I think we have to close back under 25.65 to make this just a retrace. The miners are not buying the metal weakness and are still betting heavy on a surge in silver over 22 up to the 24 area. Could be month end stuff as the volume required to lift these is very small . We will see on the close if institutions are using these prices to distribute to the retail crowd or are really placing big bets on a surge in the metals. Short interest is way down, so really just a lack of sellers in here and small buying driving up into no offers. I'm still hanging short and buying the metals on these big dips. Nice buys in silver last night paying off but would like to see either SLW be proven right or wrong in it's speculation. If tomorrow SLW tries for new highs into month end, I think i will buy a lot of ATM puts for March against ATM calls in SLV in the event of a massive compression in the spread. Still not sure who is right or wrong so I don't want to play either side alone.
If silver can hang in here today, we should be able to try and close back over 26. The range is still small on the day against silver and should expand at least another 20 cents, so barring a wipeout in the metals this should push SLW back up to 26 at some point.
looks like we all took the other side of that seller yesterday and he took it in the can. The stock is still mispriced here, fair value for today alone is $22ish with silver in the 20.10-20.20 area.
SLW and the miners are calling for a massive move higher in the price of silver and gold. It has been a few years since they were this confident, but the move they are predicting in the short term is one to take notice of as everyone is positioning for an event here.
SLW strong again today, higher lows and higher highs. If they can run it back over the 25.56 area in the last hour like usual, we should see a move back to the top of the flag at 26.40 at some point before the end of the week or at least into earnings. It does not move down with silver but any uptick in silver and it starts to run, building a stronger base.
SLW has done a great job of predicting higher prices in the metals without falling for the games being played there. People are still paying over $24 an ounce via SLW here, so keep a leveraged long position in silver at $21.60 here and the payout should continue to be nice.
yes, SLW is seriously overbought, but has been for a while now and could continue until people believe silver and gold have topped. SLW always tries to guess the future price of the metal itself and is a leveraged play both to the upside and downside. SLW buyers are still betting on near term strength in silver as they are pricing silver here at around $24 in the short to med. term. Fair value here for SLW is around $23.25-23.50. But all of that is irrelevant as long as money flows into SLW at a greater rate than people wish to sell.
The last time this much leverage was deployed via SLW was 2 years ago to put the recent move in perspective. SLW is way overbought, but the retail crowd rarely understands what they get themselves into until its too late. Until then i recommend taking a long position in silver instead of SLW for those of you that think silver is headed higher.
I like 26.40 better with silver here as a stretched move on the day to short SLW. the spread is still narrow today and SLW is betting on higher silver so I think 26.10 in a minute if silver stays here. It will be harder for it to push beyond that unless silver goes for 21.60 here. I think the base building the last few days provided a good call on higher silver and gold today and we should see some follow through tomorrow to the upside to try and break out of this huge bull flag. Silver will have to confirm overnight, but there are a lot of shorts still in SLW that did not cover during the big run up. I haven't seen the feb. month end numbers but it looks like they hung in there and will probably provide some lift into earnings next week. If we spike higher out of earnings to the 27.20 area, I will definitely fade it aggressively with puts and establish a hedge in silver as their forward p/e will be very high and the stream will be pricing in $26 silver, which is possible but not without SLW pausing as a move any higher would subsequently call for even higher silver and I don't see the reason for $50 silver in the short term, it would choke off demand.
Yes, flat here. SLW is trading too rich for my blood here but not rich enough to attempt a short. 22.20-22.25 with silver here for a short attempt on the day and all the way down near 21 even for a long attempt on the day with silver here. I presume I won't be doing anything today
SLW has definitely traded opposite today. For the first time in a month it is being sold into on silver strength and quick to fall on any silver weakness. This is a complete reversal of the playbook as of late. Obviously, this could all change in a heartbeat. The silver chart looks more constructive today going forward. I imagine that will drag SLW higher if it continues. That being said, SLW may not perform as well until the premium comes out. Earnings are in a couple of weeks, so I see a slight upward bias into earnings as the everyone knows they are on last quarters earnings and can then boost projections into higher prices for the first time in a while. I am sticking with the long silver futures and a short SLW hedge, al be it skewed long silver.
not a bad call. I would unload those or some if we trade anywhere near 20.20 on the day. If you have 100 of them you can short a silver future against and that will take care of you on the downside and if silver rallies your improving delta will more than carry the load on the upside
SLW still building a bull flag here and betting on breaking higher, that is what the technicals are saying. It still isn't buying the silver slams to this point. Until we break 24.80 on a close you can buy every dip.
He would not advertise on level 2 if he had a lot to sell, you see it when silver is stronger and SLW is met with selling pressure all day. Most programs will use an iceberg approach where all you see is a refreshed amount of small sell orders. You could have 100k to sell and only show 500 shares that refreshes back to 500 every time it is filled.