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American Capital Agency Corp. Message Board

kansaskeith 5 posts  |  Last Activity: Aug 5, 2015 11:15 AM Member since: Jul 16, 2008
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  • Reply to

    June 2015 BV estimate??

    by wahoo99421 Jul 30, 2015 1:19 PM
    kansaskeith kansaskeith Jul 31, 2015 12:38 AM Flag


  • Dang, I worried that my guess of $13.80 at midnight was too high :)

  • Reply to

    June 2015 BV estimate??

    by wahoo99421 Jul 30, 2015 1:19 PM
    kansaskeith kansaskeith Jul 31, 2015 12:55 PM Flag

    Late last night I saw estimates here that WMC would have June 30 book value as high as 14.25 to as low as 13.25 or even lower. So I decided to use AGNC as a guide, and do some math.

    Both AGNC and WMC had in June released estimated book values as of May 31, and AGNC had already released its June number a couple days ago. We all knew that June was tough on MREIT book values, so I took the AGNC May estimated BV, subtracted out the amount of the dividend they declared that day, and then figured the percentage decline that occurred for AGNC BV from the end of May to the end of June. I then got the estimated May WMC BV, and subtracted out the amount of the quarterly WMC dividend, and applied AGNC's percentage decline to that WMC figure. (I realize WMC's and AGNC's investments are not identical, but I was curious how well this would come out.) Well, my math predicted the BV announced by WMC this morning would be $13.80, and it ended up at $13.89. Not far off, and it also told me that by that score, WMC had slightly better performance in June than did its four-letter colleague :)

  • Reply to

    Time to CLEAN HOUSE

    by man_with_lantern Jul 31, 2015 11:33 AM
    kansaskeith kansaskeith Jul 31, 2015 3:03 PM Flag

    OMG! The only remotely possible screwup anybody could be referring to would be failure to telegraph the fact that book value would be down from the end of May, when they last reported it, til the end of June, so the market bid down the share price in a hurry this morning. But then again anybody following the market knew exactly what was going to happen to book value in June. It didn't seem to result in a public paddling of the share price when, for example, AGNC went through that a couple days ago. In short, WMC managers did NOT screw up in coming through Q2 like they did, and there's no way I am going to vote my proxy as if they did.

  • Reply to

    RSO down 14% this morning

    by nickspinner Aug 5, 2015 10:23 AM
    kansaskeith kansaskeith Aug 5, 2015 11:15 AM Flag

    Which means you have bailed and we won't be seeing you again for a while, correct?

19.36-0.19(-0.97%)Aug 28 4:00 PMEDT