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iRobot Corporation Message Board

kctongo 2 posts  |  Last Activity: Nov 4, 2014 2:21 PM Member since: Jul 13, 2007
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  • I continued to armchair quarterback Fuzzymathematician's past predictions for Cerner stock performance in order to determine what credibility that he should be given. Previous score: Reality - 1 : Fuzzy - 0.

    On the morning of June 28th, 2012, Fuzzy made the following prediction for CERN: "Upside has been played out. Market saturation. Loss of clients to other vendors." The stock opened at $38.59 at the time of that post.

    Well, how did things turn out? Well, the stock immediately popped after that, hitting $41.85 just 5 days later. It then trended down for the rest of the year, bottoming out at $33.82 on October 25th, before beginning a long consistent upward trend to the low 60's in February of 2014.

    So, I would score this as follows:

    Short term: 0
    Medium term: 1
    Long term: A Big Zero.

    Awarding one possible point for each fuzzy prediction, I would score this one as;

    Fuzzy: 1/3 Reality: 2/3

    Total score so far: Fuzzy: 1/3 Reality 1 2/3

  • Fuzzy Mathematician and I have a friendly wager on the relative performance of CERN and the Dow Industrial Average from April 30, 2014 to April 30, 2015. We are 1/2 of the way through our 12 month period (picked non-arbitrarily; quarterly reports are ubiquitous), so let us see where we stand as of October 31st, 2014.

    DOW 30 Industrials: UP 4.88%
    CERN: UP 23.47%

    Difference: CERN is up 18.59% over the DOW for the 6 months since April 30th.

    Of course, it's not over until the fat lady sings, but I am liking my prospects for winning this bet. In my analysis of fuzzymathematician's predictions of the past, I don't think I have very much to worry about. Using his sentiment on CERN's future performance as a contrarian play would have reaped great returns over the past several years.

    He has been noticeably quiet the past few months. Perhaps that is just another payoff of this bet.

IRBT
34.81-0.13(-0.37%)Dec 26 4:00 PMEST

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