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Tesla Motors, Inc. (TSLA) Message Board

justthefactsmaam_ok 165 posts  |  Last Activity: Mar 21, 2015 4:08 PM Member since: Feb 2, 1999
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  • Reply to

    Tesla and the "Halo Effect"

    by montanaskeptic Feb 2, 2015 6:59 PM
    justthefactsmaam_ok justthefactsmaam_ok Feb 2, 2015 7:31 PM Flag

    "(Never mind the coal that's burnt to charge a Tesla's battery, of course.)"

    Of course. What % of the power to recharge a Tesla is from coal in the U.S.?

    What % of Tesla buyers do so primarily for environmental reasons? How many buy it solely because they like the car?

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Was there news? Why the rocket up?

    by caperdude Feb 2, 2015 10:43 AM
    justthefactsmaam_ok justthefactsmaam_ok Feb 2, 2015 2:03 PM Flag

    Why didn't you include a little more in your first paragraph, posted below, which was included in the heading you copy and pasted? It may not move the needle but still...:

    "As a result of a favorable foreign currency exchange impact from foreign currency-denominated assets and liabilities, especially related to the Japanese yen, we recorded gains of $2.5 million on foreign exchange transactions in other income, net, for the three months ended September 30, 2014."

    If you're going to copy and paste the $2.4 million in other expense shouldn't the $2.5 million in other gains be copy and pasted as well?

    Sentiment: Buy

  • justthefactsmaam_ok justthefactsmaam_ok Jan 31, 2015 3:39 PM Flag

    "I don't want to troll, and welcome any disagreement."

    I appreciate that.

    First, a minor point as far as MX looks, the main point within the quote was not about the paint but this:

    "...added body panels to obscure the real "look"

    Next, I don't view the forecasts as shifting. There's been 1 revision since Feb and that was after the assembly line reconfig production shortfall. I think they'll miss the 33k figure but key for me is that the miss is due to lack of supply, not demand, and it's my opinion that Elon's comments reflect that.

    If BP triples production in 2016, again in 2017, again in 2018 and another 50% in 2019 they'll be just over the GF's auto portion of 2020 production. Sure it could happen but how many companies will place such huge bets without contracts in place? Let's say they do so anyway. Now we're at capacity for 1 million cars per year out of 80 million at current global sales, less if (in my view) there will be vehicles such as pickups, suvs, etc. that use larger battery packs.

    As for cash burn and losses, Tesla's cash burn is due to rapid expansion.

    "... we expect our annual production will increase by over 50% in 2014, again in 2015 and probably for several years to follow..."

    For the first 9 months of 2014:

    "Purchases of property and equipment, excluding capital leases ($601,224,000)"

    Can anyone give an example of a company in a capital intensive industry, growing anywhere near as fast as Tesla that is profitable or with positive cash flow?

    We most differ on future demand and sales. I'm a straight, registered Republican non-green EV fan. My enthusiasm is mostly due to how much better THE CAR is, with a small part based on pro-U.S., anti-Putin etc. views. Read what MS owners say, good and bad. Overwhelmingly they love the car and those 60,000+ owners, guys like me and other "zealots" tell everyone about Tesla and EVs. Barring something catastrophic, that's how we'll get to 500k sales.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • justthefactsmaam_ok justthefactsmaam_ok Jan 31, 2015 2:06 PM Flag

    Did you actually read the article or did just post it because it supports your negative view?

    "Boston Power has received funding from the Chinese government to expand a facility in Liyang fivefold by 2016, and materially expand another plant in Tianjin, as well. In the near term, it hopes to increase its production threefold this year alone, according to the Wall Street Journal."

    After all of that expansion "While Boston Power's 2015 production target of one gigawatt-hour a year worth of batteries is a far cry from Tesla's target of 35 gigawatt-hours a year..."

    Their 2015 production TARGET is 1 GWh/year. In 2014 Tesla alone needed around 2.5 GWh of batteries. At full capacity in 2020, the GF will only produce enough batteries to supply 500,000 cars/year, LESS than 1% of current global auto sales.

    Have you read any of Tesla's shareholder letters? seems like you get a lot of "info" from this MB, a venue where misinformation is rampant. I saw a comment about the 2014 estimate that was something like "35k, 33k, whatever it is now". It was lowered to 33k back in November because the Fremont plant was shut down for 2 weeks to modify the assembly line and restart ramp was slower than expected. Did you know that? If you did, and you know that Tesla only accounts for a car as sold when delivered and paid for then it's hard to see how Tesla could meet it's original 35k forecast when it made 2,000 cars less than planned. Que the evil music and claims of inventory cars being used to manipulate sales figures (this happens every quarter by the usual suspects).

    It's fine if your view about the MX being ugly is based on the recent video but you should know that "... it appears to be a "test mule" vehicle which has heavy camoflage body paint and added body panels to obscure the real "look" of the design. This is common practice amongst automakers..."

    We won't agree on the outlook for Tesla but surely you can do better than the trolls.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • justthefactsmaam_ok justthefactsmaam_ok Jan 29, 2015 1:33 AM Flag

    From the q3 shareholder letter:

    "Cash at quarter end, including cash equivalents, decreased $304 million to $2.4 billion. Operating cash outflows were $28 million, and impacted by using $35 million to fund our leasing program and a $60 million increase in receivables. During the quarter we invested $284 million in capital expenditures."

    From the q3 10q for the 9 months ending 9/30/14:

    Net cash provided by operating activities $29,065,000.
    Purchases of property and equipment, excluding capital leases ($601,224,000).

    We can spend a lot of time going through this and that from the financials and there are guys here that are far smarter than me when it comes to interpreting them. However, I think I've fairly covered the essence of the cash burn.

    Do you think anything from your post should be revised or restated?

    Sentiment: Buy

  • justthefactsmaam_ok justthefactsmaam_ok Jan 29, 2015 12:48 AM Flag

    Interesting. Minimum wait times are currently 2 months to nearly 7 depending on model but you think they should advertise. The GF, when fully operational, will roughly equal the capacity of all of today's world batery production yet will still only make enough batteries for about 500,000 cars per year. So you want to increase wait times while not having a source for enough batteries to keep up with substantial growth? Needless to say, we disagree.

    "Teslas are coal powered."

    "MS demand in the U.S. is declining."

    "The large drop in U.S. yoy sales in q1, q2 and 1h 2014 prove demand has taken a huge hit."

    If/when message board posters, bloggers and too many journalists/commentators get the simple things right (which they don't, even when data is easily obtained or after it's been explained over and over again) I think Tesla should release monthly delivery data. In the meantime, I support not releasing data in a way that permits the ignorant and dishonest to mislead.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Longer wait times for other countries. Norway ranges from late April to June. Not clear about other models but "D" model delivery times for Japan range from June to August. Even China is April-May. All of this and still no advertising.

    VIN 75xxx assigned today: "750XX estimated delivery late March USA/Missouri/St. Louis."

    I am assuming that Tesla's production rate has increased substantially over the 800/week rate before the Fremont shutdown. There are reports it's north of 1000/week but even assuming the 1000 rate, delivery times have not decreased. It's not a stretch to conclude these are indications that demand remains strong and that the presumed flat or declining demand arguments are still wrong at this time. To be fair, it's also possible that there's a shortage of drivetrains due to so many of them requiring replacement. I will be surprised and disappointed if this issue isn't addressed or questioned during the CC. Maybe Lovallo, the ML guy who's had a $75 price target for a couple of years, will ask what is a good question instead of the message board rumors he usually brings up. I know, I know, he's THE honest analyst, Jonas and the others are shills/shysters/scammers...

    Did I mention that Tesla is still not advertising?

    Sentiment: Buy

  • justthefactsmaam_ok justthefactsmaam_ok Jan 28, 2015 2:31 PM Flag

    As a long term bull, I'm not concerned with profits for the next few years, especially GAAP profits. Cash burn is a concern but with Tesla's rapid expansion to date and in the forseeable future along with building the GF, it would be impossible to not burn some, make that a lot of cash. I'd be interested if anyone can give an example of a company growing nearly as fast as Tesla and in a capital intensive business that is profitable or generating cash. And companies that idled then brought online already paid for/depreciated facilities don't count.

    I read your post on LDV sales but I think we disagree for different reasons. Looking at the number of EVs that can be produced based on battery capacity and with my view of the inherent superiority of EVs, I believe that the market will be limited only by the supply of batteries, not buyers, that those with the most batteries will do the best and no company currently is better positioned for this scenario than Tesla. In addition, I think the much-maligned grid storage segment will disappoint naysayers. One are with potential: residential TOU programs. In my SCE area, TOU rates differ by 20¢/kwh while standard residential rates differ by 16¢/kwh from the lowest usage tier to the highest. I see the potential for high usage customers to use battery storage to recharge overnight at the lowest rate then discharge the rest of the day, using zero grid power. Sure, the power companies could adjust rates to make this impractical but less peak demand coupled with much higher non-peak (read idled assets) would benefit them too.

    As long as Tesla continues to grow rapidly, I'll remain bullish but hedged as I have no illusions that tsla is anything but a high risk stock. If growth slows for any reason beyond supply issues or Elon or JB leave, I'll reassess.

    I hope you'll continue to post even if you're not active in the stock. Your intelligence, experience and non-FUD posts are sorely needed here.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • justthefactsmaam_ok justthefactsmaam_ok Jan 27, 2015 2:51 PM Flag

    While I know very little about Alevo, I found them in related articles after reading your post. I only mention them because it appears they not only have received $1 billion in funding but have also "purchased the 3.5 million square foot former Philip Morris cigarette manufacturing facility in Concord, North Carolina, for $68.5 million. The manufacturing facility, renamed Victory Industrial Park (VIP), joins established operations in Europe. Alevo plans to deploy and commission production lines at VIP commencing in 2015 which will produce 40 GridBanks per month by July 2015."

    Too early to tell if this is just vaporware but buying that property sure sounds better than the companies that just have a website and issue a PR...

    Sentiment: Buy

  • justthefactsmaam_ok justthefactsmaam_ok Jan 27, 2015 1:37 PM Flag

    Good post. Your second paragraph points out what not everyone, including some EV owners, understands. However, if I'm not mistaken, the MS warns drivers that regen braking is disabled under such conditions.

    Regen is among my favorite EV features. In many cases, it could more aptly be called "1 pedal driving". I always have my Volt in L to mimic what pure EVs have. My only complaint is that it can't be made more aggressive.

    Maybe you didn't want to reply but in case you just missed it, I replied to you on the Grid Storage thread:

    I took a quick look at Isentropic and a couple of other companies in related articles. It's not clear to me that these companies have a full scale and real-world operating product. However, one company that seems to be very serious and on their way is Alevo. Any opinion on them?

    Sentiment: Buy

  • justthefactsmaam_ok justthefactsmaam_ok Jan 27, 2015 12:49 AM Flag

    I'm not saying this applies to all of the shorts/skeptics, but for many ideology seems to have a big impact on their views in similar way that people will tolerate something they, a family or close friend does yet they are furious if someone they don't like does exactly the same thing. I'm sure we've all done it. I'll follow one poor analogy with another: observe the complete reversal in the view of longtime smokers after they quit. Many of them HATE when anyone smokes anywhere near them. However, I don't expect those that hate EVs will switch sides like some smokers have...

    I should add that being short tsla based on valuation etc. is absolutely not the same as hating EVs or Tesla. In the short term, tsla is unquestionably an expensive stock and I lump those that say otherwise in the same group as perma-shorts and haters. We just disagree with the long term value of the company and stock.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • justthefactsmaam_ok justthefactsmaam_ok Jan 27, 2015 12:29 AM Flag

    kapitanahoy

    Your posts are hilarious! I've been actually LOL while reading this thread and others.

    "Another one of them is that calling names or insulting Kapitan is not cool."

    "And you are not even cool. Just RETHARD."

    LOL!

    I admire your persistence, patience and generally good nature even when we disagree. Maybe you meant something different by saying not to "badmouth" longs but they shouldn't be excluded from scrutiny if they post bs. Anyway, thanks for the entertainment.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • justthefactsmaam_ok justthefactsmaam_ok Jan 26, 2015 11:34 PM Flag

    ballcoach

    You never change and I don't mean that in a good way. Of course you bring up the original 35k forecast without mentioning the plant shutdown and slow restart. At least part of the miss (yes I expect a miss of the revised 33k figure) is due to not having product to sell ie supply. Does Fremont generate supply or demand?

    Most investors will look past a sales miss if it's due to supply constraint, few of the unfulfilled orders are not cancelled and are pushed out to the following quarter and the forecast is for continuing order and sales growth.

    Even if Tesla didn't sell a single car overseas and despite a 2000+ car production deficit due to the Fremont situation, it STILL beat your various original estimates of 26-27,000 since reported sales to date are 21,800 and Insideevs says there were 6000 U.S. sales in q4. I can't find it but you later upped your estimate to I think 29-30,000 (ironically while analysts were lowering theirs) while continuing to say demand was weak. It won't take huge overseas sales for even that figure to be beaten but we'll see.

    If U.S. demand is so weak, dropping off a cliff, etc., how did Tesla possibly sell more cars yoy in the U.S. in Sept, Oct, (Nov was a tie) and Dec? While I'm at it, clearly U.S. Dec sales were abnormally high due to P85D deliveries but even if just over half of those cars were P85Ds the month would still have beaten Dec 2013 sales. Again I ask, how is that possible if U.S. demand is plummeting?

    "Tesla, operationally, is a failure."

    Hmm, the first auto company in many years to get this volume of sales, strong growth, $6 billion in sales to date despite no advertising, a car that's won numerous awards from reviewers besides those that are green yet you call them a failure.

    I can't wait to hear your 2015 projection. Since you keep telling us demand is falling, how about going with global deliveries of 36,000 or less? That's approx 10% above where 2014 will come in.

    How can you lose?

    Sentiment: Buy

  • justthefactsmaam_ok justthefactsmaam_ok Jan 26, 2015 3:11 PM Flag

    In 2012, Tesla did about $386 million in sales and had around 480,000 sf of leased facilities (principal) in the US. 2013 sales were nearly $2 billion while leased facilities in the U.S. didn't change. 2014 sales will come in near $3 billion and 2015 (IMO) will be closer to $7 billion. This leased facility space has grown far more slowly and is proportionally far less compared to sales than in previous years so no, I'm not concerned. Tesla expected to hire at least 500 more people in California in the 2nd half of 2014 alone and I don't think all of them could be expected to work at the Fremont plant. It doesn't concern me that the facilities are leased rather than purchased. I assume leasing saves cash up front but there could be other reasons.

    I have never said, nor can I see doing so in the near future, that tsla is anything but an expensive stock. For me, the growth rate and potential justify my long position although I did very well with this recent plunge by closing some hedges and other trades. I'm actually hoping for another plunge below $180.

    Sometimes people see things differently. I saw one of your posts where I think you called Elon arrogant after he made remarks about other battery technologies. I took it far differently, as a sign of frustration after so many bogus and questionable claims about breakthrough technologies. He's said more than a few times that if someone has a better battery, send Tesla a sample so they can test it. No one has and that's why he has said there is so much bs out there when it comes to battery claims. There was a great article about now GM got totally swindled by guys with great credentials and as I recall a battery developed from one of the advanced government lab's research. The battery was supposed to go into the Volt but after GM tested it themselves, the battery had nearly no capacity after only a few discharges. Been a while since I read the article so I might be off a little but you get the idea.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Geneva Motor Show

    by ltgmaster Jan 26, 2015 11:00 AM
    justthefactsmaam_ok justthefactsmaam_ok Jan 26, 2015 1:40 PM Flag

    I'll nitpick the U.S. figure per InsideEVs as -350 but more importantly do you think it's a fair and honest comparison to use the first 6-7 months of sales for 2014 over 2013?

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Pick up more property?

    "...Right before Christmas, Tesla leased a large industrial project in Fremont that hasn't even finished construction.
    The 300,000-square-foot facility at 47400 Kato Road is being developed by Westcore Properties..." "The facility includes 54 loading docks on two sides of the building — making it a "cross-dock" facility. The building has 32-foot-high ceilings and sits on not quite 16 acres."

    Even after they did this:

    "In December, Tesla bought the old United Auto Workers union hall at 45201 Fremont Blvd. It also leased about 90,000 square feet in Sunnyvale at 1250 Elko Drive."

    And even after they already did this:

    " This (the first item above) would be Tesla's largest local deal since buying the factory in 2010; last year, Tesla leased a 430,000-square-foot assembly plant in Lathrop."

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Do analysts read the news: grid storage

    by dynamicviolence Jan 23, 2015 11:44 AM
    justthefactsmaam_ok justthefactsmaam_ok Jan 26, 2015 2:04 AM Flag

    dynamic

    I took a quick look at Isentropic and a couple of other companies in related articles. It's not clear to me that these companies have a full scale and real-world operating product. However, one company that seems to be very serious and on their way is Alevo. Any opinion on them?

    Sentiment: Buy

  • justthefactsmaam_ok justthefactsmaam_ok Jan 26, 2015 1:53 AM Flag

    bulb

    It's not that keef or anyone posts negative things that are true. In his case, he posts only the negative while ignoring opposing but relevant posts while overwhelming this board with the sheer number of his posts. I read the other forums, see the critical posts but am able to get an overall semblance of how owners feel. On this board and especially of late, it appears decidedly and overwhelmingly negative with little balance and that's in part why I spend far less time here.

    I agree with your point about delays and problems with new technology. That Tesla's virtually nil experience in manufacturing, especially at greatly increasing volumes, would lead to any number of issues and a car that wasn't flawless should hardly have been a surprise. As I pointed out, the biggest area of scrutiny was the battery and it's turned out to be no issue at all while much smaller things (as LR pointed out) have been. However, I expect Tesla to sell more cars this year than cumulative MS sales through the end of 2014. Lessons learned from those first 60,000 cars lead me to expect that the 60,000+ cars Tesla will sell this year will be far improved over those produced over the last 2 1/2 years. In fact the number of issues has declined and build quality has greatly improved as noted from posts by owners on their 2nd or 3rd MS.

    Boeing is one of the most amazing manufacturers in the world. They've been doing it for a very long time. If even Boeing can have issues with the 787 (albeit a new design for them and a far more complex product than the MS), some are to expected from Tesla. None appear to me to be a fatal flaw.

    Your thoughts?

    Sentiment: Buy

  • justthefactsmaam_ok justthefactsmaam_ok Jan 26, 2015 1:23 AM Flag

    Your "temper" is pretty tame and your fuse is pretty long. Nonetheless, after taking a break from this thread and lurking for a few months, it's no coincidence that my first post in a while was to push back against BC when he was attacking you (not that you can't defend yourself). BTW around the time I stopped viewing this board regularly, your posts were among my favorites as you had some hilarious replies.

    As for montana, consider n0m0 who is a very smart guy, trashes Elon's integrity but he's not quite sure whether kbodie is dishonest. One would think SpaceX's success would give the skeptics great pause. Except for the loon who thinks SpaceX's videos are fake.

    Back to Tesla. I agree that the vast majority of Tesla owners love the company and the car. Even some of the ones that are very demanding, got fed up with delays and badmouthed the company and were ready to cancel had a nearly 180 reversal once they finally got their car. Again, most of the complaints and issues are not due to fatal flaws although the P85D range issue had the potential to be a big deal but it looks like once torque sleep is fully implemented it'll be a thing of the past. By the end of this year, I expect many of the bigger issues to be mostly or completely resolved, allowing plenty of time to concentrate on Gen 3. If that's the case, Tesla will have learned enough lessons to allow a rapid and successful Gen 3 launch and ramp.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • justthefactsmaam_ok justthefactsmaam_ok Jan 25, 2015 5:40 PM Flag

    You're not capable of doing that because you're too good a person. Keef's integrity is on par with kbodie's but as if that wasn't bad enough his profile pic for Seeking Alpha was Charles Manson until I called him out. I've put him on ignore because neither he nor his posts have value. I can read the same posts but in context and see opposing views in other venues, which I do.

    Consider this and let me know what you think: Some time back, LoneRanger said essentially that it's the little stuff that could kill Tesla. We've both been here a long time and can remember when it was proclaimed as imminent that Teslas would catch fire and explode. Then we had several car fires and a couple of home chargers burned up. Again it was proclaimed that Teslas were unsafe and were doomed. We were also told that the battery was easily bricked, that they would require replacement every 4 years, that they would cost $40,000 etc. etc. etc. Turns out NONE of these concerns and events which revolved around THE most important and make-or-break part of the MS (the battery) have been a problem and in fact simple reworks eliminated these issues. When was the last time any Tesla or any home charger has caught fire? To date, zero Teslas have spontaneously caught fire; all fires to date that I'm aware of involved a significant debris strike and/or high speed crash. Most of today's complaints are about the 12v battery, drive units, contactors, fit and finish, maybe alignment. I don't think ANY of these issues are a fatal flaw and are being addressed and corrected. Consider how many issues have been resolved and how much better the currently produced cars are than those that first rolled off the line only 2 1/2 years ago.

    My point: the MS has demonstrated no fatal flaws to date. The big worry was the big battery and that has yet to be an issue while the remaining items don't require an engineering breakthrough to resolve. Tesla has passed LR's test. What do you think?

    Sentiment: Buy

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