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Eli Lilly and Company Message Board

k.bauer5124 10 posts  |  Last Activity: Jul 15, 2014 10:51 AM Member since: Apr 28, 2010
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  • k.bauer5124 by k.bauer5124 Jul 15, 2014 10:51 AM Flag

    Ok if I get this right RAI and LO have been in possible merger mode since March of this year. From what I can tell Lazard probably came back to RAI and said that LO was a roughly $50-$55 a share company (based on March 2014 share prices). So basically has all this hype about the merger set in an artificial premium? Or should the premium be based on LO stock in the $60-$65 dollar range? The problem is so-called "experts" were basing the premium on the hyped LO of $60 -$65 a share when they should have looked at the March 2014 share price as a starting point for the premium. Now the question becomes are major shareholders going to go for the $50-$55 dollar range as the premium or do they use the higher stock price as the starting point? I have a feeling this merger is still going to have a few more changes before a final decision is settled upon by all parties.

  • k.bauer5124 by k.bauer5124 Jul 9, 2014 12:39 PM Flag

    OK, I need responses. By now the RAI takeover info has hit all of the business news outlets yet it has not caused a problem with the RAI - LO merger talks one bit in terms of stock prices. In fact both are up today which is especially telling for LO if there was any truth to a total RAI takeover by British. What gives?

  • Reply to

    Looks like RAI buying LO is dead

    by bill750 Jul 9, 2014 9:07 AM
    k.bauer5124 k.bauer5124 Jul 9, 2014 9:59 AM Flag

    Not impossible, but highly unlikely it will pass "mustard" with US anti-trust legislation not to mention it would have to get approval from key congressional leaders in the tobacco producing states. No, IMO, this is just some "sabre rattling" from BTI to make sure RAI and LO make sure BTI's interests are taken care of in the merger.

  • Reply to

    Merger talk back on the table

    by notsoobviousman1 Jun 30, 2014 7:19 AM
    k.bauer5124 k.bauer5124 Jul 4, 2014 6:08 PM Flag

    I will leave fair valuation to more learned experts than me. However, based upon varying experts prices I have seen a pretty steady range of $68-$74 mentioned. My own gut instinct is a range of $72-$74. I think anything under $70 is suspect for various "valuation" legal experts to bring possible lawsuits against the merger because of "low valuation". Anything over $70 begins to stop any of those types of nuisance suits and $72-$74 certainly does. IMO

  • k.bauer5124 by k.bauer5124 Jul 1, 2014 1:24 PM Flag

    Why are investors paying a premium for Consolidated? Just look at the price to ratio for purchasing Enventis stock versus Consolidated. For example 1000 shares of Enventis at current price of $15.90 equals $15900 dollars. Then multiply the 1000 shares at the .7402 ratio. It equals 740.2 future shares of Consolidated for a cost basis of $21.49 a share versus the current Consolidated share price of $22.30. No brainer.

  • Reply to

    Hello New Family

    by stormfront2020 Jun 30, 2014 1:55 PM
    k.bauer5124 k.bauer5124 Jul 1, 2014 11:54 AM Flag

    You were missing $1.55. Not anymore after the merger is completed.

  • Reply to

    Merger talk back on the table

    by notsoobviousman1 Jun 30, 2014 7:19 AM
    k.bauer5124 k.bauer5124 Jun 30, 2014 10:27 AM Flag

    I am now almost certain the merger will occur. Why? Because I believe that when you get multi companies the size of these four each company stands to benefit. The more beneficial the stronger the pressure from both management and shareholders to get a deal completed. IMO.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • k.bauer5124 k.bauer5124 Jun 24, 2014 5:29 PM Flag

    WWTW2000,

    I agree. BH at WFC said the merger acquisition price would probably be in the low-mid seventies. Even taking this downgrade bs Morgan Stanley admits that they believe a merger price would be at around $68. I would be buying more if it hits $60. I can only hope that it goes down to $57 so I can back up the truck. And don't forget to collect that dividend while you wait for the merger announcementt, I know I am.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • To expound on my May 27th post.... volume is so bad that brokerage houses are implementing a 5% trading threshold based on the terrible volume. In other words, my particular broker has implemented security measures to make sure that any order to buy that has total shares greater than 5% of the daily volume must be cleared through the brokerage house before proceeding. Based on FMBH's daily volume I cannot place a buy order of more than 24 shares before I have to get special clearance. What a pain in the BEHIND!

  • k.bauer5124 by k.bauer5124 May 27, 2014 3:01 PM Flag

    How can this stock be listed on NASDAQ with such low trading volume? Days at a time with no shares traded. Wow! I place a bid and get no response. People just seem to hold this stock.

LLY
62.03+0.02(+0.03%)Aug 21 4:00 PMEDT

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