disagreement with him in regards to the environment and politics yet the opposite is mostly true with the rest of you where a non-Tesla view has been expressed. And no, my view on Tesla hasn't changed.

    Should also give a nod to ahoykapitan's entertaining posts and futurecartsla, who hasn't posted much recently.

    I know I've missed a few others but they haven't posted in a while so couldn't recall their names. Between the volume of garbage posts, recycled FUD and the religious hatred of anything Elon I decided to save the time and just lurk.

    n0m0: while there's always food for thought in your on-topic posts, I especially enjoyed your scathing posts to ballcoach. While the narcissistic bully backs down to you, he's too busy being the same thin skinned and blustery fool to comprehend the numerous useful, constructive and actionable insights that you were spot on in pointing out. If he ever wises up which is doubtful you should send him a bill. His latest barrage of ridiculous posts as evidence he's learned nothing.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • After dramatically dropping off, MS VIN assignments have reversed strongly to the upside. Of course, a one month reversal does not a full year make but it's interesting that the YTD annualized assignment rate...comes out to 50,000. Not all VINS end up being assigned to a car that gets delivered so it's not an exact indicator but it's anecdotal evidence that for whatever reason orders appear to have picked up for the time being.

    MX: despite some people holding off on reserving an MX or ordering an MS until specs and pricing are announced, MX reservations have increased by 1000 since the end of July. If the trend continues it'll be the largest reservation month ever for the MX even after a strong July. Can we agree that everyone reserving an MX at this time knows about the "D" versions of the MS? At least for now, the MS/MX cannibalization argument is in question. Cue the conspiracy theorists who will say Tesla is assigning far more VINS than there are orders or reservations. I can't prove that's not true so file this under the category "anything's possible".

    Sentiment: Buy

  • justthefactsmaam_ok justthefactsmaam_ok Aug 21, 2015 11:07 PM Flag

    "Tesla investors have underestimated the extent..."

    "After the Q3 results, it will be apparent that Tesla will need another capital raise in 2016. After Q4, it will be apparent that Tesla took only six months to blow through its Q3 capital raise. By mid 2016, it will be inescapably clear that the GF was a terrible idea, and will be a cash drain for years to come. Those will not be a happy reckonings."

    After repeatedly warning about a cap raise, we finally got one-and the stock went up. For nearly 3 years, I've heard the warnings about cap raises and so many of the other same old dire warnings and predictions that have been of no value. It's those on the bearish side that have underestimated everything yet when their shrill warnings turn out to be more of the same, nearly all of them put the blame not on themselves but stupid longs and/or manipulation. As of today, after a recent cap raise and a huge market selloff, tsla is around 20% off of it's all time high-around the same as many stocks (belying the much smaller decline of the major averages). Sure, things could change. Tsla remains a high risk stock but it's the bears that have constantly underestimated Tesla to date so maybe they should go back to the drawing board.

    One last thing to consider: LR and I have similar views on EVs and Tesla but not for exactly the same reasons so if Tesla succeeds we'll celebrate different victories but consider this: IF Tesla is selling 500,000 cars/year in 2020, global EV sales by all companies will likely be in the millions. That will mean no more govt subsidies, cost competitive EV vs ICE options for most car buyers, vastly lower oil demand (North American oil independence for the U.S., big trouble for Russia, Iran, etc.), jobs and economic benefits for Tesla's CA and NV operations at the expense of some foreign competitors, cleaner air (possibly excluding China), etc. Who's against that? Set aside tsla the stock, who wins if Tesla fails? Who benefits?

    Sentiment: Buy

  • justthefactsmaam_ok justthefactsmaam_ok Aug 21, 2015 10:29 PM Flag

    IBM has been working on this for years. It sounded good when I first heard about it back then but it's disappointing that it's still not ready for cost effective deployment.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Shorts

    by inertiatrader Aug 21, 2015 10:06 AM
    justthefactsmaam_ok justthefactsmaam_ok Aug 21, 2015 10:26 PM Flag

    Of course you did. Right after suggesting buying the stock and selling a Sept call-a trade that is currently under water.

    "My avg net price on the shorts was $255..."

    So that would be above $250, right?

    You're slimier than the stereotypical Wall Street guys.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Tesla strategy ..

    by inertiatrader Aug 20, 2015 12:10 PM
    justthefactsmaam_ok justthefactsmaam_ok Aug 21, 2015 10:20 PM Flag

    "If you follow my posts, you'll note all my trades with Tesla have been profitable if that means anything at all."

    Except for when you stated that tsla would never go above $250 again, ever. Then it exceeded that level by 4% within a week. And this trade isn't profitable unless the stock goes back up.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • justthefactsmaam_ok justthefactsmaam_ok Aug 19, 2015 9:42 PM Flag

    Model-X-Mule-Sightings/page253

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Conservative trailing stops

    by inertiatrader Aug 12, 2015 12:14 PM
    justthefactsmaam_ok justthefactsmaam_ok Aug 19, 2015 6:52 PM Flag

    "I'd still suggest who ever is holding Tesla at a price of $250 or above, it would be wise to take any gains, or losses. Just an opinion.
    The hype about ride sharing is utter nonsense. Classic attempt to pump the stock."

    Wow. After unequivocally saying that tsla wouldn't EVER go over $250, less than a week later it exceeds that level by 4%, is up 9% since your warning yet you're quick to give people more advice.

    Yes, it's all hype. Or another way to avoid saying you were wrong by blaming manipulation. Considering your posts on this thread, it looks to me like you're trying to do to the stock what you're accusing others of doing.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Apparently the design studio went live for a short time and someone grabbed a screenshot. It shows the base unit 90 is $87,500 AFTER incentives and tax savings. If correct, this high an entry price is a cause for some concern, possibly short term but definitely longer term.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Conservative trailing stops

    by inertiatrader Aug 12, 2015 12:14 PM
    justthefactsmaam_ok justthefactsmaam_ok Aug 19, 2015 2:37 PM Flag

    inertiatrader Aug 12, 2015 12:14 PM

    "As for those that bought $250 or above, get out now. It's a pure pipe dream that Tsla will see those levels anytime soon, or ever for that matter."

    A whole 5 days later...

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Board Regulars: Have you drove a Model S

    by dinotrader Aug 18, 2015 2:19 PM
    justthefactsmaam_ok justthefactsmaam_ok Aug 19, 2015 2:34 PM Flag

    "JTF, get your facts straight. Montana derives a more electricity from the combination of hydro and natural gas than from coal. Not that I am ashamed of clean coal (which is what we burn), because i most certainly am not."

    I'm having trouble finding more data but for 2011 and 2013 coal was the primary fuel for electricity in your state. In 2011 it was more than 50%. Your state uses a lot of coal, you've got "clean coal" yet when it comes to CA or EVs you're so sensitive to where their power comes from (and coal isn't even close to 50%)? Now I understand. I'm skeptical you or other coal proponents would choose to live downwind from a coal plant with their families.

    "Driving from Bozeman to Great Falls or Missoula or Kalispell I sure as heck don't want to be worried about some idiot battery indicator or where the next Supercharger is."

    No need to worry since there are Superchargers in Bozeman and Missoula and Butte and Superior.

    "Can I please be free, enjoy the open road, and not have to abide the constant hectoring of the nanny greenies?"

    How have greenies in your state been hectoring you and how have you been affected?

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Board Regulars: Have you drove a Model S

    by dinotrader Aug 18, 2015 2:19 PM
    justthefactsmaam_ok justthefactsmaam_ok Aug 18, 2015 6:49 PM Flag

    You drive a diesel while being concerned about power plant pollution due to EVs. You live in a state that mostly uses coal. Interesting.

    You're happy with your less costly, smaller and slower TDI. Fine. 600 mile range? Fine. BTW what's your annual mileage and how many days have you driven more than 200 miles or 400 miles without stopping for a meal? In other words, how many days would you have to be "constantly fretting about the battery discharge rate, and planning on the next SC stop"?

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Board Regulars: Have you drove a Model S

    by dinotrader Aug 18, 2015 2:19 PM
    justthefactsmaam_ok justthefactsmaam_ok Aug 18, 2015 5:44 PM Flag

    LOL!

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Conservative trailing stops

    by inertiatrader Aug 12, 2015 12:14 PM
    justthefactsmaam_ok justthefactsmaam_ok Aug 17, 2015 7:46 AM Flag

    "As for those that bought $250 or above, get out now. It's a pure pipe dream that Tsla will see those levels anytime soon, or ever for that matter."

    The stock is at $257 as I write this.

    At least your other questionable, to be charitable, idea of a 400 mile range Kia killing Gen 3 will take longer to be disproven.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • justthefactsmaam_ok justthefactsmaam_ok Aug 16, 2015 11:25 PM Flag

    Comparing Elon's integrity to Hillary's is a low blow. She is so fake, so untrustworthy.

    More OT: the financial and commodity guys I follow on Twitter do more Tweeting on politics than their area of expertise and it's nearly 100% against anything right of center politically, no Tweets that I can recall questioning the Left. And it's not just against the "non-left", it's virulently against them. Ironic that those they support hate them for being wealthy, for being on Wall Street, etc.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Another Significant Increase in Finished Goods

    by temagami67 Aug 8, 2015 10:11 AM
    justthefactsmaam_ok justthefactsmaam_ok Aug 16, 2015 11:09 PM Flag

    Correction on MX reservations. I was looking at U.S., not global so it's not 30/day vs 19/day, it's 39 vs 26. BTW the lifetime average is 23/day.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Another Significant Increase in Finished Goods

    by temagami67 Aug 8, 2015 10:11 AM
    justthefactsmaam_ok justthefactsmaam_ok Aug 16, 2015 11:06 PM Flag

    "The X is a bigger, uglier, and more expensive version of the S but with very little distinguishing features other than the gimmicky flipper rear doors."

    Ignoring the part that's opinion, you may be right that the MX is merely a larger MS but no one can say with certainty until specs and features are actually announced.

    "Tesla's growth from 2013 to 2014 was caused by geographic expansion. (What are Tesla's year-over year sales increase in the various national markets where they are now saddled with fixed expenses for sales boutiques, service centers, and superchargers?) From 2014 to 2015, growth came from the D versions, many of which were purchased by prior customers."

    By the end of q3, 2015 deliveries will have matched full year 2014 deliveries and that includes subtracting some 2015 deliveries that were pushed from 2014 and adding them back to 2014. What new markets have there been in 2015? Even if q4 deliveries slow to the q1 level (of course they could drop far lower) it would still represent a roughly 30% yoy increase.

    "Tesla reported 20k+ X reservations in the 4Q14 letter but since then not a peep ( remind you of when they used to report quarterly revenue from China before the fit hit the shan?) Musk knows how many of those reservations were converted to S D's and how many were just cancelled."

    Then how would you explain the increasing rate of MX reservations month over month, every month since at least February with July being the strongest month yet at 30/day compared to March at 19/day? These people know of the MS D options, they've seen pics of the mules, they have an idea what the pricing will be.

    "The market for $90k+ BEVs is small and has already been exploited."

    We view this differently; I see MS and MX as competition for cars around similar price points, not some EV niche.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Solving for X

    by dynamicviolence Aug 16, 2015 12:37 AM
    justthefactsmaam_ok justthefactsmaam_ok Aug 16, 2015 9:08 PM Flag

    "Last reported X reservation in China was 10 months ago."

    True. It was also when the last MS was ordered. ;-)

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Solving for X

    by dynamicviolence Aug 16, 2015 12:37 AM
    justthefactsmaam_ok justthefactsmaam_ok Aug 16, 2015 9:02 PM Flag

    From the IIHS:

    "Pickups and SUVs are proportionally more likely than cars to be in fatal single-vehicle crashes, especially rollovers. However, pickups and SUVs generally are heavier than cars, so occupant deaths in SUVs and pickups are less likely to occur in multiple-vehicle crashes."

    "in all, Tesla, in 12+ years, has yet to make a single operational decision resulting in success. Why end the dubious streak now?"

    Lol. Ok...

    Sentiment: Buy

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