The revenue is about 2.3 million a quarter. Call it 9.2 million a year. The number of shares outstanding is ~700 million. 9.2/700 = 1.3 cents. Now multiple this by 15 to 25 to get 0.19 to 0.33 cents per share. The 0.40 is probably factoring expected increases in sales and using the higher ratio.
To get this one has to ignore the expenses of bringing the ART to market, but I think that is the point; to pretend if there was no ART what would the company be worth. The only reason they are not revenue positive is because of spending on ART. If you toss in development costs then you also have to toss in milestone payments (as both are one-time deals). Regardless their point is that the current price is well justified based on their generic business alone. Epic paid $15million to market SequestOx. They wouldn't of done that unless they expect to get that money back quickly. So it is a conservative estimate to see a doubling of price in the next year based on just Sequest Ox. But that would be a price of what is in hand, and the stock market likes to look forward. So it is more likely to triple or more because more ART products and generics will be coming to market over the next 2 or 3 years.
Now Nasarat could burn through all the revenue brough in by SequestOx and then some by starting development of multiple drugs in parallel. Which would mean revenues could remain near zero. But if that were to happen with revenues from SequestOx being in the 10s of millions I think the stock would be priced as a research company and not generic manufactuer because its potential profit will be well understood. So I feel even under those circumstances a doubling if accepted in July is conservative.
So the Emerson business unit Kato not only conducted the tests on the 625KVA generator, but will also supply the "production level" quantities of software and equipment for mobile generation. I read the blurb about suppliers as saying for the small purchases they will use Inverom and the southern California Ford truck company (who will buy the parts from whomever and tack on a profit), but that Kato would provide the software and associated hardware for large fleet purchases. Emerson has two brands, one of which is Kato and it specializes in "oil & gas, mining, power conditioning, and the military along with Motor-generator sets." Kato being involved in two business areas (a potential customer of generator/lisense for generator and a mobile power generation supplier) is a good sign. It means they have Emerson engineers interested and involved.
If you look at the picture of the generator test included in the yearly (this is not the 2013 rehashed photo we have been seeing), this test involved access to a large, expensive generator, and Emerson paying Kato engineers to approve, design, setup and conduct testing. It would be interesting to know if they came up with the plan to alter Warm's dispersion unit to produce consistent results within a specific parameter jointly with Kato engineers. So they are still working on the add-on cooling method, and that they probably have a long way to get to an integrated unit, but it seems product development is continuing to move in the right direction.
Blurb from yearly about KATO supplying equipment:
"For mobile power generation, the required software and its vehicle integration will be supplied by Inverom Corporation along with partner truck up-fitters. Production level quantities will be handled by KATO Engineering, a brand manufactured by Emerson Industrial Automation, a division of Emerson Electric Company, with a backup of multiple other sources, if needed, such as Regal Beloit, Generac, etc
Seriously who did they send to the WorkTruckShow and why? Who thinks using a business tweet account is an appropriate venue for stupid jokes? You would NOT see this level of immaturity on Siemens or Emerson's websites or tweet accounts. What it reveals is that they have nothing intelligent or business related to share with us.
"More NTEA schtick. Look at a vehicle very intently When someone asks Can I help you? Say “Yeah. Ya got anything in a plaid?” #WorkTruckShow"
No mention of cash to pay for production manager of dry pit submersibles. No mention of 25 orders for pumps. Back tracked on most of positives and details described in yearly summary. Over 1 million in payables coming up this year. No mention of when revenues are expected. This was the most vague uninformative quarterly I have seen from them. But maybe its because they are being honest rather than making stuff up.
Price will crash from here.
This company looks like a scam more and more. Newest advisory board members get shares, we get lower prices. Nice.
From Oct press release
"San Francisco CA, October 23, 2015 -- (MARKET WIRE) – Hybrid Coating Technologies Inc. (HCTI:
OTCBB) is pleased to announce that it has entered into a definitive exclusive distribution agreement with
a US based coatings distributor for several of Hybrid’s floor coating formulations. Under the terms of the
agreement, the distributor will place and pay for a preliminary order of one 20 foot container of coatings
over the next two weeks for $160,000. "
In the yearly just put out
"We have had no significant operating revenues for the year ended December 31, 2015, save for samples sales of $5,815. "
I have a tiny tiny position just to force me to watch this stock to see if I want invest more (because someone highly recommended it). This lack of follow through is concerning. If I missed the reference to the Oct distribution agreement in the 10K please point it out.
Maybe your like me and can't figure out if its a good thing or bad. If your not tracking the recent changes as far as I can tell they renegotiated the settlement to be about 40% of the original number of shares for about 40% of the original strike price. So 0.10 is the likely going to be the new low. Plus the old 14 million shares were to expire Jan 2017, whereas these expire Jan 2020. They haven't filed anything with the SEC saying the got the consent of the final third party, nor have we seen them submit a filing for shares sold. All this happened in Feb, and in March SB grabbed 700,000 shares but price of those were N/A and they have no expiration date. Which seemed odd at the time, not sure what is/was going on with those shares.
In the short term with no revenue the price will be going lower. I'm surprised the market has absorbed the increase in volume we have seen. I also have mixed emotions about Bibb buying a few thousand shares a day . It feels like he may be doing it to keep the trading going at something they have decided is a reasonable price. But then again given it is his own $$ it probably indicates his confidence in the long term even if we are at a soft spot now. But who really knows with this stock, shareholders sure don't guess we get told nothing and have to sit back and guess. The PR about the settlement buried the details the best it could.
In early April the WSJ had an article about utility companies joining forces to stockpile critical pieces of electrical equipment that can be rushed to power companies if they are hit by terrorist attacks or other disasters that could cause extended blackouts. WARM's MG can be the solution to the loss of any of the critical components (i.e. components that cost millions and take a long time to construct).
The pitch WARM should be making is to the utility companies and the government is that having a fleet of vehicles evenly distributed across the country is a robust, economic solution to this risk. Their onboard power provides value in their day to day activities (i.e. its not a waste if a large disaster or tourist attack never happens), and as a quick, versatile response to a loss generators, high voltage transformers or transmission lines. There selling point should be that they replace the centralized power generation quickly and cheaply at the distribution level (i.e. plug into the grid at the distribution stubstations or at key buildings/installations). By minimizing the impact of destroying large electrical components it makes it very hard for anyone with ill intent to have much of an impact. If someone takes out a large substation near Los Angeles, the local utilities would be able to send their trucks with WARM’s MB to critical locations thus restoring power in a few hours to key places. Trucks in the rest of the country could then be redirected to the affected area (through agreements as those described for sharing large transformers) until the all distribution grids are back on line.
They need to do the math of how many trucks would be needing to restore power to a large city. Once they get that number (say it would take 1000 trucks), they then need to intelligently allocate this number across all utilities in the country. Large utilities (like ConEd and PG&E) would be required to keep more trucks on hand, and small cities perhaps may only need to have one or two. The focus should be that this would not be wasted money, that they would be returning value whether or not a disaster or attack occurs. This should be sold as a buy now so you are immediately prepared, not wait until disaster strikes (which was part of the silliness I found in their generator PR). The utility industry and government have been fretting about this risk since the mid-90s. WARM's generators could give them the solution they need.
Utilities already redirect trucks like this during disasters. If you have ever evacuated an the Gulf coast during a storm you will recall caravan's of trucks utility trucks from neighboring states driving south toward the storm as you drive north.
If nothing else maybe they should try to partner with a utility and start looking for government requests for proposals to tackle this problem to see if they can get funding to test the viability of using multiple MG units to replace power.
I watched this for a couple of months after its third final rejection Aug 24, 2015, but stopped when when they didn't try to resurrect it. Looks like they took another shot at it in mid-Feb. My guess is they tweak the patent to work around the examiner's issues with the patent application. I also would assume each time they try this they have to pay $$$, but I don't know that for sure. Unfortunately this attempt has garnered a fourth non-final rejection. They will get an opportunity to respond to that non-final rejection. Given the back and forth to this point, and that they are still trying, I'm going to allow myself to be a little hopeful that they will nail down what they need to do. I wouldn't expect it to take several months before any more activity occurs on this patent. It is within the realm of possibility that the further review could result in patent acceptance.
BTW, I am pleased that this is patent it not yet considered dead in the water.
Someone is replying to a few of the stupid tweets and the "Cool" twitter guy is defending them. He is obviously naive about how what appears to be humorous to a small group, distributed to the masses can offend and then destroy careers and company reputations. I would think a company would want to stay on the straight and narrow on twitter. The mixing in with politics is really shortsighted as one person's ideal candidate is another person's worst person on the planet...thus making any market smaller.
I'm not sure why they are touting the influence of the truck show, it did nothing for them last year (but be sure they were accepting orders then), and they didn't even have posters of text describing a product to take this year.
The hybrid parallel assis experienced its 4th non-final rejection in Feb, now the parallel power input gearbox has gotten its first non-final rejection. This means more cost to secure the pattens, and an issue with the scope of what is protected. Hopefully they will eventually get them through. But more importantly we need revenues now. An update would be nice, maybe Hassett will get back to the blog before the end of the year and let us know what happened to those 25 pumps. So much promise in the technology, so little follow through from management.
They are going to have to be very careful selling now without news. At 0.34 and their warrants costing them 0.25 it will only take one or two hundred of dilution at best to lower the price below 0.25y. That will at least put a limit on the damage they can do.
You have a point. I don't think they will sell below 0.25 unless they are really desperate for cash or they think they won't have time to unload all shares before 2017. But is they do push the price down to 0.25 and the non-stop dilution begins all those shareholders who have been buying in the 30 to 50 cent range could freak out and dump also, bringing the price back to the teens. The only way this could be good is if they know about an upcoming revenue announcement and got the shares to sell into it. But that has NEVER happened before so I wouldn't put much into it happening now. Back to teens it likely is.
WARM's latest tweet is below....so they didn't participate in the Work Truck Show as they claimed they would last year, instead they apparently sent a twelve year old boy with a cell phone to tweet about the event. Yep, WARM's management is impressive.
"Looking for fun things to do at the NTEA? Go to the booth selling tie downs & ask about their 50 Shades of Grey special #WorkTruckShow"
Not to worry, this was just posted 40 minutes ago by CoolTech. They are up and working hard in Florida with an early start of 10 a.m EDT.
"Beignets, boudins and Mello Joy coffee or sugar & spice with Tabasco sauce. The eyelids have slammed open. Cajun breakfast day at CoolTech"
My guess its Bibbs that does the tweets as it is obviously by someone who doesn't understand what snippets of technology articles make sense. Seems like with all his experience in multi-media he could put together a You Tube video of a mobile generating unit, one has to conclude that such a device simply doesn't exist.
From the website the only thing he is good for is communication, ironic given that is the investors major complaint, we don't much and what we do get has no substantive value. The on update that was important was the latest test results of 400% increase in power output. But that has not been incorporated into the companies link on Therman Dispersion- Third Party testing section. Either it didn't actually happen, or Bibb needs more coffee to do his job.
They built up a marketing, finance, and installation system for their mobile generation in the south western portion of the U.S. Breiten Capital will loan money to customers, and they have a large QVM (Quality Vehicle Modifier) Ford dealership that is willing to install their product in customers trucks. The QVM doesn’t mean Ford backs the technology, but it does mean the mechanics installing the technology understand how to do the modifications without damaging the truck, and perform the work following Ford’s recommendations for manufacturing, quality, and customer support. All these items provide credibility that will make it easier for a fleet to decide to retrofit a few vehicles. A big improvement over the previous choice of pulling into a small retrofit UPT garage of a company no one has ever heard of.
They have identified the first market customers who continues two generators. For these customers it doesn’t matter what the cost of fuel is, not longer having to tow a generator will be a significant advantage in terms of convenience and safety. While the potential revenue is going to not in the billions, any revenue is good at this point and it will validate the technology.
new board member, Bedi had an impressive (and it ended positively) tenure at Ford and has continued his career in relevant areas to WARM. He brings not only a business network and trust that goes with his untarnished tenure, but also marketing and finance experience. His involvement and belief in the revenue potential of the mobile generation technology likely greased the wheels to getting a large Ford dealership involved.
Hassette and Bibb purchased almost 1.5 million shares between them in Feb, after the Jan 2016 pump and Oct 2015 generator tests. Likely meaning no catastrophic design failures were revealed. The chance of such design failures decreases as more testing is performed.
Given we actually got updates recently, I thought I put on my optimistic hat and give a nod to the positives that have developed in the past few months. As a disclaimer all of them assume what we are hearing from the company is true, or at least close to the truth. They all point to progress being made to brining the technologies to market and securing revenue. While these events seem to show things are moving forward I do not think revenue is imminent. But with these developments I think the risk of not succeeding to some extent in at least one area is getting smaller.
dry pit submersibles
a new test in 2016 with significant improvement in power density. This component has been tested a few other times since 2013. The improvements are likely due to improvements in design since 2013 and transition from prototype unit to a properly machined/casted unit. Company has brought on a product manager to launch the product. Also, the spokesperson commenting on this is the Emerson executive. Potential significant given Emerson has been revealed to be testing the generator/alternator technology. Perhaps the size of the potential improvement in power density performance is piquing their interest in using their technology pump market.
The testing done in Oct was done on an Emerson generator using an testing company associated with Emerson, which leads one to believe Emerson is one of the potential licensees. Having such a large company interested in very significant. Obviously no legal documents have been signed or agreements made, but their involvement is a positive. Should they adopt the technology its credibility will be sealed. Testing resulted in need for more design work, but the fact they told us about it is a welcome change. Insider buying after the test indicates the design issues are not likely to be insurmountable.
Your funny, I am pretty sure the only person who ever hypothesized that they abandoned the Hybrid parallel was me, and that was based on them not responding to the final rejection in a timely manner. The USPTO has not documented it as abandoned. It is certainly active and waiting for a response from the latest non-final rejection. As I noted in a previous post, they revived it from the dead this Feb. Please do some DD and don't rely on others comments (especially if it is the same person you are trying to flame, ouch!). As for your comment that "you always get a first notice rejection". This is going to make you feel more angry and unhappy with me, but 2 of the 5 patents WARM has were granted with ZERO rejections. As to not having anything useful to say, some investors and potential investors don't/can't keep track of the patents (like you for example). I didn't slam them for first rejection, I just documented for anyone interested. I was also glad to see them revive the Hybrid Parallel Load Assist. In fact if you look at the date of the request for RCE on that patent (Feb 16) it might make someone ponder whether they had help from their latest advisor in pulling together what the hope will be a successful resurrection of that patent. I am simply reporting the facts.
Facts about their 5 patents granted to date:
Electric motor with heat pipes "1" had 1 non-final rejection
Electric motor with heat pipes "2" had 1 non-final rejection
Electric motor with heat pipes "3" had ZERO rejections
Totally enclosed heat pipe motor had ZERO rejections
Head pipe bearing cooler systems and methods had 1 non-final rejection
As I have consistently stated, I do not want them to rush the product, but I do want honesty and good management practices. If they had a good solid plan, and did their due diligence they wouldn't of put out that embaressingly wrong, very misleading, letter to share holders last year. It brings Hassett's credibility and honesty into question.
These were not warrants as they were reported in Table 1 of form 4 which is reserved for non-derivatives. We can all see from the price on 2/3/2016 they were not made on the open market, so that means they were a private purchase. Why lameness is implying they were warrants is a mystery. There is no mention of warrants about to expire for these insiders any any of the historical SEC filings.
So despite what lameness is implying these guys put down actual money to buy these shares. Yes they got to do it privately, yes they did it the day before they released meaningful information. But they also didn't sell any shares as part of that run up (unless they did it in April after the new quarter started). So I don't see any down side to these stock purchases. Only up-side.
As for saying its an SEC violation I think that is a big leap. Insiders typically have prearranged windows of periods they can be stock and if they buy then its o.k. Plus if they don't sell on the news how did they benefit from the purchase (seriously we may end up back at 0.16).
Your so far down I would suggest holding. The negative things about this company is too little communication and way overly optimistic estimates of progress and timetable for revenue. But they have added a successful business man who has enough money and potential new income based on his own skill and reputation that he would not risk it on something that isn't likely to succeed much less be embarrassing. Also Emerson would not let their name be associated with a inept or suspect company. Because of these two recent events of external validation I think there is an almost a zero chance they are lying or faking anything, and a very good chance they will bring in revenue within 12 months.
So just keep waiting. You have nothing more to lose at this point....well not much compared to what you have already lost.
The post (that has since been deleted) got me to thinking whether I was reading the deal wrong when I said it looks like few warrants for SB. So went digging, and I think I still believe the deal is for fewer warrants. The strike price is lower and the expiration date further out, but it looks to me like there are fewer warrants for SB. For example they used to have 6,800,000 Series A warrants and now they have 2,000,000.
From an S-1/A from Sept 2015
This prospectus relates to the resale, from time to time, of up to 14, 287,313 shares of common stock consisting of (i) 487,313 shares of our common stock currently issued and outstanding held by Spirit Bear Limited ("Spirit Bear") and its assignees, (ii) 6,000,000 shares of common stock issuable upon the exercise of warrants at an exercise price of $0.25 per share, with an expiration date of January 29, 2017 and 1,000,000 of which expire on December 14, 2015, and (iii) 6,800,000 shares of common stock issuable upon the conversion of Series A Preferred Stock (the "Preferred Stock") by the selling stockholders identified in this prospectus
Series A - Spirit Bear: quantity = 1,800,000 price = $0.10 expire = 1/29/2020
Series B - Spirit Bear: quantity = 1,800,000 price = $0.10 expire = 1/29/2020
Series C - Spirit Bear: quantity = 1,800,000 price = $0.10 expire = 1/29/2020
Series A - Lorenzo: quantity = 200,000 price = $0.10 expire = 1/29/2020
Series B - Lorenzo: quantity = 200,000 price = $0.10 expire = 1/29/2020
Series C - Lorenzo: quantity = 200,000 price = $0.10 expire = 1/29/202