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Zalicus Inc. Message Board

kdalglish14 143 posts  |  Last Activity: Feb 20, 2015 7:39 AM Member since: May 29, 2008
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  • Reply to

    Head & Shoulders Pattern

    by leavenworthdude Feb 20, 2015 1:11 AM
    kdalglish14 kdalglish14 Feb 20, 2015 7:39 AM Flag

    A head and shoulders pattern, as i understand it, is a setup for shorts not longs. Once it forms the second shoulder, it is followed by a big drop. see investopedia:
    We had here an inverse head and shoulders with the left shoulder in late August, the head in October (the drop to $2) and then the right shoulder in November before we shot up in December. I am no expert in TA, but I remember discussing this pattern back in December before we ran. I think you do not want a Head and Shoulders unless you're short. Do we have one? I don't know. If so, we should easily run up past $5 with this right shoulder, but if the peak of this next run is less than the peak of the "head", then according to investopedia, we could very well see a head and shoulders pattern and the subsequent drop. For me, I will be buying on all pull backs moving forward. anyone else want to chime in?

  • Reply to

    advice please

    by go_wings383 Feb 19, 2015 2:08 PM
    kdalglish14 kdalglish14 Feb 19, 2015 10:45 PM Flag

    Yes, benzodiazepines are sedatives and amnestics. And they have synergistic effects on depressing respiratory drive when given with narcotics. Your points about waking up during the procedure are well founded. As I said, the GI docs are just guessing how much medicine you need to sedate you. Most of the time it works out okay....

  • Reply to

    advice please

    by go_wings383 Feb 19, 2015 2:08 PM
    kdalglish14 kdalglish14 Feb 19, 2015 5:50 PM Flag

    i'm a doc though not a GI doc. nonetheless, i understand the dynamics and statistics of both procedures. i'm an anesthesiologist and have been involved in deep sedation sometimes required for colonoscopy. when you get a colonoscopy there is usually only the GI doc and one or two nurses. there is a "standard" dose of usually two medicines that are given to everyone; midazolam or versed and fentanyl. Midazolam is a benzodiazepine in the same class as valium and fentanyl is a very potent narcotic. Now mind you, there is almost never an airway expert in the room during this procedure, despite the fact that drugs are being given which alter the dynamics of breathing and respiratory mechanics. If the patient is not "asleep" enough, the GI doc will tell the nurse to give more. as you can guess, it is not uncommon that too much sedation is given and an airway crisis ensues leading to a code being called and an anesthesiologist rushing to the scene to revive a dying patient. This doesn't happen too often, but I bet it happened once a month at the last hospital I worked at. Most of the time, things work out just fine, but I assure you the drugs you get during colonoscopy are not benign.

    No question in my mind that cologuard every three years will catch virtually all colon cancers. it's a done deal. i turn 50 on sunday and i am pooping into the cup.

  • Reply to

    UCLA Med Cen ----OUCH!!!!!!

    by vctr_leone Feb 19, 2015 10:17 AM
    kdalglish14 kdalglish14 Feb 19, 2015 5:38 PM Flag

    ahhhh. no idea.

  • kdalglish14 kdalglish14 Feb 19, 2015 5:27 PM Flag

    so you think that Cologuard, despite much better sensitivity and that it actually includes a FIT test in it, and was approved overwhelmingly by adcom and then by FDA, and received CMS reimbursement WAY above what even most bulls expected (mind you this is the group that sets healthcare standards for medicare which is a large target market for colon cancer prevention) and is very likely to receive A or B from USPTF which will mandate private insurance coverage, and that it is easier to use than FIT and way easier and more patient friendly and less expensive both in cost and dollars lost in the marketplace from people off work for colonoscopy, and despite its significantly higher compliance rate - despite all of this, you do not think it will take over the FIT market at the least? Oh and did I mention the stellar management team that continually underpromises and overdelivers? I know where I'm putting my money. and this quarters sales are really not significant. We should start seeing real numbers in the third quarter of this year; anything before that is just gravy. It was the same logic with PCYC just one year ago from doubters....

  • kdalglish14 kdalglish14 Feb 19, 2015 7:12 AM Flag

    hmmmm, well by your logic then, there is no argument for PCYC' stock price, or pretty much any other fledgling biotech. PCYC is currently valued at almost $13 billion, with 2014 product revenues of $292 million. This is just $150 million more than EXAS and their market cap is more than 4X. I understand this is diagnostic and PCYC is drugs, but the point is the same. I'll make it easy for you: you are paying for future revenue potential which looks outstanding.

  • Reply to

    Shares Outstanding

    by travelingfam4 Feb 18, 2015 7:29 AM
    kdalglish14 kdalglish14 Feb 18, 2015 9:53 AM Flag

    Thanks stayloose. I'll have a look at final filing. My numbers were based off the preliminary filing which should still have added up. Again thanks.

  • Reply to

    Shares Outstanding

    by travelingfam4 Feb 18, 2015 7:29 AM
    kdalglish14 kdalglish14 Feb 18, 2015 7:49 AM Flag

    Hi traveling. My calculations based on the company's SEC filings has our shares outstanding at 105.8 million. This would give us a MC of about $465 million - for what it's worth. And since I think you have me on ignore, maybe one of the other intelligent posters could confirm this and post for traveling.... :)

  • kdalglish14 kdalglish14 Feb 17, 2015 2:19 PM Flag

    they need some results first but as i have been saying, i think this would be a fantastic addition to PCYC's arsenal. and PCYC knows about these guys.

  • Reply to

    cup and handle

    by thesarksays Feb 14, 2015 6:51 PM
    kdalglish14 kdalglish14 Feb 17, 2015 7:26 AM Flag

    any good news at cc this week erases your short term bear chart.... it is oversold here and has support at $25. news my friends and we go back to highs....

  • Reply to

    Offering price of $3.75

    by travelingfam4 Feb 16, 2015 2:26 PM
    kdalglish14 kdalglish14 Feb 17, 2015 7:22 AM Flag

    the most obvious reason for a $3.75 per share price for the secondary is that was what they were advised the market would bear for the size of the offering. although i did expect this, i was surprised by the size of the offering. at this price it seems obvious that the secondary will be oversubscribed and we will hear about the additional 15% soon - which will be another plug for the stock and add an additional $10 million or so to the coffers. So why go with such a large offering? I have full confidence this was discussed for hours by the company management and no doubt Milano persuaded the team. This puts them in a position of strength as others have said here. There is no financial need now to partner. And importantly, it funds operations long past the next few rounds of results which, despite my confidence, means they are funded regardless of trial result outcomes. Smart management. And they are really operating on many fronts. It is not common for a company to have so much going on at one time. With PCYC it was one drug in just a few trials to start. EXAS is another of my stocks and they have one diagnostic tool that they used for one indication. Look at the companies you know and you will see this is pretty rare to have four different drugs in one class (TLR's) beginning trials in many different disease modalities simultaneously and adding another completely independent platform (GSO) on to that. It is really a massive undertaking. Now the company is funded for that and they really need to lay out their goals and check them off one by one. Underpromise and overdeliver. It's all on Milano now.

  • Reply to

    Waldenstroms trial

    by travelingfam4 Feb 15, 2015 9:28 AM
    kdalglish14 kdalglish14 Feb 16, 2015 7:19 AM Flag

    Imbruvica is actually a poor treatment for Waldenströms. It's just the best there is right now. 8400 should easily improve outcomes verus Imbruvica (and I'm a huge believer in Imbruvica and PCYC)

  • Reply to

    hi 🙋 everyone things are looking good

    by vulturefeathers Feb 13, 2015 6:16 PM
    kdalglish14 kdalglish14 Feb 14, 2015 12:46 PM Flag

    good point about our cash position mgm.

  • Reply to

    hi 🙋 everyone things are looking good

    by vulturefeathers Feb 13, 2015 6:16 PM
    kdalglish14 kdalglish14 Feb 14, 2015 8:59 AM Flag

    $5 would give us a market cap of around $427 million if my math is correct, which is still below the recent high of $472 million...... definitely doable. (it's easier for me to think in terms of market cap after a secondary....)

  • kdalglish14 kdalglish14 Feb 13, 2015 9:43 AM Flag

    don't see any connection. and getting partnerships would be a reason NOT to offer a secondary as there would be cash coming from partner....

  • Reply to

    Disgusted & Disappointed

    by biospeculator2014 Feb 13, 2015 8:53 AM
    kdalglish14 kdalglish14 Feb 13, 2015 9:42 AM Flag

    I share your disappointment bio. but in my opinion, if there is fault or blame, it lies at the feet of management, not the investment banks. the bankers will advise for sure, but the pricing decision is solely that of management. how is it possible that this offering, one year on is at a lower price than the last one with new management and advances in all platforms? doesn't make sense to me. in any case, i will continue to add at these prices.

  • kdalglish14 kdalglish14 Feb 13, 2015 8:53 AM Flag

    i agree. i am really surprised by the offering price. can't understand why they did not push for a higher price. but it is about trusting in the management and the science.

  • kdalglish14 by kdalglish14 Feb 13, 2015 8:22 AM Flag

    if it really is priced at $3.75 i can't see how it won't be oversubscribed which is a good thing. on the other hand i sure wish i could have gotten my hands on some at $3.75....

  • kdalglish14 kdalglish14 Feb 13, 2015 8:01 AM Flag

    earnings whispers has it scheduled for 2/19

  • Reply to

    looks 105 million shares outstanding..

    by jk4763 Feb 13, 2015 7:17 AM
    kdalglish14 kdalglish14 Feb 13, 2015 7:57 AM Flag

    still waiting on the official release jk. i agree that it doesn't make much sense to me if it is priced below $4. I am still awaiting the official release....

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