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Prana Biotechnology Limited Message Board

kadaicher1 957 posts  |  Last Activity: 21 minutes ago Member since: Jan 23, 2004
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  • Some could be shorts getting out before she blows.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • kadaicher1 kadaicher1 57 minutes ago Flag

    I would settle for any kind of J or even a flat line. It is just there are some things going on which could lead to a stronger effect further on like neuron regrowth. Just slowing cognition loss is approvable right at this point and could be a $10B drug.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Success in HD should validate the platform with drugs following for Alzheimer's, Parkinson's and several other orphan needs. Check their site.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • kadaicher1 kadaicher1 2 hours 7 minutes ago Flag

    I don't have much doubt they will see some more signals from the extension trial. Stands to reason after plaque clearance only started after 6 months of treatment. The extension trial will also have more time to build on the reduction of brain atrophy. Maybe PBT2s ability to trigger new neuron growth may be behind the positive data on atrophy. That being the case it could even go into a J curve further along.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Reach2 HD success or failure.

    by kadaicher1 Apr 26, 2015 9:28 AM
    kadaicher1 kadaicher1 2 hours 15 minutes ago Flag

    I don't think there is much doubt the reach2HD trial was a success. Now it looks like the Europeans like it as well. Target engagement is clearly there.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • kadaicher1 kadaicher1 2 hours 52 minutes ago Flag

    Yes, I would love to see what is going on in prodromals. Obviously half a dozen in a small sample cannot really tell a story on that, but the model shifts were almost instant, and some of the models were wild type, meaning no genetic modifications. You would think that would be a more reliable model. Maybe we will see something from the prodromals in this extension with the extra year treatment as you say. Here the accuracy of selecting genuine prodromals is critically important, because what the models did very clearly illustrate was that wild type mice and transgenic mice with no normal age related memory saw zero effect from PBT2. That is what was so convincing that PBT2 was actually addressing the process of aging.
    The Swedes used MRI in Euro which I guess included brain volumes to select for the AD trial. That now appears to be a superior biomarker for selection, than the pet scans of IMAGINE, in patients with full on AD maybe. I agree, for prodromals with almost no biomarker shift in one direction it would maybe almost be guesswork. Not everyone with plaques develops AD. It will be telling if the positive outliers in the placebo are prodromals.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Quarterly out

    by interestingtome 14 hours ago
    kadaicher1 kadaicher1 3 hours ago Flag

    Interesting they finished the quarter with more than they started with. Cash burn up a tad. That is interesting. What are they up to. Salaries are level, so no layoffs. R&D is up a tad when you would expect it would be tapering off. I wonder what they are up to. Could the slight R&D increase be explained by more animal tox tests?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • kadaicher1 kadaicher1 6 hours ago Flag

    That is exactly why if there is any hope that PBT2 could head off or delay onset, patients should be given the option, once the FDA is happy with safety. IF as it looks, Htt build up is the condition which could trigger the disease, then PBT2 could probably help. Model work indicates it can and Htt blood level changes in the human trial may also indicate PBT2 may be clearing Htt, or assisting in Htt clearance. Best guess right now is Htt clearance would provide a window of recovery of the neurons own clearance mechanisms.
    There are some similarities with AD, but also big differences, and early intervention with BPT2 so far looks more effective.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Quarterly report out on ASX

    by brewman228 12 hours ago
    kadaicher1 kadaicher1 7 hours ago Flag

    Hmmm, whats going on???? Note staff costs are constant and R&D maybe up a tad.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • kadaicher1 kadaicher1 7 hours ago Flag

    Oh hang on, you said AD was dead. The market has it priced like AD is dead. I think there is almost no downside here and lots of blue sky above.
    If expert opinion is that PBT2 is doing its job, but slowly, what then. Prana may see something to base a pivotal phase3 on, like a disease modifying atrophy change, along with continued plaque removal. What then.
    It may be a non event if it lives up to market expectations, which is just a good safety result to add the the HD PBT2 safety data.
    Remember Prana have discounted that placebo and as Tanzi said on the CC PBT2 did stat sig reduce plaque and reduce brain atrophy. They were able to demonstrate cognition in the larger Euro trial and Reach2HD trial. Any other signals and Prana could be heading to a phase3 with sufficient power to prove cognition as well.
    I will not be selling on those results, so don't care if they take till October.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • kadaicher1 kadaicher1 7 hours ago Flag

    Sure it is worry all right. Remember one of/ or the first study to identify that was when Bengt Winblad replicated Prusiner's prion experiment by injecting Alzheimer's brain material into the stomach cavities of mice, and they all got Alzheimer's. I don't think there has been much doubt these prion like proteins can spread. As you say there is also no doubt this is happening in HD and Parkinson's as well since grafts of healthy neurons were found to have Htt. There has been more work done with Parkinson's on this and not only do the proteins appear, they make the neuron sick, just like it did in that Winblad's AD mouse model, only he injected the prions. A prion cascade appears to be self driving once triggered, so where is the iRNA drug going to fit in here.
    Here it is worth noting that when everyone has gone to earlier stage and even prodromal to chase effect, including Prana, both PBT2 and PBT1 had better results in the more advanced patients in AD. In one of his lectures I saw Tanzi actually said the secretase inhibitors being developed in his lab may be right for treating early stage AD and PBT2 would be used for later stages. Why? Just to make it more difficult to understand PBT2 demonstrated more effect in early stage HD than late stage.
    MITs Whitehead institute may have already answered that.
    [Effects of 8-OHQs on Neurotoxic Protein Localization.-We next examined the effects of 8-OHQs on the aggregation, localization and accumulation on the TP-43, a-syn and Htt-72Q. The aggregation and misfolding of each protein is relevant to it's toxicity.]
    [HQ-415 and CQ, but not HQ-161 also strongly reversed the a-syn foci accumulation associated with toxicity, resulting in nearly exclusive membrane localization.]
    [Thus O-8HQ - dependent changes in protein localization largely correlated with the rescue of cell growth]
    And just maybe that correlates with the brain volume gains

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    GY & LC Dumb and Dumber

    by kadaicher1 Mar 15, 2015 11:27 AM
    kadaicher1 kadaicher1 13 hours ago Flag

    Thanks MD. What the scientists don't know yet could probably fill a slightly smaller stadium:-)
    You are correct. The best way to handle the trolls is not to feed them.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • kadaicher1 kadaicher1 20 hours ago Flag

    Behave yourself Copper, that was back in 2010 they identified AB as an active AMP and why it could confidently be predicted aggressive AB removal drugs would not be very good. He has also been working on ways to dial down secretase inhibitors fairly recently. He has even looked at effects of meditation. All that going on, but Genes has been his speciality since he served on the team which discovered the Huntington's gene location and won Gusella the Nobel.
    [Tanzi has investigated the genetic causes of Alzheimer’s disease, and co-discovered all three genes that lead to the early-onset familial version of the condition. He currently spearheads the Alzheimer’s Genome Project, where his efforts were recognized as a “Top Ten Medical Breakthrough” by Time magazine.

    Dr. Tanzi is also co-author of Decoding Darkness: The Search for the Genetic Causes of Alzheimer’s Disease, and Super Brain, with Deepak Chopra. He has received several top accolades for his work, including the two highest awards for Alzheimer’s disease research: The Metropolitan Life Foundation Award and The Potamkin Prize. Additionally, he is Chairman of the Cure Alzheimer’s Fund Research Consortium and serves over 40 editorial and scientific advisory boards.]
    And he is a Prana co founder, shareholder and scientific advisor.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    When are prodromals not prodromals. ITM

    by kadaicher1 Apr 26, 2015 2:51 PM
    kadaicher1 kadaicher1 21 hours ago Flag

    The strong improvers in the placebo AB biomarker is what threw me. Major cause of course is sample size, which relates to no money as they scraped through the GFC which was just starting to bite as the Euro trial completed.
    Follow up extension data will be interesting to see on those outliers.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • kadaicher1 kadaicher1 21 hours ago Flag

    I wish you could post stuff like that GY. Did you read it.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • kadaicher1 kadaicher1 21 hours ago Flag

    Possibly. Of course AB is part of the brains innate immune system and excitotoxicity is one type of inflamation common to AD and HD.
    [But now researchers at Harvard suggest that the protein has a real and unexpected function — it may be part of the brain’s normal defenses against invading bacteria and other microbes.

    Other Alzheimer’s researchers say the findings, reported in the current issue of the journal PLoS One, are intriguing, though it is not clear whether they will lead to new ways of preventing or treating the disease.

    The new hypothesis got its start late one Friday evening in the summer of 2007 in a laboratory at Harvard Medical School. The lead researcher, Rudolph E. Tanzi, a neurology professor who is also director of the genetics and aging unit at Massachusetts General Hospital, said he had been looking at a list of genes that seemed to be associated with Alzheimer’s disease.][That evening, after the lab’s usual end-of-the-week beer hour, Dr. Tanzi wandered into the office of a junior faculty member, Robert D. Moir, and mentioned what he had seen. As Dr. Tanzi recalled, Dr. Moir turned to him and said, “Yeah, well, look at this.”

    He handed Dr. Tanzi a spreadsheet. It was a comparison of A-beta and a well-known protein of the innate immune system, LL-37. The likenesses were uncanny.]
    [The scientists could hardly wait to see if A-beta, like LL-37, killed microbes. They mixed A-beta with microbes that LL-37 is known to kill — listeria, staphylococcus, pseudomonas. It killed 8 out of 12.

    “We did the assays exactly as they have been done for years,” Dr. Tanzi said. “And A-beta was as potent or, in some cases, more potent than LL-37.”]
    I doubt they will get the answer tweaking anything. I do think they have a real chance restoring metal homeostasis and helping the brain to self repair as designed.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Nothing North of $1.16 Nerds

    by lorde_chatterly Apr 8, 2015 2:10 PM
    kadaicher1 kadaicher1 21 hours ago Flag

    I would like to see the short position grow a little more first. I an not sure if you have been on the right side of a genuine short squeeze, but it is a fantastic feeling. That first time when the street was caught off guard by the advisory committee for provenge. At first it looked like they were voting against it. The fix was obviously in. The street was loaded short, and I was just about down a couple of hundred grand. Then it turned when the docs outsmarted the FDA fix and the street went berzerk. They were churning more stock than was on issue. That wasa fantastic week. You do not want to be on the wrong side of anything like that. Sure Pran took a huge hit of late, but there have always been backup drugs moving through. You have the choice to sell the trading stocks and keep the core, or sell the lot(I wish)That is not the case with shorting. You can lose the lot with no chance of recovery and no options to recover..

    Now here you are advising new investors to short this at its historically lowest range, with plenty of options, some blockbuster markets, to advance, and enough cash to get well started.

    Very poor advice. I think you are buying.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Realistic possibility of an 80 bagger here

    by kadaicher1 Feb 17, 2015 4:12 PM
    kadaicher1 kadaicher1 22 hours ago Flag

    I don't think he or they are nervous RKF. I think it will hit them like a bolt out of the blue. It is just a shame for anyone listening to LC to short at this level. They will get badly burned. A nother day in a fools paradise shorting a stock known for sudden rises, with more cash on hand than at any time over the last decade, and they survived the GFC on next to nothing and came out of it running two clinical trials. From this fairly strong cash position it is anybodies guess what is going to come out of left field.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Hurry up and wait

    by copper725 Apr 27, 2015 9:16 AM
    kadaicher1 kadaicher1 Apr 27, 2015 11:06 AM Flag

    Well copper I can't speak for other investors, but I intend to wait patiently for the extension results, the HD trial start, the emergence of PBT434 into the clinic, an anything else they are working on. I am hoping Prana does the hurrying.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • kadaicher1 kadaicher1 Apr 27, 2015 10:58 AM Flag

    Most I have read identifies cognition and mood/behavior among the first signs of HD, and now they have biomarkers right out to years before onset. It they can offer a simple pill that can perhaps get in long before onset assist protein clearance as PBT2 does, a lot more would probably consent to testing to access the drug, and that would be good for patients and HD research. To be honest, right now, with no treatments, I may not want to be tested if it was me, but I can't begin to put myself into the shoes of that courageous group.
    Now we know there is a prion cascade trigger somewhere it is very important of treat early if a disease modifying drug is available.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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