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CBRE Clarion Global Real Estate Message Board

jwg1234556789 8 posts  |  Last Activity: Oct 31, 2014 12:01 PM Member since: Mar 16, 2006
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  • Reply to

    Post-approval Valuation

    by jwg1234556789 Oct 21, 2014 8:19 AM
    jwg1234556789 jwg1234556789 Oct 31, 2014 12:01 PM Flag

    If their revenues are only $350MM, I'd probably expect less than a $1B market cap. As the revenues climb, the market cap will climb at an increasing rate, which is purely the result of economies of scale. Either way, the stock is sorely underpriced at $1.70. I don't think an FDA denial is even plausible at this point. I put the probability of approval at .99.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Post-approval Valuation

    by jwg1234556789 Oct 21, 2014 8:19 AM
    jwg1234556789 jwg1234556789 Oct 29, 2014 8:32 PM Flag

    That's an excellent point. It did include those sales. My oversight...

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    I have change my mind on CLF

    by skittle12345 Oct 29, 2014 6:41 PM
    jwg1234556789 jwg1234556789 Oct 29, 2014 8:22 PM Flag

    I disagree. Goncalves does seem to have a stronger grasp, a more determined tone and certainly a sharper wit than Halverson ever displayed. This company make iron ore pellets. The world can't do without it and that market has a history of swings. Commodities are not for the faint of heart. I love this company at $10 per share. Also, you should have long since figured out that solar energy isn't the answer to any of our problems, SolarMan. Those of us that do exist in reality thoroughly understand that. It's common sense that got us there.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • jwg1234556789 by jwg1234556789 Oct 21, 2014 8:19 AM Flag

    Assuming this vaccine gets to market, what are your post-approval market cap valuations?

    Considering that Engerix-B sells well over $1B 9829 Euros) annually, I would place a $3B market cap estimate on DVAX.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • jwg1234556789 by jwg1234556789 Sep 13, 2014 7:25 AM Flag

    This is my favorite speculative stock in the market. Their science and outcomes to date lean heavily toward an ultimate win. I doubled down on a large position at $1.43

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Just bought 50 OCT $60 MRK CALLS....

    by gizman12 Sep 12, 2014 12:34 PM
    jwg1234556789 jwg1234556789 Sep 13, 2014 7:20 AM Flag

    You should have gone to Vegas. The odds would have been better.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    MRK makes new High

    by williamdavis960 Sep 5, 2014 2:07 PM
    jwg1234556789 jwg1234556789 Sep 7, 2014 1:28 AM Flag

    At the end of 2000, this P.O.S. stock was over $93 per share. By September 2004, it had fallen by half, to $45 per share. So it's down about 30% over the last 14 years and up about 30% if you were lucky enough to buy it at $45. Do you know how much better the market has done since either one of those dates? This company has been a horrible investment and it's going to get worse. Much worse.

    Oh, and by the way, the Medco spin-off occurred in August 2003. It amounted to about $2 per share. Don't blame that on MRK's horrible stock performance. This company is in big trouble going forward. Don't think one drug that's inferior to its competition has the ability to change that.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

  • Reply to

    MRK makes new High

    by williamdavis960 Sep 5, 2014 2:07 PM
    jwg1234556789 jwg1234556789 Sep 5, 2014 11:36 PM Flag

    New high????? It was MUCH higher than this ten years ago! This stock is a dog and a dying dog at that. Their pipeline is a ghost town and their drugs are dropping like flies. Even this new one isn't going to be alone for long---tons of competition on the way. BETTER competition on the way.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

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