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Advanced Medical Isotope Corporation Message Board

kayak_wench 64 posts  |  Last Activity: Apr 8, 2015 6:46 PM Member since: Oct 31, 2009
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  • Reply to

    April Letter to SH

    by jbal31 Apr 8, 2015 4:00 PM
    kayak_wench kayak_wench Apr 8, 2015 6:46 PM Flag

    I am pleased with the communication, but still wanting to see the $$$, as they have chronically been wrong in estimating profits. However, the CEO never put out a letter to shareholders stating revenue was near like this time. However, they refer to two new patents, which have not been approved. They are two new patents under review. Whether they get approved is a complete unknown now. They also have non-final rejection relating to load assist and a an abandoned patent on brake technology. This stretch of relating is a bit concerning. Although if these patents do get approved, the application does carry weight against competition now.
    Also anyone else notice UPT owner gave them $250,000 in cash earlier in the year... so he must be a believer and should know a lot more about what is possible in terms of revenue for mobile generation than we do.

  • Reply to

    A fair and balanced post by a long

    by no2koolaid69 Apr 2, 2015 9:13 AM
    kayak_wench kayak_wench Apr 2, 2015 11:17 AM Flag

    Nasarat doesn't agree with you that they must have a partner. "In sales and marketing, we are working with a couple of companies that are very serious about partnering, but we are also looking into the potential of taking the product to the market ourselves." That is almost exactly what he said about the possibility of partnering in the development.
    I am not saying that is what I want to see, but he is considering that option. If he feels once he gets a approval from the FDA that companies will serious start negotiating for a buyout he might not want to get the deal complicated by involving someone else. I have mentally prepared myself for no news on that front for a good while, and possible Elite doing it initially with the idea that they will either get bought out quickly, or if not, they can partner a few months after they have started handling sales. It might be more cost effective to have lower sales because of an inexperienced marketing for a short while then a smaller piece of the pie because it is being shared with more people.

  • From the annual report "To date, there have been no shares sold to Lincoln Park due to the litigation with Spirit Bear. We are in discussions with Lincoln Park concerning its ability to perform under the agreement, based on the litigation with Spirit Bear."
    They need $6 million for this coming year. So my guess is that they haven't had the capital to bring their products to market. It doesn't sound like they were in the driver's seat on the SB settlement. They need the settlement to go through so they can access the LPC money. But if it is settled there will be some major dilution at that point.
    Revenues pushed back to second half of 2015 (the always moving target). My guess is they haven't had the money to finish the manufacturing needed to bring a MG product to market (because I could see no sign or reference to the live demonstrations they talked about). There was also zero reference to transformers in the report. No mention of the sale announced in late Dec with the university electric vehicle project, must not of resulted in actual money coming through the door (at least not by the FY ended Dec 31).
    For the settlement to proceed they had to come up with 70% of 4million so they found some cash somewhere this quarter. Its going to be a bumpy ride until / if they start selling something.

  • Reply to

    what...

    by automaddock Mar 20, 2015 9:58 AM
    kayak_wench kayak_wench Mar 24, 2015 4:01 PM Flag

    I should mention the agreement 'finalizes' the end of April. Until then it looks like there room for one of them to bail.

  • Reply to

    what...

    by automaddock Mar 20, 2015 9:58 AM
    kayak_wench kayak_wench Mar 24, 2015 4:00 PM Flag

    I got a 13D from my brokerage that laid out the agreement. To say it is creative is an understatement. Alls shares were sold for a total of ~4million at ~50cents a share. From there there are 3 series of warrants and penalty warrants. All of those will be offered to SB from 0.35 to 0.50. The penalty warrants (~ 1million of them) expire dec 2015, all other warrants (6 million) expire jan 2017. There are restrictions on the number of shares they can sell per day and the total in a week. The penalty warrants can be sold at market price. All the rest must be offered to OLP Holdings, Inc who has an option to buy them at a max price that is a function of how long before the 2017 they wait (the longer they wait the higher the price OLP Holdings, Inc will pay). The prices OLP Holdings, Inc has to be SB range between $1.0 and $1.6.
    The take away I get from this is that between now and the end of year SB will be diluting the stock by 1,000,000 more shares. Its not great, but I think once they start bringing in revenue the stock can absorb this. The also can't do it very quickly (I think max number per day is 20,000).

  • Reply to

    locked and loaded boys!

    by rfwelsh Mar 20, 2015 1:06 PM
    kayak_wench kayak_wench Mar 22, 2015 12:38 PM Flag

    No you couldn't of made it any clearer, but I appreciate you repeatedly explaining it several different ways until it finally got through my dip #$%$ skull.

  • Reply to

    locked and loaded boys!

    by rfwelsh Mar 20, 2015 1:06 PM
    kayak_wench kayak_wench Mar 21, 2015 8:47 PM Flag

    The CEO said "Q3 2015", and he did not clarify whether it was fiscal or calendar, but typically that particular phrasing is in reference to fiscal year. We are still waiting for the final report on a BE that was started in late Sept early Oct. Do you really think it is easier to process Phase III trial results than BE data? Can you reference the document that states that the "Q3 2015" reference is calendar year. I do think there is a chance that Naz is not under estimating the time-line this time though and that we could see it in Oct or early Nov.

  • Reply to

    locked and loaded boys!

    by rfwelsh Mar 20, 2015 1:06 PM
    kayak_wench kayak_wench Mar 21, 2015 6:12 PM Flag

    No one ever said that there would be phase III results PR'd in 2 months. This is how you set yourself up for claiming someone lied to you later and embarrassing yourself with an emotional meltdown over expectations you have created in your own mind.
    The "dosing will take approximately eight weeks to complete" and Elite anticipates "filing the ELI-200 NDA in Q3". Q3 is Oct to Dec of this year. The dosing completed is probably at best half the amount of work needed to complete the Phase III. Scientific "raw" data has be be processed, evaluated, formal reports written, etc. That is why there is about a six month delay between the completion of the dosing and the time they expect submit the NDA. Naz may or may not PR intermediary results of the Phase III, but I doubt he will have those in two months, I think it will take at least a month or two more to come up with preliminary results.

  • Reply to

    truck show?

    by automaddock Mar 9, 2015 8:32 PM
    kayak_wench kayak_wench Mar 10, 2015 10:24 AM Flag

    I was hoping to see video or at least a picture of a truck on the ultimate power truck's website. Unfortunately the only pictures were of advertising boards covered in words. Either they are idiots when it comes to marketing or they are intentionally not letting see their technology. I can't imagine why they would keep it under wraps so I am leaning toward the conclusion that they are idiots. I did find one picture of one of their trucks in a newsletter for electric vehicles, but it didn't show much detail. We'll have to wait until mid-May to see if they made any sales. I'm expecting their yearly info to come out the first week of April. It should at least have the revenue of the first mobile generation sale. I repeat this every time comment about this company, but it probably can't be said often enough, these guys do not communicate with share holders at all!

  • If Spirit Bear owned 23% of the company doesn't the recent agreement equate to the company buying back 23% of their own stock? BTW, where did they get the money to pay off SB. I think it must mean we are close to hearing positive news on a motor generator license agreement. Or maybe after almost a year and a half something about progress with the submersible pumps.

  • Reply to

    Disclosure

    by rfwelsh Feb 20, 2015 2:25 PM
    kayak_wench kayak_wench Feb 21, 2015 12:15 AM Flag

    I disagree, Elite can't read the minds of the FDA, they had to wait and see what they would require. While I say that people shouldn't be surprised the extra test was required, I also believe they shouldn't of been surprised if it wasn't required. It could of gone either way. It would of been a disaster if the CEO had not planned for the contingency, but he did. He doesn't have to sell a bunch of shares to pay for this, he planned for this possibility and had the money available to cover it. He has told us for months it was a possibility. But he couldn't know until he knew. That was why I didn't sell before this because I felt it could easily go either way. But what matters is the positive outcome I believe is possible is still as likely now as it was before we learned this.

  • Reply to

    Disclosure

    by rfwelsh Feb 20, 2015 2:25 PM
    kayak_wench kayak_wench Feb 20, 2015 11:15 PM Flag

    I don't think the FDA is looking to give anyone the advantage. I think the efficacy trial should not of been a surprise given the number of other companies bringing ADTs to market that had to do one. The government covers their bum. I think the reason they didn't require one for Zohydro is because that drug is unlikely to make into the mainstream painkiller market. It is for " long-term opioid treatment and for which alternative treatment options are inadequate. "Zolydro is not a drug you will get after a root canal, a broken arm, a thrown out back, or even a major surgery. From their website "The total quantity of Zohydro™ ER that could be available is less than 0.3 percent of the total amount of opioids that the DEA has allocated for 2014."
    It isn't a mainstream drug. But Elite's drug can be one that is prescribed for the everyday events for which we get prescribed pain pills (and by the way too many pills......seriously I have never needed more than 1/10th of the number of pain pills I have been prescribed...if I get 30 I really only need 3 or 4).
    I don't think the FDA will require the efficacy of every other version of ADT Elite submits. I think at most they will require one more. I know plenty of people who work for the government and I think they try to do a good job. If the FDA wanted to stick it to Elite they could of required a trial with thousands of patients.

  • Reply to

    Disclosure

    by rfwelsh Feb 20, 2015 2:25 PM
    kayak_wench kayak_wench Feb 20, 2015 3:39 PM Flag

    I don't think they will start another efficacy study until the current one is completed and the FDA has had a chance to examine it. The CEO mentioned in the recent call that the FDA may not require such efficacy studies for all of their submission. I can't see him paying 4 million to do a study unless he feels he has to. Given the plug and play nature of the ADT it makes since if one works the rest will. I think he will wait until the current study succeeds and then ask the FDS if they want such studies on future submissions. He may want to move along the studies he knows he has to do for any NDA though. And I think he is attached to having a rainy day fund (I just don't think he feels he can't go a month or more before starting to build it back up). I expect him to build back up to 3 or 4 million in the bank before the fall.

  • Reply to

    Disclosure

    by rfwelsh Feb 20, 2015 2:25 PM
    kayak_wench kayak_wench Feb 20, 2015 3:06 PM Flag

    It is a bit of a conundrum for new investors as to whether the CEO will immediately build up his rainy day fund. I'm not so sure he will do that in the middle of the rainy day. If he believes next quarters revenues will be much better because of the new generic he is smarter enough to wait. He has the cost of all needed tests covered. Next quarter will include not only the new generic sales, but also the milestone payment. The stock will likely get a boost from a PR indicating 20+% increase in revs. That is when he will probably start replenishing his rainy day fund.
    The CEO has been to optimistic in previous estimates and outcomes. He has done this several times and the stock has suffered. But he is not dumb, and as evidenced by his decision to update the website even after saying it wasn't a high priority indicates he listens and learns even from us retail investors. Because of this and looking at the time estimate from the completion of the March study to submission of the NDA I've been wondering if he told us the complete worst case scenario. A two month study needing 6 months to bring everything together seems excessive. If he worst cased it then we may see a submission very early in the 3rd quarter, or perhaps even at the tail end of the 2nd quarter. This speculation hinges on the CEO learning from past mistakes. Good luck to deciding when to jump in.

  • Looks like the florida store is getting ready to roll. They have new pictures with multiple trucks and talk about their new inventory. Also the cmorecars site has actual detailed information for 3 trucks (unique VIN numbers and all). That site's content has also been updated with new information to reflect the higher power ratings mentioned in the recent press release for the 2nd electric car charging contract "Technology that transforms any class 2-8 truck into a mobile generator capable of producing AC power ranging from 120 V to 480 V, available in various sizes from 20kVA up to 400 kVA." My guess is the Florida store won't open until after the work truck show in early march because that was billed as the first public demonstration. But at least this activity means the store is still planned. Also I've been wondering how HPEV could promise Spirit Bear they would pay them a certain amount of money on a given date. Gives me reason to hope that a license payment is expected. I think things are going to start getting interesting. If there is truly a market interested in the mobil generation technology we should see price action immediately following the work truck show.

  • In the investor's presentation on the companies website they say they are in final development of a oil free transformer. This application has never been mentioned by the company below. Their background is mechanical engineering, ever application on their site is geared toward mechanical engineering applications. Makes you wonder where the idea for this electrical engineering application came from? What follows is pure speculation on my part, and no one should purchase based on my speculation!
    I've been wondering if the 'secret' company they are working with to commercialize the motor/generator application is Siemens and they are the ones who suggested this application. Siemens is a manufacturer of motor, generators, and transformers. The most recent board member is the current Chief Technology Officer for Siemens Industry, Inc. Drive Technology AND serves as Vice Chairman for the NEMA (National Electrical Manufacturers Association) Technical Committee. Seems like he would be just the person to make that connection.
    Now consider whether Siemens would allow a high level executive to publicly support a technology that will be licensed and make profits for their competitors? Siemens certainly had to bless Mr. Finley's involvement with HPEV. The reason for keeping the company they are working with on motor/generator application given was to prevent competition for knowing what they are doing. Seems to me that there could be an announcement of a exclusive license deal will be made with Siemens to utilize HPEV's technology in motors/generators, and transformers. The rational for not previously announcing it is that they are waiting to make the deal at the same time the equipment is available to purchase (to justify the license fee not being paid before revenue can be reaped and to keep the competitors on their toes).
    My two cents, but pure speculation, buyer beware.

  • We are very close to making the NDA submission or worst case having any remaining tests needed before filing clearly defined. I expect one of those two will be learned by CC. When that happens I think the stock price will stabilize, and the move to the big boards will be sealed. These days the FDA works hard to only accept NDA filings that are complete, this is shown through the %approval of NDAs moving to above 95% in the last few years. Less than 10% of filings are not approved (this is different from the FDA rejecting the submission...in those cases the NDA is never considered for approval or disapproval) and in recent years less than that, and those are almost all associated with companies choosing NOT to do a test the
    FDA requests. Elite has made it clear they will do whatever the FDA asks. I'm still crossing my fingers that Elite has already submitted and is waiting to have the application approved (which is typical) before releasing a PR.

  • kayak_wench kayak_wench Jan 30, 2015 4:08 PM Flag

    Think you meant why doesn't it show up? If that is what you are asking its because SA is no longer letting Yahoo have links to their articles. I read that because I subscribe through seeking Alpha. Yahoo hasn't had a SA article in months on any stock.

  • The motor deal is a complete mystery, but the pumps is a partnership with ESSCO to sell their pumps. An announcement that those are also now available for purchase and a visible demo like the upcoming work truck trade show would really get this moving. Its been a year that ESSCO announced they would be developing a pump using HPEVs technology. We have got to be getting close to that being done.

  • Reply to

    it keeps brewing...........

    by stevenptruong Jan 29, 2015 2:13 PM
    kayak_wench kayak_wench Jan 29, 2015 4:15 PM Flag

    I think its the article, and I've been waiting for it to hit. I have seen lots of stocks move because of a seeking alpha article. That isn't a bad thing. The people who can put out a real article (versus one of those on the blogs) have been vetted little bit and seem to carry some clout of honesty. I had finally decided another SA article shouldn't be done until after the FDA approved the NDA submission. But in hind sight it makes sense the SA author wouldn't wait that long because at that point the investment will be obvious to anyone. By reporting now (just before earnings and the CEO has always timed some sort of good PR with the CC) its highly likely the authors opinion will be validated in the next couple of weeks. I expect the news to be either we either learn of the acceptance of the NDA submission or exactly what test is needed before submitting. Either one of those will remove a lot of uncertainty and provide a basis for a high stock price. But as the SA article points out anyone with half a brain don't need that news to see there is little uncertainty now. The only thing ELTP did negative this year was to be late on some of its deliverables. Companies do that on an almost regular basis, much less pharma where there is the wild card of the FDA response time.
    If the new buyers are long-term investors rather than day traders I think we will see a nice gain from here hopefully through the rest of the year as the expected news reveals itself.

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