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Cypress Semiconductor Corporation Message Board

kaychen45 331 posts  |  Last Activity: Apr 5, 2014 10:13 AM Member since: Sep 9, 2009
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  • kaychen45 by kaychen45 Apr 5, 2014 10:13 AM Flag

    No news !!! GSIT down 4.58% that is really weird.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • kaychen45 by kaychen45 Mar 4, 2014 2:09 PM Flag

    GSIT must have some good news ??

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Analyst upgrade !!!

    by kaychen45 Feb 26, 2014 1:38 PM
    kaychen45 kaychen45 Feb 26, 2014 2:00 PM Flag

    David King - Roth Capital Partners

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • kaychen45 by kaychen45 Feb 26, 2014 1:38 PM Flag

    On 2/26/2014: Roth raises Target price to $5.0 from $4.50 , rating neutral .

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    New SEC filing

    by skittle12345 Feb 21, 2014 8:56 PM
    kaychen45 kaychen45 Feb 22, 2014 12:25 AM Flag

    Excellent posting: thanks
    I saw it SEC filing on 2/21/2014 filing

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    CLF

    by chartdnli Feb 19, 2014 2:51 PM
    kaychen45 kaychen45 Feb 21, 2014 2:59 PM Flag

    Thanks
    chartdnli has a safe and good trip to costa rica and a good time over there.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • kaychen45 kaychen45 Feb 20, 2014 12:58 PM Flag

    J just found a posting on Vale:
    by golfshoeson2001 • Feb 18, 2014 2:32 PM
    Vale sold on Friday a 94,802 tonne shipment for of 64.?%fe for $134.62 per tonne. The spot for 62% was at approx. 123/tonne. This kind of premium should be the norm going forward.

    Wow the difference was $11.62 !!!!

    CLF produces 64% Iron ore !!!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    EPS & PE comparison

    by kaychen45 Feb 19, 2014 12:31 PM
    kaychen45 kaychen45 Feb 20, 2014 12:09 PM Flag

    Who controls CLF stock ???

    If CLF gets PE = 15 ----- = 2.37 * 15 = 35.55
    PE= 20 ------- 47.4

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • kaychen45 kaychen45 Feb 20, 2014 11:33 AM Flag

    part #3

    (I) I believe that the IO cost curve is flattened now that means the IO price will be stable between 2014 – 2017.

    (J)How to make money from this stabilized IO price
    (a) Cost reduction
    (b) Reduce debt
    (c) Cut Cap expense

    My Conclusion:

    CLF will be fine, just hold on your shares then
    you will be rewarded soon !!!!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • kaychen45 kaychen45 Feb 20, 2014 11:29 AM Flag

    part #2:
    Let me just type yearly additional IO production for you:
    2013: 77 MT that was absorbed by China
    2014: 133 MT
    2015: 109 MT

    (C) China GDP increment & IO import increment projection
    ****** 2013 ****** 7.5 %
    ****** 2014 ***** 7.5 % --------  = 820 MT * 0 .075 = 61.5 MT
    ****** 2015 ****** 7.5 % --------- = 881.5 MT * 0.075 = 66.0 MT

    (D) I judge From (B) & (C) data that we should have excess IO supply of 51.5 MT in 2014 & additional 43 MT in 2015.

    (E) China imported 60% - 65% of seaborne IO: that means

    Seaborne world-wide production in 2013: = 820 MT / 0.60 = 1367 MT
    or
    Seaborne world-wide production in 2013: = 820 MT / 0.65 = 1262 MT

    World-wide Low quality of IO production: is between 442 MT to 547 MT

    (F) China Smog issue & $125 IO stable price:
    (F-1) retire a lot of low quality & high cost IO producers in China
    (F-2) retire a lot of low quality IO producers like India, Iran, Indonesia, and Mexico because of
    the higher sulfur content in their ores that generates higher levels of pollutants when it is
    removed during processing. Iron ore from these countries contains about1.5% to 2% sulfur,
    compared to high quality IO sulfur content of just 0.05%.

    (G) From (E) & (F) Data: I believe the surplus of IO production will be absorbed by retirement of low
    quality producers . The same statement was also from CEO of Fortescue on Business Outlook, Iron
    Ore Market 2/18/2014

    In 2013: Low quality IO produced by these countries was between 442 MT to 547 MT vs.
    Surplus of IO production in 2014: 51.5 MT
    Surplus of IO production in 2015: 43.0 MT

    We have a lot low quality IO for retirement !!!!

    (H) The imbalance of supply & demand will be minimum and IO price will be stable.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Recently, CLF went down was due to a lot of reasons: (1) China weak demand / bad PMI (2) too much new capacity of IO production, supply larger than demand at 2nd half of 2014 (3) IO price is going down (4) FED interest rate hike (5) Steel makers decline after U.S. excludes Korean steel pipe from tariffs

    Shorts take advantage of these negative news and bring down CLF stock price.
    The fundamental of CLF is very good now but not stock price that is controlled by Wall Street & shorts.

    Let me discuss 5 issues that I just list:

    4 of them will be non issue
    We all know (1) China PMI will be good in March/2014
    (3) IO price reaches a stable price ~ $125 in 2014.
    (4) The time line of FED rate hike will be in 7/2015.
    (5) Tariff issue will have no effect to IO price.

    But 1 thing (item #2): we never try hard to discuss and understand on this CLF message board:

    What is the additional IO supply for each year ?
    Why analysts all talk about the demand will be exceed supply in 2017 ??

    Let us face this reality and discuss these 2 issues:

    After searching a few articles, I summary the following data (if I am wrong, please correct my data).

    (A) China import data: source (a) The Future Of Iron Ore Mar. 27, 2013 by: CMI Research
    (b) Fortescue CEO on Business Outlook, Iron Ore Market 2/18/2014

    Year **** Import amount **** increment Tons %
    (1) 2011 **** 682 MT
    (2) 2012 **** 743 MT ********* 61 MT ************** 8%
    (3) 2013 **** 820 MT ********* 77 MT ************* 10%

    (B) Australia additional IO supply: The Future Of Iron Ore Mar. 27, 2013 by: CMI Research
    That got these data from Citi

    Too bad: data were removed by Yahoo

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    CLF

    by chartdnli Feb 19, 2014 2:51 PM
    kaychen45 kaychen45 Feb 20, 2014 9:43 AM Flag

    Thanks

    Good luck to all !!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • (1) China has a huge trade positive with USA.
    Chinese Government really wants to reduce this imbalance through buying a lot of USA goods.
    So there is a policy that USA products are in the 1st buying priority in China.

    (2) Highest quality IO: CLF produces the highest grade of IO (64 % IO) that gets $8 - $14 more per ton than 62%. China tries very hard to reduce Smog !!!! so China needs high quality of IO.

    (3) Per CC: CLF just shipped IO with a 400 K ton of ship that reduced the shipping cost by 1/3 to oversea customer.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    The subject of short sellers and CLF pt 1

    by newbiedoobie001 Feb 20, 2014 8:53 AM
    kaychen45 kaychen45 Feb 20, 2014 9:21 AM Flag

    Excellent postings, well said & your postings are very informative & helpful !!!

    Hope China will have a stimulus plan soon !!!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Thanks to CLF new Management team & Casa !!!

    Why ??

    (A) CLF just reported an excellent earning report by (1) cost cutting (2) stop spending like a gambler (3) reduce debt (4) new CEO on board etc...

    (B) Casa put all the CLF issues on the table so we can put pressure on CLF.

    Team work is very important.

    Do you remember LeBron James who was from Cleveland Cavalier ??
    He couldn't get his Championship ring for a few years that was because the lack of team work at final so he left Cleveland and went to Miami (Heat ).

    Within 2 years, he got his wish !!!

    Man !!! 2 years hard work !!!

    Please give this new CLF management team a few months to do their job !!!
    Everything will be fine within 6 months !!!!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • kaychen45 by kaychen45 Feb 19, 2014 12:31 PM Flag

    Per Yahoo Finance on 2/19/2014:

    ************** EPS ****** PE
    CLF ******** 2.37 ******* 9.30
    FMG.AX *** 0.56 ******10.41
    Vale ****** 0.89 ****** 16.32
    BHP.AX **** 2.04 ****** 19.02
    RIO.AX **** 1.97 ****** 35.38

    CLF has the highest EPS & lowest PE.

    It is really unfair & unjustification !!!

    Shorts control CLF stock price !!!!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Baseless Move Down

    by w999surf Feb 19, 2014 11:56 AM
    kaychen45 kaychen45 Feb 19, 2014 12:05 PM Flag

    Add 3 K more !!!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • kaychen45 kaychen45 Feb 19, 2014 12:02 PM Flag

    One more thing:

    Yesterday, a few posting discuss the steel export of China:

    I agree with all the postings that China wants to keep this Steel industry !!!

    Do you know who supplied Steel to build the Bay Bridge (The bridge between San Francisco & Oakland) ???
    China ( Shanghai ) !!!

    Do you know the cost of Bay Bridge ???

    Wow !!! 6.4 B !!!!!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • kaychen45 by kaychen45 Feb 19, 2014 11:51 AM Flag

    If my Over Blown IO price issue & ... didn't cheer you up !!!

    Then read my next posting:

    Did you watch David & White Ice dancing (Free Style) !!!

    This performance was so magnificent !!!

    Wow 17 years of hard work !!

    Proud to be An American !!!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Per CEO of FMG.AX

    (1) In 2013: China imported 820 MT that was 10% increment comparing 2012.
    (2) China steel production ramping up: 2 MT per day production now !!!
    (3) Why China IO demand high ?
    (a) China urbanization: move 200 M people to urbanized living through 2020 !! build skyscrapers = steel
    (b) retired all high cost & low quality China IO producers.
    (4) New capacity of IO production: most of new supplies were coming on in 2013 and absorbed by China high (huge ) demand.
    (5) Soft IO price: stable IO price in 2014
    (6) flatting cost curve: need a lot of more new supplies to bring down IO price but the retirement of China high cost IO will stabilize the IO price.

    Please watch this video, then you will feel better !!!
    Fortescue CEO on Business Outlook, Iron Ore Market
    http://us.rd.yahoo.com/finance/external/video/bloomberg/SIG=13eieq4e9/*http://www.bloomberg.com/video/fortescue-ceo-on-business-outlook-iron-ore-market-RytjP1IvRXSW8pFLkCjYQg.html?cmpid=yhoo

    Another news that brings down X and causing CLF stock price down
    Steel makers decline after U.S. excludes Korean steel pipe from tariffs
    U.S. Steel (X) and a number of other steelmakers are falling after the U.S. Department of Commerce declined to impose tariffs on South Korean steel pipes. WHAT'S NEW: After investigating allegations that South Korean companies were selling steel pipes used by energy companies at unfairly low prices, the Department of Commerce said yesterday that it had found no evidence of such behavior by Korean companies. Consequently, the department decided not to impose tariffs on imports of those steel pipes from Korea. However, the department did say it had found evidence of dumping of steel pipes by eight other countries, including India and Taiwan. Among the companies whose pipes compete with those of Korean manufacturers are U.S. Steel and Luxembourg's Tenaris (TS).

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

CY
9.74-0.03(-0.31%)Apr 16 4:00 PMEDT

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