reality is that they run Phase 3 DC vax L for another year then look at the results.
maybe they beat the 6 mos criteria for success and the stock then soars.
maybe instead of 6 mos the results come back 4 months or even 5 months advantage.
BUT it still fails in that case. and no amount of adding patents matter because at some point,
the statistics won't change .
and then maybe they identify some subgroup of responders that need more testing or whatever.
the reality is maybe this n maybe that in future scenarios
however maybe it passes muster and soars but there are also scenarios of high risk and failure.
all in all I'm in some of this nwbo but have lower expectations for success than many here.
I am little doubtful that the amazing will happen here but assign a 50/50 shot just because of that
36 mo overall survival in early data -l and because maybe the PEI saw something to approve it for hospital exemption. but I don't expect anything much, I'm always disappointed in these issues and that's just the
way it seems to be.
people here posters can pie in the sky but only P3 results matter.
But yes, I would say IF "IF" in quotations DC vax L exceeds the P3 criteria, it will indeed soar, NWBO.
IF is a small word but has BIG implications.
anybody putting "the farm" on this IF is a darn fool at this juncture in my view.
but "some" to ride out the reward or risk LT may work. I donno4sure and NOBODY does, period.
That is reality.
waiting for some affect is like pumping at the wind. anything that takes this stock higher has to be real not some conjured up pump. the negativity or the reality of the matter is real so the only thing that will take it higher si real results and performance, not further speculation.
I assign the DC Vax L trial a 50/ 50 shot at success or failure because I have leaned not to get my hopes up in these endeavors. The statistics of the matter is what matters. If they someday come out and say the trial failed to meet stat sig results, the stock will crash in one minute. That's what Adam and the shorts are hoping for.
However, I am hoping that the 3 years mean in earlier results translates to 6 months or bettter success in the pfs and OS of P3. I give that a 50/ 50 no pump objective shot.
In closing, I do not see how anybody can logically spin negative the up to $32 Million deal . It will be used to launch an approved DC vax L in Germany for all GBM types. It was a good deal in the range of market value.
Anybody who spins that negative is a manipulating fool and anybody who falls for it is an idiot.
he knows the odds are against small biotech making good so he bashes just about all small cap bios and they often fail so he goes on and on. until he gets one wrong, then he dances around it and moves on to the next one to short.
to launch DC Vax L approved in Germany for all GBM types.
no reason for negativity on that.
anybody who pumps negativity on that is a short selling bum.
when the baker bro's buy they don't let go. look how they ran up bcrx.
they could run this stock a lot higher on positive data.
I used to respect his views even if I disagreed. But after his last hit piece where he intentionally misstated facts to try to drive the sp down for his short buddies. I donno, I kind of lost respect for his views and don't even open up the street articles.
also I think his boss Jim Cramer is wrong about Gilead because they paid too much for vrus and now think they can pass that on to the little people and ins co's at the pharmacy counter.
I don't really care what you want to call it. the deal is a very well defined and limited to the institutional investor paying up at some time in the future/
overall its a good deal and the financing question will be off the table for quite awhile now.I view this morning's trading as a minor blip.
it's quite simple proshorts, basher.
while the stock has recently risen from quite lower, am institutional investor seeks a buyin within the range of recent fair market value and no warrants is a very positive because low priced warrants create too many options for further dilutions.
that an institutional investor wants in like that is also a positive sign because they may have more research sources and info than the little people have, perhaps more insight into the basis for the German PEI approval.
I am no pumper. I recognize the risk of failure. If I was a pumper I would not tell you I think DC Vax has a 50/ 50 shot at success and the statistics could go either way.
That said, some for the success scenario could be an amazing thing. you may be short but It's funny that some big institution is willing to join the long side with a large buy in. funny eh?
ALL bioetechs in this situation do a financing when the stock rises.
the main thing is they made a reasonable deal for not that many shares at fair market sp ranges.
Institutions like the baker Bro's don't pay up for junk.
it's not that many shares.
A single institution paid a little lower than market in some, but has the right to pay a little higher for more.
but the best thing about the deal is NO warrants involved.
on the whole, it was not a bad deal for shareholders.
I look at things objectively even if I have some shares.
still think NWBO has a 50/ 50 shot at success but if they do make it, wow .
the moon is not far off.
but a 50/ 50 is also a 50% chance at failure and that would be real bad.
but this financing deal will not be viewed negatively in the long run.
I like your post and I am long some but regarding your time statement being on the long's side that assumes ultimate success which I assign about a 50/ 50 chance. I give it that because nobody really knows how the stats are going to work out in Phase 3. I doubt it will run up or down too far before asco cause its in a Mexican standoff phase making it range bound. the pumpers want it to run higher so they can dump it before the risky results phase and the dumpers , shorts just want it to come down they don't care how they do it.
F them .
I'm just telling you what I am picking up from other message boards. enough people seem to think PD1 is the end all and that anything else is not gonna make it. So with that I am assuming that the phenomena of what they do - buy the perceived leader and short the runner ups is why there are so many shorters in this stock,.
Feurerstein hinted at that in one of his articles. Hey, I am in some of this stock, but I am aware of the risks, its no slam dunk and I try to take the pulse of what the opponents are thinking and doing. they just don't believe and only final P3 results will tell the real story. Period.
a lot of people that believe in PD1 as the next generation don't believe in dendreonic approaches.
that's the rub and why I suspect there are so many shorts.
approved DC Vax L in broad GBM use without first and foremost polling results of cross section of patients representative of some form of efficacy, enough to base their decision upon. They surely took a sample of patients and their results to base a sound decision on. To do otherwise would be stoopid and I doubt the Germans are that stooopid.
if it wasn't him it would be some other representative for the short side.
they are also here to stay into the ultimate decision.
nothings gonna change until then.
back n forth blah blah blah.
it is a waiting game to see the DC Vax L Phase3 results to know if the German PEI was wise to approve use in the broad range of GBM treatment.
Longs in a collective sense are not backing down from the constant drone of badgering the endeavors by public naysayers such as feurerstein and a bevy of shorts.
The reason why the German FDA approved DC Vax L will either be clear or subject to criticism when the results come in.
perhaps they have seen enough people in treatment beat their statistical odds in a very hard form of cancer.
one way or another, longs are not backing down and willing to accept the risk into the decision point.
although some seem to want to pump it before it comes to trade it before the decision point comes. I doubt the short side will allow that without further challenge.
that means a range bound stock like a playground seesaw with Adam on one side and Linda on the other.
if you are not sure that it will fail as I am not sure it will succeed then why are you on here bashing the co and the hopers? I realize you're shorting it but why not just wait out the poor result that you think is coming led by your hero Adam?