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kctongo 9 posts  |  Last Activity: Nov 4, 2014 2:21 PM Member since: Jul 13, 2007
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  • Fuzzy Mathematician and I have a friendly wager on the relative performance of CERN and the Dow Industrial Average from April 30, 2014 to April 30, 2015. We are 1/2 of the way through our 12 month period (picked non-arbitrarily; quarterly reports are ubiquitous), so let us see where we stand as of October 31st, 2014.

    DOW 30 Industrials: UP 4.88%
    CERN: UP 23.47%

    Difference: CERN is up 18.59% over the DOW for the 6 months since April 30th.

    Of course, it's not over until the fat lady sings, but I am liking my prospects for winning this bet. In my analysis of fuzzymathematician's predictions of the past, I don't think I have very much to worry about. Using his sentiment on CERN's future performance as a contrarian play would have reaped great returns over the past several years.

    He has been noticeably quiet the past few months. Perhaps that is just another payoff of this bet.

  • I continued to armchair quarterback Fuzzymathematician's past predictions for Cerner stock performance in order to determine what credibility that he should be given. Previous score: Reality - 1 : Fuzzy - 0.

    On the morning of June 28th, 2012, Fuzzy made the following prediction for CERN: "Upside has been played out. Market saturation. Loss of clients to other vendors." The stock opened at $38.59 at the time of that post.

    Well, how did things turn out? Well, the stock immediately popped after that, hitting $41.85 just 5 days later. It then trended down for the rest of the year, bottoming out at $33.82 on October 25th, before beginning a long consistent upward trend to the low 60's in February of 2014.

    So, I would score this as follows:

    Short term: 0
    Medium term: 1
    Long term: A Big Zero.

    Awarding one possible point for each fuzzy prediction, I would score this one as;

    Fuzzy: 1/3 Reality: 2/3

    Total score so far: Fuzzy: 1/3 Reality 1 2/3

  • Reply to

    Fuzzy Assessment

    by kctongo Sep 4, 2014 11:47 AM
    kctongo kctongo Sep 15, 2014 9:56 AM Flag

    Accuracy is paramount. Thank you.

    You are correct, past performance is no guarantee of future results. However, the past is prologue. For the past 11 years, CERN has returned on average 34.17% annually to its investors. That is simply phenomenal and represents a tremendous achievement! Over that same time, short sellers and other nay-sayers have been consistently taken to the cleaners. Consistently.

    Could it change? Sure! Will it? Perhaps. But those over the years who have made such warnings have proven to be consistently wrong. Some day....

    If the focus is only on CERN's EHR business, (especially domestically), then I can see why negativity may be the sage course. But, I don't think the domestic EHR business will be driving CERN's growth in the future.

  • Reply to

    Fuzzy Assessment

    by kctongo Sep 4, 2014 11:47 AM
    kctongo kctongo Sep 12, 2014 9:20 AM Flag

    You're funny. Didn't you realize that CERN split AGAIN in July of 2013? Do you KNOW how stock splits work? That price of $78.14 on 3/16/12 is adjusted to $39.07 today after that July/2013 stock split.

    Are you man enough to admit it when you are wrong? Examining your posts over the past several years, you are so anxious to call others out when you feel they made a mistake. You make them all the time, I've been calling them out. Have you once admitted error? No. Think about it dude. Are you the person you want others to be?

  • Reply to

    Fuzzy Assessment

    by kctongo Sep 4, 2014 11:47 AM
    kctongo kctongo Sep 10, 2014 9:23 AM Flag

    CERN was at almost $80 a share? Do you mean before it split, in which case your point is meaningless? Or, are your numbers faulty, AGAIN? CERN's all time high is $63.07. And being close to $60 now (just 5% away from the high), what's your point?

    PLEASE, if you are going to quote numbers, get them right. You look very foolish when you don't. Like you did in 2011 (above).

  • I thought I would review fuzzymathematician's past guidance on CERN to see what kind of credence I should give him. In a post he made on 3/16/11, when CERN was at $101.07 (2 stock splits ago), fuzzy declared that CERN hitting $125 "ain't happening in the next year." On May 19th, 2011, just a little more than 2 months after that post, CERN's high for the day was $125.91. CERN continued to climb after that, and hit a high a year later of $78.14 on 3/16/12, $156.28 adjusting for the split that occurred in June of 2011.

    I would call that a miss. A big miss.

    First Round Results: Reality: 1 - Fuzzy: 0

  • Reply to

    'Fast Money' Recap: Critical Day Ahead

    by stacyaukes Mar 13, 2011 6:16 PM
    kctongo kctongo Sep 4, 2014 11:39 AM Flag

    I thought I would review fuzzymathematician's past guidance on CERN to see what kind of credence I should give him. In this post from 3/16/11, when CERN was at $101.07 (2 stock splits ago), fuzzy declared that CERN hitting $125 "ain't happening in the next year." On May 19th, 2011, just a little more than 2 months after his post, CERN's high for the day was $125.91. CERN continued to climb after that, and hit a high a year later of $78.14 on 3/16/12, $156.28 adjusting for the split that occurred in June of 2011.

    I would call that a miss. A big miss.

    First Round Results: Reality: 1 - Fuzzy: 0

  • kctongo kctongo Sep 3, 2014 10:34 AM Flag

    Fuzzy, Boy, am I glad you are NOT my financial advisor. You're batting about 0.000 so far this year.

  • Fuzzy Mathematician and I have a friendly wager on the relative performance of CERN and the Dow Industrial Average from April 30, 2014 to April 30, 2015. We are 1/4 of the way through our 12 month period (picked non-arbitrarily; quarterly reports are ubiquitous), so let us see where we stand:

    DOW 30 Industrials: DOWN 0.05%
    CERN: UP 7.62%

    Difference: CERN is up 7.67% over the DOW for the 3 months since April 30th.

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