Ok, so fuzzy ventured onto the Cerner board once again a month ago to poke at monett4. In summary;
On November 11th, with CERN at 59, monett4 suggested it was time to buy.
On November 18th, with CERN at 58.25, fuzzy ridiculed moentt4 for this recommendation.
On December 29th, CERN closed at 61.85, UP over $3 1/2 from fuzzy's post.
A quick look at CERN's stock chart the past few months indicates that monett4 may have been real close to predicting a bottom for CERN, by actually calling a bottom. It appears that fuzzy has again called a future CERN gain by suggesting the opposite. This is getting too easy. His prediction accuracy is almost 0%. Which means, time and again, money could be made by doing the OPPOSITE of what fuzzy suggests.
I am waiting for his next prediction of gloom for CERN. That, I suspect, will be another very accurate signal that it is time to buy again.
Fuzzy, You have my congratulations for NOT being short CERN since 2001, and my condolences for NOT being long. As coincidence would have it, I made my first of many, many long positions in CERN in 2001 when its split adjusted price was $6.70. Now it is $58.75 and even though I have bought and sold over the years, I have remained at all times long, never short, never lost money, and my returns has multiplied accordingly, which always brings warm feelings to my heart. I have assumed in the past that your persistent, years-long, gray, cloudy, gloomy attitude about Cerner's future is the result of NOT having these warm feelings that great investment experiences can provide.
I don't claim to be the expert on short-term stock price fluctuations, but Cerner's recent pullback from its highs, on the heels of the good news of the DOD contract and its humongous potential, seems to be a result of short-term investor expectations; "I want my earnings, NOW!" The DOD win will take years to fully cash in on. Those of us who have been rewarded by patiently holding CERN long-term will undoubtedly be rewarded yet again.
Fuzzy, leave the dark side. Join us in the fight for truth, accuracy, justice, high investment returns, and warm feelings of the heart!
Perhaps. But perhaps not. I suggest it is too soon to tell. At the time Mr. Monett posted this, the stock was around 59. It is now about 58.25, down about 1.3%. I certainly would not suggest a big fail using those numbers. The real judge will be the results over the next year. And we know how good you are at forecasting that. ;-)
That sounds like short term thinking. "Screw the future! I want my earnings NOW!" Cerner has always put future growth before short term earnings. Also, you can't provide earnings on 'new contracts', no matter how hard you try.
Whoever would have real answers to those questions would be sitting pretty, but of course, the real answers only exist in the future, and those able to tell the future with certainty are like unicorns. Here are some thoughts, though...
1. Combining realistic and best case as guidance for this prediction, I suggest that $82 a share (after one future split in the next few years) best fits your guidance. That would be $194 at today's price, factoring in that future split. And yes, that does suggest continuing exponential growth. A simple statistical analysis of Cerner's stock price history demonstrates a consistent exponential growth, sometimes on hold for up to a few years, but consistent over the long term. Over the past 10 years, predictions of the end of exponential growth for CERN have been made by many, and proven woefully incorrect. Given the aging of people residing in nations with advance economies, coupled with the continuing population growth of the world in nations with developing economies, AND with the apparent willingness by most to throw a greater percentage of GDP at health care, a suggestion of continuing exponential growth for health care companies seems reasonable.
2. Very simply, competition is good for consumers, the suppliers, the industry, and the economy as a whole. Besides being very vision focused, Cerner historically has responded to both consumer demand as well as to competition. Having just vision, or just customer demand, or just competition as a motivator is not so good. Having all three is best. I fully expect Cerner to continue to respond to competition, for the benefit of all, including Cerner.
Are you confusing the European Organization for Nuclear Research (CERN) with The Cerner Corporation (CERN)?
On Wednesday, August 5th, with Cerner stock rebounding from a morning low of $63.25, rdgosc predicted the stock would go to $57 the week of August 10th. The week is over, so in order to determine if he is an adept and reasonable investor, let's see how he did, shall we?
During the past week, Cerner traded between $62 and $64.29, ending the week at $64.25. CERN actually closed the week up $1 from the morning low hours before rdgosc made his prediction.
The facts are in: rdgosc is not an adept investor, and acting on any guidance he would spew forth would likely deliver beaucoup losses. If he put his own money where his mouth is, he is likely poorer now than the week prior. Too bad for him. Obviously, he is just simply full of nonsense.
Thank you. My "past gains" were real (converted to cash), and my "current losses" are paper (not losses until I sell). And even most of that is still positive. It has been a long uphill ride for many years. A few weeks (or months) of correction is of consequence to only the weakest of investors.
Hello fuzzy! The tone of your message sounds like your still smarting from having your stock price predictions shown to be B.S. earlier this year.
And, since when do I owe you anything, including an explanation of Cerner's short-term stock price performance? I thought it was you that owed me something since you lost our bet.
But, being the nice guy that I am, here is a clue to the answer that you seek. Study CERN news and the CERN stock price charts from April - October of 2003. Therein lies your clue.
1. Buy Low & Sell High = Make lots of money and Be Happy!
2. Buy High & Sell Low = Dohhhhhhhhh!
Since CERN is relatively low right now, it would appear you are recommending strategy #2.
A year ago, fuzzymathematician issued another one of his pessimistic assessments of Cerner stock, saying "It's not going any higher." We entered into a wager about the relative performance of Cerner stock versus the Dow. As of April 30th, our bet is over.
In a reply last week to one of my posts almost a year ago (it doesn't show up in the message board unless you select '1 year') fuzzy had this to say: "Hey Tongo, I'm here to officially eat crow. Cerner has outperformed the DOW significantly over the period we established the bet on. Congrats to Cerner longs who've held on since Apr '14." Fuzzy, thanks for the proactive concession.
So, how close was it? Not very; Cerner is up 40% for the past 12 months, and the DOW is up 7.6%. Cerner is up 32.4% over the DOW. Early in our wager, fuzzy said he could not wait to feast on some good KC BBQ when he wins the bet. I hope that now I may have this feast, how about it fuzzy?
From drpills, we'll see if I get any satisfaction. Here was his comment from last July: "he/she (fuzzy) seems a lot more in tune with the business than you." Pills, care to change your assessment of me?
Fuzzy, thank you. Cerner is up 40% for the past 12 months, and the DOW is up 7.60%. Cerner is up 32.4% over the DOW.
How may I collect on some good Kansas City BBQ?