What I found most interesting was the technical parts of the article and the efforts Randy made to theorize how Tesla could get the price down, battery sizing, etc. I think these technical aspects can be better debated than projected sales can be and considering how many people have said the expected Gen 3 pricing was impossible, I thought he did a good job offering reasonable possibilities. What did you guys think of these aspects of the article?
BTW one of the points that caught my eye was how the battery pack could be thinner based on his expected battery density and pack size, where the "hump" at the front of the current pack would be eliminated thereby offering a lower profile and drag coefficient for the car.
Temagami, I'm especially interested in your thoughts since you're an engineer and are middle of the road when it comes to Tesla.
Wrong. As pittyfuk pointed out, that title was on a piece from CS. Barron's has been bearish on Tesla for quite some time.
One is Trip Chowdry, who has made so many bad calls (strong dollar wasn't good for Tesla despite his claim) that I can't take him too seriously. The other is CS' Dan Galves:
"Analyst Dan Galves expects Tesla to deliver 11k-11.5k units in 2Q, ahead of the guidance of 10k-11k. Galves estimates that the volumes achieved by the company in April/May in North America and Europe were almost double of what was recorded in January/February. Even of the June volumes remain flat with March's volumes of around 6,350 units, the company could achieve 12,500."
If ballcoach's predictions of the departures of several of Tesla's sales execs is important to you, he is a prescient forecaster. If MS deliveries and demand are more important, he may not be the best forecaster:
ballcoach_30 • Nov 1, 2012 10:42 PM Flag
In no way do I imagine Tesla building 20,000 vehicles in 2013. Further, I simply don't see Tesla picking up even 5,000 ORDERS in 2013.
That said, forecast for 2013 is 6,000 vehicles produced. I also forecast a deposit bank of no more than 4,000 in 2013. This means, for those who are counting, I'm saying Tesla will build 800 vehicles in 2012. Customers will CANCEL to the tune of almost 5,000 in 2012-13. That means I'm saying a 50% cancel rate. 13,000 deposits today. 800 produced in 2012. 12,200 deposits remain from 2012. 6,000 produced in 2013. 6,200 deposits remain from 2012, supposedly. 4,000 total deposit bank in 2013 means virtually all of the 6,200 remaining 2012 deposits decline. I'll give Tesla the benefit of the doubt and say only 5,000 of those folks walk away.
I'll say it for the umpteenth time. Tesla will NOT meet sales or production goals. The market doesn't exist regardless of the hype. In fact, I'll go so far to say the entire stock deal is being manipulated for a company that can't even provide a quarter's worth of profit in 9 years.
ballcoach_30 • Nov 1, 2012 2:14 PM Flag
I'll make a claim! Tesla apparently has 13,000 reservations. I'll wager that Tesla will NOT hit a grand total of 21,000 sales in 2013, INCLUDING 2012 deliveries. If Tesla does, I'll gladly leave the board.
Now, how about Y-O-U?
My post was poorly worded. What I meant was there is more maintenance required for an ICE and even if that maintenance is free it's still time consuming. To expand that a bit, even though the 1 oil change I've had on my Volt in 2 years was free, it's still a pain to take it to the dealer and either wait for it or spend the time to get a ride home and back again. Even the Jiffy Lube's of the world usually take more than 30 minutes, sometimes much longer by the time they finish.
I've been expecting ASPs to decline so this would seem to support that, no?
FWIW I see declining ASPs as good and bad. Bad because margins will be lower. Good because I think it represents a more mainstream buyer and larger market. More mainstream buyers means more word of mouth to that larger market. I hope it will also get the word out that the MS isn't a $100,000+ car as is so often reported, that one can own an MS 70D for under $80k without subsidies and $70k with them in many states. Add in the gas savings and it's a much more compelling option for someone who does a lot of driving and is looking for a car in the roughly $60k and up price range.
Before someone says it, yes I did mention gas savings although I left out maintenance which even if free is still time consuming. My friend's brother is buying a 70D in part because he logs so many miles every year and wants to spend less on gas while also avoiding time at gas stations.
So after repeatedly and, in your own inimitable and abusive way, told us that you don't own stocks, it turns out that you don't just own mlp's but also one stock that you're admitting to. I guess it's good you're being honest about it after not being honest about it for so long. However, you've also said you aren't short tsla and don't short stocks. After repeatedly asking you why you ARE here and finding out that your general stock ownership comments weren't true, how can anyone take your word that you haven't been or aren't currently short tsla?
"This mornibg I bought 6-figures worth on one of those stocks."
If that is what he said, it contradicts numerous posts where he's said he doesn't invest in stocks although he has said he's in MLPs. Misunderstandings? Lies?
We know little about what's "under the hood" of the prototypes despite what what GM's plans are. Would you agree that the batteries and powertrain are far more important than having some prototype on the road? Maybe what's in the prototypes are adequate, maybe not.
Are you aware of anything regarding GM's plans for nationwide chargers to enable long distance travel let alone the charging rate?
A poor number to be sure but you should be aware that sales to different countries vary greatly month to month.
On the other hand, I've pointed out that shorts should be concerned that MS sales are as strong as they are DESPITE the weakness in China. Since China is the world's largest auto market, a sales increase there that's even in the ballpark of it's share of global sales will push MS sales well above estimates. And that isn't priced into the stock.
So ICE's aren't even useful for suicide?
Yet another nail in the coffin for them!
No offense at all.
My track record isn't stellar because I've hedged and have missed out on some gains. Futurecartsla has been long for a while so he's done better and lone_ranger has made a number of well timed and posted trades including selling then reversing himself and buying back in at a higher price before selling out at a much higher price. My point wasn't about whether I'm intelligent or not, it's about the clear lack of intelligence and knowledge from many of the bashers. On the other hand, I don't disagree that there are some longs that have no idea how risky tsla is or who make idiotic and dishonest arguments on the long side.
LOL You refuted your own point.
Tesla is only discouraging locals who've been abusing local charging. But guess what: it disproves your point: even some of the upper middle class and wealthier people will wait to charge if it's free, even if home charging takes essentially no time and it's inexpensive. Besides, the overwhelming majority of people WOULD wait for 20 minutes for a free charge. Ever see the lines at a gas stations when they run the free gas or $1 gas promos? People will wait over an hour.
BTW I'm not a treehugger, hipster, liberal or whatever label you want to try to put on EV fans yet I own a Volt and will never buy an ICE again.
And how long will it take to charge at the fastest of those 10,000 charging stations? Pick the very fastest. Would YOU buy a Bolt if the best you could do is spend 1 1-1/2 hours to get a 150 mile charge while on a road trip? And that doesn't even account for WHERE the charging stations are located-they might be at dealerships, not convenient highway locations.
What would you do?
Sorry but I have to laugh when the idea that there are paid bashers here is raised. I'm being completely serious and not sarcastic when I say that none of these guys are intelligent enough nor informed enough to influence anyone who's spent a little time doing their homework. Who would pay these dolts? Besides, many of us just put them on ignore anyway. I'm also completely serious when I say that it's the "arguments" that these guys make that have kept me long (but hedged) for the last 3 years. There are some agnostics, bears and shorts that make valid points that should be taken into consideration but I can't believe any of them are paid.
"Let's be fair. 40% = 40% no matter where your live or even if you have solar it still is 40%."
Not accurate. The point was related to how clean EVs are relative to ICEs. The fuel source for EVs is not in line with national averages; EVs on average derive far less power from coal and far more power from renewables than the national average. Besides offering CA as an example, look at WA. No coal, mostly renewables and far more EVs than the mostly coal using Kentuckys of this country.
FWIW I'm totally for using more energy if that's what it takes to produce oil from Canada's tar sands. I'd also pay more for it in order to support Canada while at the same time hurting Iran, Russia, isis, etc. Regulate it, set environmental standards but don't kill it.
What about the cost of pollution (not the co2 variety) from coal plants? If you're worried about the poor, would you disagree that they are the most likely "recipients" of pollution from coal plants? Heck, from ICEs too? Middle class and wealthier people don't live near coal plants, freeways or busy streets. Substituting nat gas for coal is a win for everyone.
BTW we're not diametrically opposed when it comes to renewables. I'm not for installing them at all costs (like here in CA) and am against subsidies for solar installed on homes because it's not cost effective and doesn't benefit all ratepayers and taxpayers, but mostly wealthier homeowners with larger homes. I do support some incentives for utility and other larger scale solar installations because it's far cheaper and all ratepayers benefit. However, as solar costs come down, this will all be a moot point and every year we get closer.
If you were referring to someone other than temagami as a basher, ignore the rest of this post otherwise...are you serious?? He is the most respected poster by both sides and is the most respectful poster to both sides. You don't have to agree with his opinions but calling him a basher only discredits you. It doesn't do much for longs either.