If that was he way it works you would be right. But it doesn't. Their were quite a few who were looking for a loss this qtr as well as next year. Quite a few analysts are going to be revising their estimates. The forward estimate will now go from .14 to maybe .30. The stock price is probably fair at $4 but will probably swing a half dollar higher or so.
I bought at $25 and will buy more on weakness. Got a gtc order in at $22.25. Personally I think the market got ahead of itself. Gold could sell off to $1,000 or even lower. But long term it will appreciate against weakening heavily in debt currencies.
Looks to me like they raised $25m by selling warrants. Didn't see all the terms but they are not in a position to raise money on favorable terms. They need to take this slug and get to break even. No guarantee they can keep raising cash to fund operating losses.
It ends when they turn a profit or high risk financiers can no longer be found. AMSC is on its last leg. They MUST align expenses with sales in the next 3 quarters.
Depends on the amount. I'm of the opinion there will be a settlement that ends all civil and criminal litigation. The $100m number is probably close. With that scenario I would look for $3.5 to $4. The stock is probably worth the $2.50 a share now. The core business is still hemorrhaging but with an undertone of improvement. The next news on the lawsuit will be the jurisdiction question and that appears to be a slam dunk and that could add $.50 a share. I could really see the Chinese government strongly encouraging a settlement. Or else things could get extremely messy.
May be a good two part play. Buy now and sell on the jurisdiction news. If there is a pullback buy for a settlement play.
It's kind of a no-brainer that it will break $2 if there is no new funding in the next 4-6 months. Could break $2 if the funding is on unusually bad terms. Conversely, if they get some strong funding on good terms that would be a huge positive and a inside confirmation that positives are coming. I think we can read a lot into the next round of funding.
Yes. That's quite a bit of buying for the stock to still be this low. But money well spent imo. That's 23m shares that will not get the $3.05 dividend in 3 weeks.
Wouldn't read much into the after hours activity. When the miss came 2qtrs back it was down in the teens in the after mrkt but finished the regular session down 40.
A while back I would think $200m would be the lowest they would accept. But Sinovel is in trouble on many fronts as AMSC is painfully aware. At this point I think they would have to strongly consider walking away with almost anything. For example if they received a $30m settlement offer I could see them accepting it and couldn't fault them.
This is a decent move so far. We have seen a good 4 or 5 50-60 point moves up since breaking 500 before retracement sets back in. We started this move last Friday about 395, I'm looking for 445 before the selling resumes.
I think stakeholders are aware of this. Apparently there is not a way to manage expenses to match up with current revenue while they continue to "broaden the customer base". This management team talks a good game but more and more seem incompetent. KD needs to do something without delay.
They would have to start a Ch 11 with $10m cash to pay lawyers and court costs. It's probably time to look for a buyer for AMSC. Prob no takers at this price but a buck a share should work. With debt someone would have to pay about $100 million at $1. That's close to a year in revenue so might work.
Nothing wrong with dilution in exchange for working capital at current prices. They need to raise some cash soon or current and potential clients will get nervous. They really need to lower their break even point, can't keep raising cash. They need to figure out how to break even on $20 million of sales/qtr.
The non GAAP burn rate is about $11m a quarter. They have about $43m in cash/restricted cash. Can not pay bills with restricted cash. 3 quarters is a good guess maybe 4, either way they will not get to break even without some financing of some sort.
Not a bad quarter relatively speaking. The real problem is they can't turn a profit without doubling sales and sales are barely growing. Some progress on the expense side. Only enough cash to get through 3 quarters so that needs to be addressed.
Don't need or care about some mythical e-credibility. What I do know is that rev will be announced in a few hours to of dropped 30% yoy as this pos continues to weaken. I accept that my investment in amsc is looking like a pos but can't win em all. Good luck with the qtrly, we'll need it.
Wish I was a rat short on this pos. Definitely wouldn't worry about unlimited loss with this one. Let's see if they can report sales in the 22-24m range in the AM and show just a little life.
I doubt anyone who bought stock at $25 is happy when it goes to $2.50. He has been a great picker but not on this one. Doubt he cares much anymore, its a write off.
Hard to tell the way this baby is bouncing around. I'll stick with sales north of $20m which will give help some. They keep painting a story that sales are coming. The stock can't support this valuation without some at least modest sales gains. They need to deliver some sales or the the last guy here please get the lights.
The value play is clearly FDX. The reason its the value play is because you pay nearly double for each dollar of sales when you buy shares in UPS versus FDX, However UPS has an extremely valuable logistic infrastructure for package and LTLshipments. UPS sits right in the middle of the internet international package delivery industry and should and does command extra value.
I think the smart play is to own both with 60-40 dollar weight on UPS. Both companies are beyond dominate with no serious competition in the short term and probably even less serious future competition.
New drilling techniques and the advancement of LNG and battery hybrids translates into costs of fuel will be stable to lower leading to expanding margins and higher share prices for both.