BARDA did not even exist at the time of the breach of faith. It came into existence that Dec. of 2006, and it did not even issue its Strategic Plan until Oct. of 2011. That plan articulated the principles, goals, and strategies it would then use to develop medical countermeasures. So we are talking about an award relying on earnings that would come from a govt. body that did not exist, a body that would be guided by principles that did not exist. Anyone who says that the award was NOT speculative is talking through their hat. Period.
Alpha, pharma deals and legal awards are two very different animals. One can be based on hopes and suppositions, the other (in the case of expectation damages) is supposed to be based on concrete sureties at the time of the breach.