the general assumption is fields production declines 5% a year. It does not appear Saudi production drops at all.....maybe their reserves 10x larger than stated
ConocoPhillips (COP) identified the Permian as one region where it will defer spending next year. The Permian is likely to be one of the main areas from which producers with better options flee, according to a Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. note to investors Dec. 8.
well it's two months later and STO is $16.50.......If this doesn't hold than $12 is next. Given the rapid decline rates of US shale wells, we could probably see 2M bbl/d come off the market in 6 months if all shale drilling stopped. The fracking shut down would be accelerated by drillers reluctance to extend credit to companies losing money.
in 3 years US oil imports down 1.3M bpd and exports of refined products up 700K bpd. That's a 2M barrel per day change in a 90M bpd market. When you consider that oil fields decline 5%/yr from pressure drop, 16M new bpd were needed over the last 3 years and shale only equals an addition of 3.5M bpd. See US EIA weekly petroleum balance sheet for data....So what is going on? China could be falling apart. Middle east oil producers want to starve ISIS of funds. Least likely is Russia, unless Russia waging economic war against US shale?
ECA was $51,86. It spun off CVE as a $23.75/share dividend. After the spin off ECA was worth $28.09 per share......CVE + ECA at close today worth $32.98......ECA -50% CVE -18%
even if the eps are only 12 cents this is looking interesting....the issue is can you trust them? I tried to find their manufacturing plant on Google earth and couldn't. Do you have the coordinates of the plant showing products in the yard?
Reminds me of Tyco and its former CEO Kozlowski. He eventually went to jail for stealing from the company.
that $4.2.B at today's market price.....this is more than excessive. It's robbery.