Did anybody read what briefing.com said:
"9:15AM Check Point Sftwr (CHKP) 39.91: Banc of America Securities cuts price target to $45 from $75; says that based on industry contacts and recent earnings reports, it believes that security spending will be flat at best through 2001; cuts FY01 estimate to $0.24 from $0.33 and FY02 to $1.45 from $1.69."
FY01 means "full year 2001" doesn't it? What are they talking about? They mean BOA cut this Q's estimate to 0.24, right? CHKP has already made 0.32 this year.
I don't have much confidence in this "estimate" if they can't even get their press releases right!
something to your analysis. Well done! A good move and on higher than avg. volume. Short-term MACD has turned positive and parabolic SAR confirms a positive trend. If RDWR reports good numbers I hope to see a nice jump!
It seems that RDWR will make this Q's numbers. I was looking on the board and noticed this. Click on the link below and scroll down to "Reports available for purchase from brokers". Look for a report called "RDWR: Reiterates Guidance, Potential Positive Catalyst Ahead" dated 6/14/01. I haven't bought this report, but I would guess that the title tells me all I need to know. BUY, HOLD, GET RICH!
No news is good news. If this company doesn't warn in the next couple weeks it should easily rally in anticipation of a good quarter.
It would be amazing if they met nubmers this Q. CHKP warned on revenues. CMVT warned. Alcatel warned. RDWR is a young company and they have the ability to buck the trend for a little while but I hope the trend in Europe changes. All this being said even if RDWR meets the 0.11 estimate this stock should rally soundly. BUY, HOLD, GET RICH!
That's right, I'm still here. In fact, I picked up a few more shares a couple of weeks ago. It's seems like my average buyin price just keeps getting lower and lower while the news just keeps getting better and better.
Has anyone else noticed that once again RDWR has NOT warned. They never have. The point is that they will at least meet expectations which are 0.12/share. That would make earnings for the last 4 quarters = 0.46/share. Giving a P/E=39 and a PEG=39/50=0.78 making the stock theoretically undervalued.
It should be noted, however, that this all hinges on the assumption that RDWR will not warn in the next month. For a clue about how earnings will look I will watch CHKP. Europe is just now beginning to soften and this could make for a bumpy quarter or 2 but the American economy is already beginning to recover and it will snap back just as quickly as it fell apart. BUY, HOLD, GET RICH!
This is all I've found on it. Go to this link and hit Ctrl+F on your keyboard, type in radware and hit Enter. This will take you to it quicker. It doesn't say that they are the next CSCO. It just says they are second to CSCO. But there may be a more complete report that I haven't seen.
Well, I've been right so far about the competitive landscape. Why don't we just see if I'm right about getting rich?
It's interesting that you say -"RDWR will survive. However, It won't make the long term holder rich at all."
You seem to forget the largest part of the equation. It is not how far RDWR moves up in the next 5 years that is the important part. The important part is that which I can control -how many shares I have. If I had 10,000 shares at an average of $25, for instance, it would only need to get to $100 for me to be a millionaire (before taxes of course). It depends on what your definition of "rich" is. But most people agree that millionaires are not middle class.
Well, at least it means that the stock should move up eventually. As far as it being illegal -well, you've heard the phrase "you can't fight city hall" right?
Yup. Sounds like a typical play from that lot. Let's see. Why would someone who thinks a company did well downgrade the stock? Anyone think Cowen wants to accumulate at a lower cost?
in the first Q. That looks solid to me. It means they already have ~20% of what they expect to make next quarter for revenue from the first Q.
I don't really understand the downgrade. Management said they were comfortable with average estimates. Which means 0.14 EPS. Sounds good to me.
I can have high revenues too -if I'm selling dollar bills for 50 cents a piece.
Investors aren't as stupid as they used to be. There will never be another AMZN. You got to MAKE MONEY and everyone here knows it!
FFIV will continue to lose money because they will have to continue to discount their products just to keep from losing what little market share they have left. Let's face it FFIV is soon going to disappear and we all know who the gorilla of this market will be -RDWR.
BUY, HOLD, GET RICH!
Actually R&D was $1.8M in the 4th Q alone. Which is 3 times as much as the year before. Look at the 4th Q statement here.
As for inventories -they were asked that question on the conference call after releasing the numbers and management claims that they wanted to increase inventories as demand inccreased. Whether this is true or not will be reflected in the next statement. I will be looking for clues as to the demand side of the equation by looking at CHKP's numbers -due out today I believe. RDWR's inventory has me concerned as well but so far this is all I have to go on.
I'm sorry to hear that your average is so high, but if you don't need the money for the next 5 years my opinion is you shouldn't sell. Remember RDWR has NOT warned this Q or any other. There are almost no tech companies who have met expectations but RDWR has so far.
Think about it this way. RDWR is expected to increase earnings at an average of 55% per year over the next 5 years.
Last year=0.34 EPS
Now lets say that it trades at a PE of 30(this is conservative the current PE=40).
If you are confident in the company long term then you should be buying more now so that you can profit earlier. I have moved my average buyin price from 32 to 25 by "averaging down". But this is a matter of personal opinion and situation.
Another convincing list of facts is found below in a post I made about a month and a half ago.
If you are still not convinced or if you can't sleep at night because of this investment then you should sell. No investment is worth losing sleep over.
Don't speak so cruelly of the dead. I'm sure he's thrown himself out a window by now.
Or maybe he still shorting. Good -he can keep covering too. You can't fight the fed. Not for long!
In my opinion the overall market has not seen a bottom yet. Those of you remember that I said that the market will get quiet and then we will know that we have reached a bottom. That hasn't happened yet. The nasdaq keeps trying to rebound quickly -that's not going to happen. Many have probably heard that this recovery will be "U" shaped from the analysts and I tend to agree.
Another thing that has been said is that in this "new world" the market will remain volatile. This is something I disagree with. I believe that the market volatility is a result of the bull market madness that has taken stocks of companies that don't make any money and inflated them. When this volatility ends we will know we have reached the bottom. -Market indexes are NOT supposed to move 2%/day in my opinion. I maintain that this is a sign of an un healthy market. This is why I waited to buy more RDWR. I did think that the Nas would reach 1800 but I don't know if it's over yet. Many people think we must reach 1650 before we base and create a bottom. This may indeed be true -I don't know. But I do know that it is not yet time to be a buyer. -even in a stock as good as RDWR. Fighting the market is like treading water no company can do it long. You want evidence? Look at CHKP. They are a spectacular company but P/E mulitiples are being compressed everywhere and theirs will come down too. This is one of the things that I didn't think would happen, but I was wrong. In this environment people will not pay 70 times past earnings for a stock -the risk to reward is no longer favorable enough.
At the same time there are companies like ARBA and AMZN which haven't proven they can make money yet. But they have very expensive stocks -STILL. How do you even value a company that has a negative book value?
So, here is my shoping list of things that will indicate a market bottom:
1. Many companies will have their P/E multiples reduced. -It's happening now with biotechs and network security companies.
2. Companies that do not make money will have their stocks selling at lower prices then companies that do. For instance JCDA, which makes money and has no debt trades at a far lower value than ARBA, CMRC, etc. These inequities will be resolved.
3. At least one very large internet company will go bankrupt. I believe it will be AMZN and maybe also YHOO.
4. People will stop talking about the stock market around the water cooler. No one you know will be interested in watching CNBC.
5. The market will get deadly quiet. Market volume will be low. Indexes will move much slower than now. Everyone who has held all the way down will be too paralyzed to sell and everyone who has been waiting to buy won't be able to do it because it will seem too risky. Short sellers will lose interest as everyone who would sell (and short) already has.
6. Stocks will move mostly horizontally until AFTER earnings. You won't see people getting into a stock before earnings thinking that they will cause a jump -because no one will be optimistic about earnings.
7. Major periodicals will have front page articles about the end of the internet and stock market.
In my opinion, many if not all of these will be signs that we are at the bottom. Anyone buying before the market treads water is taking a risk. The overall downward trend for the Nasdaq is still in place and before we move up we will move horizontally. Anyway, good luck to all and remember wait until there's blood in the streets and then...
BUY, HOLD, GET RICH!
Please read my post again. I said RDWR will NOT fall below book value. I also said I disagree with the 1 analyst who downgraded us.
think I will hold here. Actually I have been adding cash to my account in order to continue buying.
I must disagree with the analysts opinions of RDWR. Although, I am not shocked that people think they will warn. Everyone has warned EXCEPT RADWARE!
Even if RDWR did warn the current stock price could be justified if they expect 0.44 this year (5 cents lower than the current estimate) because this would be 30% growth over last year and the P/E is about 30 now. Giving a PEG ratio of 1. So, there is little danger of the price falling too far based on fundamentals.
HOWEVER, if there is a market meltdown RDWR's stock could fall. I still see little possiblity of falling below book value ~8.00.
All of these limit the potential downside -which is why the smarter shorts here have covered. In addition to all this I must agree with someone else's post here regarding the credibility of the analyst. Their website (http://www.kardan.com/) is still under construction. In addition, they say they are "Kardan Capital Investments has therefore lowered its short-term �Buy� recommendation for RADWare to long-term �Hold�." But when you look at the list of top institiutional holders of the stock you see that some people have put their money where their mouth is -http://biz.yahoo.com/hd/r/rdwr.html. Let's see do I believe Kardan or Dean Witter.
No, I think I will wait for actual data. Someone else's interpretation of what will happen is not good enough. If it was then I would listen to those on the message boards most do about as well as the average analyst anyway. Now, if Dean Witter downgrades that would be something else they have bet $15M on this. Until then I will wait. I won't be buying until the market settles but I'll be ready to average down when it does.
BUY, HOLD, GET RICH! -despite what some would have you believe.
Can I trouble you for a translation?
I want to know how someone can say that a company that made 0.12 last Q will not make 0.10 this Q. They should be able to have some interest growth on the $136M in cash at least.
Here are 50 undeniable, indisputable facts about Radware that would make my grandma cash in her CDs to buy some.
1. RDWR has beat estimates every quarter since going public.
2. Analysts predict RDWR will grow earnings at an average of 55% per year over the next 5 years.
3. RDWR has no debt.
4. RDWR has $136M in cash.
5. RDWR has a book value of $8.31/share.
6. RDWR has a partnership with Inktomi
7. RDWR has a partnership with Network Appliance.
8. RDWR has a partnership with Compaq.
9. RDWR has a partnership with Lucent.
10. RDWR has a partnership with Comverse.
11. Comverse has a partnership with AT&T.
12. RDWR has a partnership with Akamai.
13. Akamai has a deal with Microsoft.
14. RDWR�s firewalls are OPSEC certified for Checkpoint VPN.
15. RDWR gained marketshare last year.
16. RDWR's competitors lost marketshare last year.
17. RDWR management predicts that they will continue to gain marketshare over the coming year.
18. RDWR has grown earnings an average of 32% quarter over quarter during the past year.
19. RDWR has grown revenues an average of 26% quarter over quarter during the past year.
20. RDWR has grown revenues an average of 30% quarter over quarter over the life of the company (3 yrs).
21. RDWR's earnings last quarter were $2.1M or $0.12/share.
22. RDWR did NOT lower its guidance for the coming year.
23. RDWR's closest competitor (FFIV) DID lower their guidance for the coming year.
24. RDWR's current price reflects a PEG (price-to-earnings growth ratio) of less than 1.
25. Analysts predict RDWR will grow earnings 34% in 2001.
26. RDWR is using the same type of "channel" strategy for sales and distribution of their products as Checkpoint.
27. RDWR has received more awards for their products than all of their competitors combined.
28. The Internet Traffic Management market is expected to grow 245% into a $14.2B market by 2004 (according to Morgan Stanley Dean Witter Internet Research).
29. For the year 2000 RDWR made 47% of its sales in non-North American markets which are expected to grow at a faster rate.
30. RDWR has proven that they can make money with their business model.
31. RDWR's management has successfully started and managed a number of other companies in the past.
32. RDWR's earnings last year were $6.3M or $0.35/share.
33. RDWR has established relationships in Asia where it will take competitors many years to follow suit.
34. Analysts expect RDWR to grow earnings over the next 5 years at a faster rate than Cisco, Checkpoint, Microsoft, Lucent, and F5 Networks to name only a few.
35. RDWR has more than 1000 customers.
36. RDWR gained 200 customers last quarter.
37. RDWR is recommended as a strong buy by 3 brokers.
38. RDWR is recommended as a moderate buy by 3 brokers.
39. No brokers covering RDWR recommend anything less than a moderate buy.
40. Morgan Stanley Dean Witter owns 1,388,746 shares of RDWR.
41. RDWR is 48% owned by insiders.
42. Institutions own 64% of the float of RDWR.
43. Net institutional buying in the prior quarter was 2.08M shares, increasing institutional ownership by 28.4%.
44. RDWR�s stock price is at a 52 week low.
45. RDWR�s revenues for the most recent quarter were 145% higher year over year.
46. RDWR�s earnings for the most recent quarter were 187% higher year over year.
47. Assuming the rate of earnings growth expected by analysts (55%) and the same P/E as today $10,000 invested in RDWR today will be worth $89,466 in 5 years.
48. Assuming HALF the rate of earnings growth expected by analysts (27.5%) and the same P/E as today $10,000 invested in RDWR today will be worth $33,693 in 5 years.
49. RDWR often sees customers return to buy more of their products.
50. A share of RDWR costs less than a pair of movie tickets where I live.
BUY, HOLD, GET RICH!