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Tesla Motors, Inc. (TSLA) Message Board

justthefactsmaam_ok 192 posts  |  Last Activity: May 22, 2015 10:15 AM Member since: Feb 2, 1999
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  • Google it. Yahoo keeps deleting my post with excerpts. And yes, they said Nebraska instead of Nevada for the location of the GF.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • justthefactsmaam_ok justthefactsmaam_ok Mar 5, 2015 1:07 AM Flag

    Seeing the launch must've been a cool sight, no? Unless it appeared as just a blip, I guess I'm surprised that any aircraft were even remotely in the area in case something went wrong.

    My opinion of the Cochrans, Cutlers, Yagmans and their ilk is more negatively extreme than anything posted here. I'll leave it at that.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to


    by ericap7104 Mar 4, 2015 7:48 PM
    justthefactsmaam_ok justthefactsmaam_ok Mar 5, 2015 12:36 AM Flag

    "...they are supposted to come out with this car on the 17 March 20015."

    Not exactly:

    "When exactly the Ibis will hit the market and for how much is yet unknown."

    "Aoxin is expected to announce details on price and availability on the upcoming International New Energy Vehicle Show in Jinan City, starting on March 17"

    Sentiment: Buy

  • justthefactsmaam_ok justthefactsmaam_ok Mar 5, 2015 12:25 AM Flag

    "Why don't you tell us if and when you think a capital raise is coming."

    Short answer: I don't.

    Longer answer: maybe if the stock is in the upper $200's unless you consider selling hedges associated with any notes that get converted.

    Tesla has said repeatedly that they might raise funds if market conditions are favorable. Their last raises occurred after the stock had been on a good run; the current price would break that practice. Moreover, unless there's some secret, capital intensive project going on that no one has even hinted at, why would Tesla raise cash now when they didn't do it 5 months ago at far, far higher prices AND Elon said he thought the stock was a bit high at the time?

    Sentiment: Buy

  • justthefactsmaam_ok justthefactsmaam_ok Mar 4, 2015 6:32 PM Flag


    You've uncovered the tell huh? So rather than doing this 5 months ago when the stock was 40% higher, you've read the tea leaves and deduced that anything that might indicate prospective sales is being used to manipulate the stock higher. Interesting. You'd think Tesla would have tweaked Q1 and 2015 guidance higher if that was the case.

    Neither one of us knows for sure when or if Tesla will seek to raise cash but you seem like Johnny Cochran trying to convince jurors of the caliber that OJ's jury consultant targeted and was able to get on the jury, excluding the race and gender criteria.

    BTW wrt the 2013 convertibles and Tesla having to come up with cash, part of that cash could come from selling the hedges purchased for these notes.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • justthefactsmaam_ok justthefactsmaam_ok Mar 4, 2015 6:15 PM Flag


    This jc guy is hilarious! He can't get basic figures right, twists things around and now I guess he wants to tell those who have been here for 2 years or longer what our cost basis is-according to him:

    "JTF appears to think that the cost base of longs is always $30. How refreshing?"

    Of course, I never said that but what's funny is how many of the shorts talk about how they shorted and it always seems to be close to the day's or week's top.

    He kind of reminds me of ballcoach and some of the trolls who have come and gone. I wouldn't be surprised if this is just an alias for a current or former troll. He is slightly different in one way: his posts aren't full of LOL's. Wasn't it iamagod who kept doing that even when he was continually wrong?

    Sentiment: Buy

  • justthefactsmaam_ok justthefactsmaam_ok Mar 3, 2015 2:07 PM Flag


    This post of yours is another classic and a candidate for ballcoach's greatest "hits".

    Re inventory: I've never said Tesla has zero inventory. I've posted about the loaner cars available for sale as well as a small number of immediate sale aka inventory cars at galleries. The difference is I'm putting that figure at 600 units give or take a few hundred and you're at something like 2000-4000. So far you have only speculation to back your view. We'll see. And I do intend to visit a store myself.

    I've never believed everything you post is a lie but rather much of it is distorted. Look no further than 2014 units sold. You claimed to be right despite being wrong even after several revisions. You were even off on your country estimates.

    "You've been 100% wrong 100% of the time about Tesla, the business."

    Now THIS is a classic! I've been expecting strong sales growth for the 2 1/2 years I've been posting here and so far I've been right. And you? Over the same period, you've been saying Tesla is failing, will fail, there's no demand, etc. etc. etc. Tesla is burning cash and raised more? Shocking! Sales chiefs have changed? Who cares? If these "prescient" insights make you feel better, fine. The 45% yoy increase in units which defied your forecast is far more important to me.

    YOU are calling ME smug? LOL! Seriously, that's funny!

    Sentiment: Buy

  • justthefactsmaam_ok justthefactsmaam_ok Mar 2, 2015 4:17 PM Flag

    Care to post anything to support what you've attributed to me? Anything?

    Sentiment: Buy

  • justthefactsmaam_ok justthefactsmaam_ok Mar 2, 2015 3:27 PM Flag

    I hope so. Still have a bunch of hedges that I'd like to cover/roll.

    Sticking with your theory about Tesla planning to sell 7 million cars in the U.S. in 2025?

    Sentiment: Buy

  • justthefactsmaam_ok justthefactsmaam_ok Mar 2, 2015 12:24 PM Flag

    Santelli is all for free markets and free speech-except when he disagrees. He censored the other guy, pretending they were out of time but he somehow managed to kill another 10-15 seconds after.

    What a disgrace.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Why Did My Post Get Deleted?

    by montanaskeptic Mar 2, 2015 9:49 AM
    justthefactsmaam_ok justthefactsmaam_ok Mar 2, 2015 11:34 AM Flag

    Sounds like you're referring to your comrades in the legal biz particularly the PI and class action thieves.

    "...the privileged elite who feel smug & righteous..."

    Yup, sounds like a good description of most lawyers.

    " a car that only the top 0.1% can afford..."

    And you're bad at math.

    Maybe you should spend less time on your computer. After all, out there in Montana it's coal powered and you've made it clear how much you hate coal power.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • justthefactsmaam_ok justthefactsmaam_ok Mar 2, 2015 1:34 AM Flag

    In trying to keep it simple, I left out that under SCE's non-TOU residential rate plans, charges are based on total monthly usage and are tiered so the more you use the more you pay per kwh. A dual meter setup, which is what some EV owners do, might be one way to get the lower rates for home "baseload" usage while the 2nd meter would be under the TOU plan and cover the rest of the monthly usage.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    From 10K: $397M finished goods inventory

    by dynamicviolence Feb 26, 2015 11:51 PM
    justthefactsmaam_ok justthefactsmaam_ok Mar 2, 2015 1:12 AM Flag

    You're probably right about MX's accounted for in inventory but I'm preparing a list of questions for IR and it'll be a good one to ask.

    There's no disagreement that there are inventory and loaner cars. I used 4 cars average at each of 150 galleries and Service Centers as a baseless WAG to arrive at 600. You're right that the big question is "how many"?

    I know we'll disagree about transparency but I've seen plenty of simple concepts that although repeatedly explained again and again continue to be misrepresented and distorted here and in other venues including the media. For that reason, I'm ok with Tesla buffering some info. Example: look at the huge disparity in monthly sales in Norway. The large increases and severe drops month over month are meaningless as far as the overall trend yet some still can't grasp, or are intentionally ignoring that fact that Tesla doesn't allocate supply to every geography at the some rate every month. Sales are neither rising nor falling at the rate that month over month sales changes imply.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • justthefactsmaam_ok justthefactsmaam_ok Mar 2, 2015 12:43 AM Flag


    There are many caveats and conditions but let's keep it simple for now. The max price differential you posted is $.20/kwh, the same as what I posted. In my SCE territory, you can sign up for a TOU rate so that all power used at a certain time is at the lowest rate. Again, I'm greatly simplifying but now assume each 1 kwh battery pack saves that differential each day. That's $73 (.20*365) per year. N0m0renancy posted info from an article suggesting a $330/kwh SolarCity battery system cost so payback in 4 1/2 years. Net $ benefits from the system will depend on usable capacity over time.

    I again acknowledge that there are numerous caveats that I'm leaving out to simplify including the unlikely 100% utilization of the battery's capacity, degradation, unfeasibility of this system for low usage customers, the risk of rate differentials declining, etc. I just wanted to give a very basic idea of how such a system might possibly work. Had the differential pricing effectively been a few pennies per kwh, we wouldn't even be discussing this nor would SCity or Tesla even be considering it.

    Where have I gone wrong?

    Sentiment: Buy

  • justthefactsmaam_ok justthefactsmaam_ok Mar 2, 2015 12:12 AM Flag

    Thanks for the reference to the CT article. I've been looking for a ballpark cost figure and the $330/kwh is not only in the ballpark but under my $350 estimate which was admittedly based on very scant actual data.

    Will continue this on temagami's new thread on this topic but want to note my interest in this has nothing to do with backup power for when there's a power outage other than it being a side benefit.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    From 10K: $397M finished goods inventory

    by dynamicviolence Feb 26, 2015 11:51 PM
    justthefactsmaam_ok justthefactsmaam_ok Mar 2, 2015 12:05 AM Flag

    Your calculations are flawed. You assume the 1400 cars not delivered in Dec and pushed into Jan are the only in transit cars and leave out the cars in transit for overseas delivery that won't be delivered in q1. I'm ballparking it 1700. Now we're at 1400+1700+600 (loaner and "inventory")=3700 in finished good inventory.

    Next, while not very significant, q4 only had 2 or maybe 3 weeks of D model deliveries so the q1 mix will have a higher COGS due to a much higher mix of D models so add maybe 6% to COGS.

    Beyond tweaking my figures for overseas transit and inventory cars, there is still a discrepancy between my estimates and inventory however there could be plausible explanations no one has considered. How are MS' traded in for D models accounted for? Is it possible there are 500-1000 of these used MS' in inventory and if so are they part of finished goods? It's been suggested that quite a few MX have been made for testing. Could there be a few hundred out there and if so wouldn't they be included in finished goods?

    I can't prove there isn't something nefarious going on but those who are casting aspersions need to adjust their presumptions first.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • justthefactsmaam_ok justthefactsmaam_ok Mar 1, 2015 8:49 PM Flag

    "I'm simply amazed you don't believe me."

    I'm simply amazed you think anyone not on the short side WOULD take what you say at face value.

    Let's clarify things. Forget the 5000 cars you originally said are in inventory, Iet's lower that for the moment. Are you saying that Tesla has roughly 4000 new cars in inventory for sale, cars that are not intended for a customer that has placed an order? If that is what you are saying, what other possibility is there other than you are claiming that Tesla is fraudulently misleading the public and investors?

    Sentiment: Buy

  • justthefactsmaam_ok justthefactsmaam_ok Mar 1, 2015 8:28 PM Flag

    I intend to.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • justthefactsmaam_ok justthefactsmaam_ok Mar 1, 2015 8:00 PM Flag


    I DID answer your question. It's just not the answer you wanted to hear.

    I reject your notion that Tesla has anything near 5000 inventory cars for sale in the U.S. or in the world for that matter and I've given my view on the difference between production and deliveries. Even an average of 6 cars in each gallery and service center only gets you too 900 cars and I think that figure is on the high side. I suspect some of the inventory that does exist could be from a surge of D buyers trading in used MS' but those aren't new and therefore don't apply to your argument.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • justthefactsmaam_ok justthefactsmaam_ok Mar 1, 2015 7:41 PM Flag


    A rebuttal to one of the few things that could undermine the CA rail scam, which we're both against? Actually, which I'm more against since I'm a CA taxpayer and will get stuck paying for it even beyond that of a federal taxpayer?

    We'll get an idea later this year on the viability of Tesla/SCity battery packs. If you have some calcs that show it can't work I'd be interested in seeing them, otherwise I'll leave it at this: in my SCE area there's a $.20/kwh price differential for storage to target.

    At least we aren't polar opposites re delays and inventory.

    Sentiment: Buy

247.73+2.11(+0.86%)May 22 4:00 PMEDT