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Tesla Motors, Inc. Message Board

justthefactsmaam_ok 277 posts  |  Last Activity: Aug 1, 2015 12:57 AM Member since: Feb 2, 1999
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  • justthefactsmaam_ok justthefactsmaam_ok May 12, 2015 11:59 PM Flag

    LR

    Wouldn't you agree that one problem with your analysis is the assumption that there are 3385 cars in transit while not offsetting that with in transit cars from previous quarters that were sold during the next one? While I expected a fair amount of the overseas "pipeline" to have shrunk during q4, it wasn't zero so how does this figure into your calculation? Wouldn't the pipeline have to increased by 3385 over the previous quarter to make your case? This isn't what you're suggesting is it?

    BTW I'd estimate there are at least an average of 4 cars at each service center and gallery for test drives and loaners. A trip about a month ago to one such gallery showed 5 cars, 1 of each model for test drives and 1 sitting in the store itself. I'd also add there were no other Teslas to be seen, in other words no inventory small or large awaiting sale. In other words, ballpark this inventory at 600 units. I may have missed it but if not estimate CPO inventory at a value of 300 new cars so now we're at 900 non-pipeline cars for which there is a reasonable explanation. It's the rest that I'd like to have a better understanding of.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • justthefactsmaam_ok by justthefactsmaam_ok May 15, 2015 5:19 PM Flag

    You had several posts regarding inventory but there may be a flaw in your analysis. Or my analysis is flawed. Either way, I'd be interested in your thoughts. Below is what I posted. TIA

    "justthefactsmaam_ok • May 12, 2015 11:59 PM
    LR

    Wouldn't you agree that one problem with your analysis is the assumption that there are 3385 cars in transit while not offsetting that with in transit cars from previous quarters that were sold during the next one? While I expected a fair amount of the overseas "pipeline" to have shrunk during q4, it wasn't zero so how does this figure into your calculation? Wouldn't the pipeline have to increased by 3385 over the previous quarter to make your case? This isn't what you're suggesting is it?

    BTW I'd estimate there are at least an average of 4 cars at each service center and gallery for test drives and loaners. A trip about a month ago to one such gallery showed 5 cars, 1 of each model for test drives and 1 sitting in the store itself. I'd also add there were no other Teslas to be seen, in other words no inventory small or large awaiting sale. In other words, ballpark this inventory at 600 units. I may have missed it but if not estimate CPO inventory at a value of 300 new cars so now we're at 900 non-pipeline cars for which there is a reasonable explanation. It's the rest that I'd like to have a better understanding of."

    Sentiment: Buy

  • justthefactsmaam_ok by justthefactsmaam_ok May 15, 2015 5:42 PM Flag

    I sold some of mine for an 11% gain. Not bad for a couple months. The original buyers? With interest they're down a couple percent. I'm hoping for a non-event based pullback to repurchase them.

    Howard Marks' Oaktree Capital Management owns some of these convertible bonds, holding 9.37 million convertible bonds with a market value of $7.91 million although it is a very small position for the fund. Maybe he looks at these bonds as a cheap call option.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Battery Swapping is for Realz

    by temagami67 May 15, 2015 9:59 AM
    justthefactsmaam_ok justthefactsmaam_ok May 15, 2015 6:17 PM Flag

    n0m0renancy

    "...too ideologically blinded to recognize the Harris Ranch scam impedes rather than improves air quality."

    Really? How is that?

    I have been the beneficiary of what CARB and the AQMD have done. So have my friends and family. ZEV credits further these efforts that to date are incontrovertibly significant, visible and measurable. Tesla's cars also contribute to cleaner air and I mean cleaner as in metrics other than c02. I don't care if Tesla is stretching for ZEV credits (and I'm not saying they are) and neither do most Californians. If you're not a CA resident, find another target for your wrath besides making arguments against a program to benefit your bet against the company, a program that you don't pay for but everyone else in the state benefits from.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    what should tesla's new product be?

    by melypagnan May 14, 2015 9:30 AM
    justthefactsmaam_ok justthefactsmaam_ok May 15, 2015 6:52 PM Flag

    Google electric plane efficiency. Several interesting articles. Considering the cost of fuel, inspections, required maintenance and engine rebuilds for aviation, increasing battery density might be more important than cost so improvements should begin to open up this market. By this market I mean general aviation; we're a long way off from battery powered or hybrid commercial aviation. Initially small but with room to grow. While solar panels on the roof of a car make no sense, lightweight solar integrated into the wings and fuselage of planes might be cost effective. Look at what the Solar Impulse is achieving with today's technology.

    You might also search for Elon Musk - Electric Aircraft.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Lone_Ranger

    by justthefactsmaam_ok May 15, 2015 5:19 PM
    justthefactsmaam_ok justthefactsmaam_ok May 17, 2015 2:55 PM Flag

    lone_ranger

    Thanks for spending the time to put together your reply. My concerns were poorly expressed in my original post. They were basically the large increase and total amount of finished goods inventory and the increase in the finished goods/sales ratio. I haven't been able to get fully comfortable with the total of $493 million in finished goods by working backwards but the running total of 5127 of "non-revenue" cars is somewhere near the ballpark of my 5800 figure. More importantly, you put it into perspective and when I re-read the q1 shareholder letter I found something that I'd overlooked or forgotten:

    "In Q2, we expect to produce about 12,500 vehicles, representing a 12% sequential increase. We plan to deliver 10,000 to 11,000 vehicles in Q2..."

    and

    "...Both of these actions should lead to an increase of in-transit customer-configured finished
    goods inventory."

    It looks like the q2 forecast of a larger in-transit pipeline and longer transit times continues the trend from q1 with an implied q2 pipeline increase of 1500-2500 cars. I don't like seeing inventory increasing faster than sales but if overseas deliveries are growing faster than domestic it's inevitable. Maybe we'll even see the shrinking of domestic non-CPO inventory. I don't think it's large, it's just something I'd like to see.

    Thanks again.

    P.S. Ballcoach's post was ridiculous. It went astray to start with the notion that there can't be in-transit cars, even with overseas sales, then went further off into ridiculous territory with the claim that Tesla is only producing 3000 cars per month. Geez, Tesla has been SELLING more than 3000 cars per month for some time so by his own figures inventory should have shrunk. Cue the fraud conspiracy theorists, jmcvicker and company.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Lone_Ranger

    by justthefactsmaam_ok May 15, 2015 5:19 PM
    justthefactsmaam_ok justthefactsmaam_ok May 18, 2015 1:22 AM Flag

    ballcoach_30

    You're becoming increasingly unhinged. Sometimes it's actually funny, sometimes pathetic.

    YOU said Tesla is producing 3000 cars/month. I said they've been SELLING more than that for some time. Ignoring that this quarter will easily exceed that figure, Tesla has exceeded it for at least the last 6 months and in fact averaged 3300 sales/month. That's 10% more than what you said they produce. Now here's the beauty part: if Tesla has been SELLING more than 3000 cars per month AND inventory has been INCREASING during this time as even you have observed, PRODUCTION has to be HIGHER than 3300 month. Let's see if you can find a way to squirm out of this one.

    "What you truly don't understand is there really CAN'T be in-transit vehicles at the end of a quarter UNLESS Tesla contrives the numbers!"

    Interesting. I didn't realize that cars made on the last day of the month can be delivered to customers that aren't just within a couple of hundred miles of Fremont. Make that cars made on the last 2 days of the month. And cars made in the last 4 or 5 days? They'll make it to Georgia or Florida? I won't even bother with overseas orders.

    "Just like all the other times I called the people issues, stock offerings, and loss-filled quarterly reports BEFORE they happened. And you? Well, for starters, YOU designated California as not being part of the US."

    Um, I think the CA thing was someone else but feel free to correct me. Regardless, all of your "predictions"...have been worthless. Completely worthless. You've been negative for at least the last 1000% run; the stock is only ~15% off of it's all time high. Disagree? Prove me wrong by giving an example of who benefited and how they benefited.

    "...AND a serious #$%$-kicking."

    Yeah, that'll somehow reverse how wrong you've been, every error you've made and every distortion you've posted over the last 3 years. Whooping me + your useful posts is still far, far

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Tesla retail investors

    by bzawar3241 May 18, 2015 1:54 PM
    justthefactsmaam_ok justthefactsmaam_ok May 18, 2015 4:40 PM Flag

    vio_dynamicist, montana

    You guys keep posting the same garbage about the loans to Elon. Among them:

    "So he gets a loan at virtually no personal risk betting on a surge in share price."

    Really? Of course you neglect to note this:

    "We are not a party to these loans, which are full recourse against Mr. Musk and the Trust and are secured by pledges of a portion of the Tesla common stock currently owned by Mr. Musk and the Trust and other shares of capital stock of unrelated entities owned by Mr. Musk and the Trust."

    or this:

    "Interest on the loan accrues at market rates."

    and of course you also neglect to mention that Elon invested around $80 million of his money in the company.

    Did you know that the loans are full recourse?

    Elon has sold no shares and takes no salary. If Tesla fails and putting aside the billions his stock is currently worth, his $80 million investment will be worthless, the $100 million in stock and bonds he bought when the stock was ~ $90 (looks great now but you should have heard what guys like you were saying back then) will be worthless and he will have to repay the money he BORROWED from assets other than Tesla shares. Did I mention it's a full recourse loan?

    Your ideology based hatred is making you delusional. You should be saluting Elon for NOT taking any profits or salary while Tesla receives government incentives even if, especially if you are against these incentives. However, in my experience many of the same people who are furious about such things are more often than not frequently and aggressively seeking out and benefiting from similar government programs and loopholes, no matter how wealthy they are nor how far from the intent of the program their use of the funds is.

    Did I mention that the funds Elon got were in the form of LOANS? Did I mention that they are full recourse?

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Tesla retail investors

    by bzawar3241 May 18, 2015 1:54 PM
    justthefactsmaam_ok justthefactsmaam_ok May 18, 2015 6:03 PM Flag

    vio_dynamicist

    You're right, I don't know Elon and probably never will. I certainly might be misjudging him. It wouldn't be the first time I was wrong. As I posted several times, you used to be one of my favorite posters despite our disagreement about Tesla. That changed when you went off the deep end after mistakenly hearing or reading a projected growth rate figure. It wasn't that you got it wrong; it's the level you took it to AND your refusal to simply acknowledge the mistake. You didn't.

    I may also have been wrong about lumping you and montanaskeptic together when it comes to the ideology part but clearly montana's disdain for Tesla, EVs, etc. has a very large basis on the politics and views of those who like them-even if not everyone fits his stereotype. Like me.

    You raise a great point about what Tesla and Elon's success (or failure) mean to me. I've been thinking about posting on exactly this topic. Feel free to start it on a new thread otherwise I will another time. The topic: Who benefits or loses from Tesla's success or failure? I'm talking in addition to longs or shorts. The bigger picture.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Letter to musk!

    by zwei588 May 18, 2015 3:26 PM
    justthefactsmaam_ok justthefactsmaam_ok May 18, 2015 6:06 PM Flag

    SpaceX will not IPO anytime soon. Google Elon Spacex IPO. His interests are far too long term to be publicly traded and there is plenty of money interested in investing in SpaceX.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Tesla retail investors

    by bzawar3241 May 18, 2015 1:54 PM
    justthefactsmaam_ok justthefactsmaam_ok May 18, 2015 6:44 PM Flag

    futurecartsla

    I have to take a very strong exception and disagree with something you posted:

    "I guess by your logic..."

    There is no logic. This is not logical. It's ideology. ;-)

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Tesla retail investors

    by bzawar3241 May 18, 2015 1:54 PM
    justthefactsmaam_ok justthefactsmaam_ok May 18, 2015 9:14 PM Flag

    montanaskeptic

    "I will salute Elon Musk when he stops lobbying for government policies that force transfers of wealth from the middle class to the extremely wealthy..."

    I have some great news for you. The middle class is NOT transferring wealth to the extremely wealthy. Look up what % of federal taxes are paid by the top 1%, 5%, 10%, 25%...whatever you consider to be the extremely wealthy and post the figures. In addition, many MS owners are not extremely wealthy but have stretched to buy an MS for various reasons. BTW I'm not against capping incentives for those over a certain income even though most of them are just getting some of what they overpay back.

    If Elon was taking a salary or selling any shares, you would be decrying it in so many ways and not just questioning his motives but claiming something far more dishonest, greedy, etc. That you can still take exception to someone who has yet to profit from Tesla while putting up assets that are not tied Tesla to secure loans while using 1/3 of the amount loaned to buy even more into Tesla is ... I'm not sure what word to use. Then again, your many concerns about EVs and pollution (you know, the whole bogus coal thing) are odd considering you live in a state that IS mostly coal powered and you apparently drive a diesel.

    Odd.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    I ignored ballcoach a while ago,

    by melypagnan May 20, 2015 4:59 PM
    justthefactsmaam_ok justthefactsmaam_ok May 20, 2015 7:01 PM Flag

    So you're saying a car repurchased for sale as a CPO is INVENTORY but not Finished Goods. Ok. Tesla's inventory is broken down into Raw Materials, Work in Process, Finished Goods and Service Parts. Sooo isn't the above mentioned car included under the Finished Goods breakdown of Inventory? As stated in the financials and as posted by n0m0:

    "Finished goods inventory includes ... pre-owned Tesla vehicles."

    So if CPO cars are included in Finished Goods and Finished Goods are included in Inventory, what are you talking about? If a vehicle is sold, it comes out of inventory. If the owner of that car then wants to sell it back to Tesla or trade it in and Tesla buys the car, where else would it be put on the balance sheet until it's resold??

    Sentiment: Buy

  • justthefactsmaam_ok justthefactsmaam_ok May 21, 2015 3:49 PM Flag

    So when you drive that FCV the same long distance that EV drivers "can't depend on" where will you refuel it? Or do you just go one way until it dies? Most people will not have range problems with a Tesla with the current Supercharger network and destination chargers and other available EV charging stations (over 21,000 currently). All of these charging options are rapidly growing.

    Are you ok with gov't subsidies for FCVs and the subsidies to build the numerous refueling stations that will be required?

    "... and prepares for even more growth though 2017. The plan calls for 46 retail hydrogen fueling stations in six key California communities at a cost of about $180 million over four years; $60 million from industry and $120 million from government."

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Q1 ======== Record Deliveries in California

    by lone_ranger May 21, 2015 1:49 AM
    justthefactsmaam_ok justthefactsmaam_ok May 21, 2015 6:51 PM Flag

    Lone, did you know this is the same loon that claims the SpaceX rocket landing and attempted landing videos have been faked? He's demonstrably dishonest. He's been on ignore for some time. When I occasionally view a post, I find nothing's changed. He's just another kbodie.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    2 Greatest States in The Union

    by ahoykapitan May 21, 2015 6:45 PM
    justthefactsmaam_ok justthefactsmaam_ok May 21, 2015 7:07 PM Flag

    ahoykapitan

    I agree that it'll be Hawaii-CA is far too large. However, I take some exception to your "green" characterization. While it's not inaccurate, at this stage terms like "green" and "renewable" really obscure the economic benefits in Hawaii. With so much sunlight and high electricity prices, solar and probably batteries make economic sense right now since Hawaii is one of the few places that uses mostly oil, and expensive imported oil at that, as fuel for their power plants. Also and as you pointed out, solar will be far cleaner than oil generated electricity. They're trying to move to nat gas but that'll take a while and won't be all that cheap due to transport costs.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • justthefactsmaam_ok justthefactsmaam_ok May 22, 2015 9:57 AM Flag

    Even the trolls here know that every figure you threw out is laughably bogus.

    2 hours at a Supercharger LOL.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • justthefactsmaam_ok justthefactsmaam_ok May 22, 2015 10:15 AM Flag

    They went to a bigger battery? Really? How many kwh is it and what was it previously?

    Even the largest battery that's completely discharged that Supercharges with a 2nd Tesla that's completely discharged at one of the shared Supercharger stalls won't take 2 hours. Of course, everyone knows that most MS' don't arrive completely empty nor do they need or bother with a full charge.

    If you're going to make stuff up why not go for 5 hours and $50 to Supercharge?

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Your comments below about Teslas and coal in the U.S. is just the most recent example of your repeatedly lying about this simple and easily proven issue. Why lie if the facts are on your side? Why lie at all?

    Why don't you tell everyone:

    1. U.S. electricity generation by coal.
    2. EV power generated by coal.
    3. Your source for the answers to the q's above.

    Come to think of it, I might be offbase here. Perhaps YOUR definition of "mostly" is 10%, 20%, 30%.

    "In any case, I think it's bogus whenever longs think TSLA has any bearing on climate (changing or not). It's going to be a long time before electricity doesn't come mostly from coal in the US and China. So most of the Teslas on the road today will be making the climate worse until they are retired for scrap, if you think carbon emissions are the problem. Only a few Teslas are not coal burners. Some owners have panels big enough to charge their cars, or live near dams. But that's trivial."

    You don't have to like Tesla, EVs or believe in climate change to know that the comments above wrt U.S. power generation are false. For the record, I'm agnostic on human caused climate change.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • justthefactsmaam_ok justthefactsmaam_ok May 28, 2015 1:49 PM Flag

    bulbtrader

    You used, and have used "coal" and not fossil fuels plenty of times even after it was pointed out to you that it's not true. Now, you almost do the right thing and say you were sloppy but then proceed to do some bs math and average U.S. and China coal generation. You think that's accurate? Tesla has sold many, many more cars in Norway. Norway is 100% non-fossil fuel. Why wouldn't you use this country in your equation?

    "I don't have any way to find out if EVs use a different percentage of coal or fossil fuel fired electricity than the grids of China or the US."

    Really? Is it really a stretch to figure out that people that own EVs are more likely to have solar? Even if that is somehow too much of a leap, how about looking at the state with largest population of EVs by far-California? California, where over 25% of power generation is non-fossil fuel and ~90% is not from coal, where the small percentage of coal continues to drop and where solar+wind generation is growing far faster in absolute terms than all other electric power generation fuels.

    The coal and fossil fuel thing regarding EVs is usually a red herring brought up by those who couldn't care less about fossil fuels, c02 and only minimally about coal. If emissions are truly a big concern of yours, buy an EV and put enough solar on your roof to cover it's usage. The Volt isn't expensive and can get you anywhere you need to go. Drive an SUV? Yeah, that's someone who's really worried about c02...

    There are many facets of Tesla's story and EVs that are complicated. "Coal power" isn't one of them and if someone can't get this simple thing right how can they get the harder stuff right?

    Sentiment: Buy

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