yes, I think SLW got dragged up by the retrace in gold as silver never budged when SLW pulled back up. Sunday night should be the tell as SLW is hoping for a rally in silver back above the 50dma. Without a bounce in silver Sunday night I think it is ripe for a gap lower. Still waiting for a flat silver day with SLW down a nice clip as it has been a long time coming.
I like the 23.85 area, we could meet the 50dma there at the 50% retrace. I think 23.23 would be the the cat's meow. At 23.23 with silver at 20.88, the premium would be back to fair value as well. Either way for me, I would like to see a day of real weakness in SLW independent of the metals which hasn't happened in 30 days. I think this condition would be required to see these price targets met as the 200dma in silver should slow the decline enough for SLW to remain strong unless it gives in which I am positioned for. As always, the monkey wrench is earnings. If we don't move before then I will need to build out an options hedge all while trying to capture some volatility in lieu of premium paid to hedge off the SLW short, as it is large for me with the current stream premium. I would much rather go in flat to fade either direction after earnings if there is a gap.
Need another dip in silver to break this thing below the 25.10 area trend line. SLW keeps hoping silver makes a run to close back above the 50dma so it can continue to live in denial.
SLW has definitely traded opposite today. For the first time in a month it is being sold into on silver strength and quick to fall on any silver weakness. This is a complete reversal of the playbook as of late. Obviously, this could all change in a heartbeat. The silver chart looks more constructive today going forward. I imagine that will drag SLW higher if it continues. That being said, SLW may not perform as well until the premium comes out. Earnings are in a couple of weeks, so I see a slight upward bias into earnings as the everyone knows they are on last quarters earnings and can then boost projections into higher prices for the first time in a while. I am sticking with the long silver futures and a short SLW hedge, al be it skewed long silver.
Yes, and by my spread analysis with SLW trading at an extreme premium we should see some fireworks tomorrow to either break higher and try and bust out of this flag to the upside on any strength in silver over night or have a reversal after the open and head down on heavy volume. If we break higher it would put the ratios back into the area they traded when silver was $50 an ounce and everything was out of whack and panicky. To see these extremes with the metals not far off their lows is very odd and points to the extreme valuations being placed on the miners in general. I picked up a little extra silver on the close for protection, I don't mind holding the extra contracts on the way down to collect on the SLW as the gap below is huge in comparison.
No idea, but SLW is under obvious accumulation up here. I suspect it will require something big to turn into selling of any magnitude.
Not sure, the price action says we should break higher and buying on the basis of this massive bull flag has been very profitable the last few weeks. Its almost hard to get filled long in the mornings because the buying comes in fast and hard. This seems to me to be more in line with a stock that is about to take off than fall. The only problem I have is that the metals are not moving which means this is purely p/e expansion on the part of SLW which as always will collapse as they are only a stream. With earnings in a couple of weeks and very few shorts covering on the run up in February I think they will cover into earnings and break this bull flag higher here. I am just buying silver futures on the dips as I believe this will drag them higher and I don't have to get caught in the exit door on SLW when it comes as this is merely p/e expansion, which is always an amateurs game. Good Luck
One thing I would recommend is to buy SLV instead of SLW here. If SLW breaks higher it will be because silver and gold are breaking higher and if SLW breaks down it will be because silver and gold break down. In either case you will make more on the upside in SLV and lose less on the downside because of the huge discount the physical is trading at currently to the streams.
SLW still building a bull flag here and betting on breaking higher, that is what the technicals are saying. It still isn't buying the silver slams to this point. Until we break 24.80 on a close you can buy every dip.
SLW has done a great job of predicting higher prices in the metals without falling for the games being played there. People are still paying over $24 an ounce via SLW here, so keep a leveraged long position in silver at $21.60 here and the payout should continue to be nice.
I think we have to close back under 25.65 to make this just a retrace. The miners are not buying the metal weakness and are still betting heavy on a surge in silver over 22 up to the 24 area. Could be month end stuff as the volume required to lift these is very small . We will see on the close if institutions are using these prices to distribute to the retail crowd or are really placing big bets on a surge in the metals. Short interest is way down, so really just a lack of sellers in here and small buying driving up into no offers. I'm still hanging short and buying the metals on these big dips. Nice buys in silver last night paying off but would like to see either SLW be proven right or wrong in it's speculation. If tomorrow SLW tries for new highs into month end, I think i will buy a lot of ATM puts for March against ATM calls in SLV in the event of a massive compression in the spread. Still not sure who is right or wrong so I don't want to play either side alone.
that would be great for physical holders, but something would have to be going on politically or economically of major importance. In thee short term it will be interesting to see the short interest numbers for the end of February, they may come in under $4 mill or close. That would again line up for a nice sell-off in the near term.
on what time frame? If silver to price that high then actual silver should be priced more aggressively, so you could see SLW trade at or below 39. The reason for this is that the higher the price the more contract risk you have as nations could step in and seize private mines. The lower silver trades the more premium you see in SLW. Volatility plays a large role as well as speculation. There are a lot of factors you have to consider. If the time frame is a year or two away, this could be gradual and thus impactful on the premium/discount relationship. If this were to happen suddenly, then something would be going on and I would not want to be long SLW but rather silver itself and probably gold.