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keebon 263 posts  |  Last Activity: 14 hours ago Member since: Apr 21, 1999
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  • Reply to

    New high for Golar

    by keebon Apr 15, 2014 7:50 PM

    I don't deny glog's performance, I envy it. (although you know what they say about past performance.) I sold out at 16.04 and 17.40 but there were upgrades and new ships/charters after that. It's still my opinion that it's over priced. I am suspicious long term of the relationship between glog and the BG Group. BG is calling the shots and GLOG will get no better... or worse... than BG will allow. so as I said, you get the safety and security of a strong parent and GLOG will not have to worry about getting charters. Same with Teekay LNG to some extent, but I don't think the dividend growth will be there. Personally, my criteria do not allow me to have a low yield stock as a core holding in my portfolio.

  • Reply to

    New high for Golar

    by keebon Apr 15, 2014 7:50 PM

    sarge,
    Also liking NMM. Keeping mine with a plan to accumulate. IMO there has to be a better future for dry bulk. NMM will see $20 before long, I hope.
    KMP had a nice report today. 26% increase in DCF and a 6% dividend increase yoy so pretty good coverage ratio. My take is Kinder Morgan is very large and will model itself after the big one, EPD, which is the recognized premium stock in the MLP world. Smaller dividend increases and increasing coverage ratio is the outlook for Kinder Morgan.

    As usual, what I lack in facts I make up for with opinions.

  • Reply to

    New high for Golar

    by keebon Apr 15, 2014 7:50 PM

    rbg,
    I like TGP for income and a trade. Good pipeline of dropdowns from TK. Steady but smaller dividend increases which is the norm for a TK subsidiary. Buy below at or below $40, collect the 6+ percent dividend and wait for an 8-10 percent gain is the way I would try to play it.

    GLOG has a very strong parental relationship with BG Group, one of the dominant players in everything LNG. I think it overpriced based on low yield but nothing wrong with a widows and orphans stock with a price that will move higher with the global bull market in LNG. I owned it with a low cost basis and sold out at an average price of about $16.

    I think GLNG beats both on the yield outlook and anticipated price appreciation. Very bullish but one has to live on the edge with JF.

    GMLP also gets my vote. It will go higher later this year in anticipation of revenue coming in from a second FSRU going on line in Jordan. GMLP will continue with dividend and price appreciation associated with dropdowns from GLNG (floating regas or liquefaction units or LNG carriers).

  • Reply to

    New high for Golar

    by keebon Apr 15, 2014 7:50 PM
    keebon keebon Apr 16, 2014 11:01 AM Flag

    orto,
    I was not clear. I was thinking of the triple in 2011. I was lucky enough to build a significant postion in mid-Dec through the first week of January and it tripled by the end of the year when Golar was in the top 5 percentage gainers for the year on some major index. Since GLNG has been in the low 30's for much of this year I think it has a good chance for at least a double in 2014. The $80 target is a bit tongue-in-cheek since it was a price I mistakenly thought had been a price target of some analyst. I do think it will hit $80 at some point but doing that this year might be a bit too optimistic. 2015 for sure, tho.

  • Reply to

    New high for Golar

    by keebon Apr 15, 2014 7:50 PM
    keebon keebon Apr 15, 2014 11:38 PM Flag

    stagg,
    The first LNG export from the US won't start until 2016. However, there will be a steady stream of new export terminals going on line starting in H2 2014 and beyond (projects for completion in 2017 and 2018 are also in the pipeline). One thing that has hurt LNG shipping is delays and cost overruns in projects currently under construction, particularly in Australia. The announcement from Exxon of the early start to the next big project was most welcome.

  • Reply to

    New high for Golar

    by keebon Apr 15, 2014 7:50 PM
    keebon keebon Apr 15, 2014 8:22 PM Flag

    mark,
    I sticking with my $80 price target for Golar by the end of the year. It has done it before. It could again. Part of the recent surge could be due to an announcement by Exxon that their large LNG export terminal in Papua New Guinea will go on line in mid 2014. It was originally planned for late 2014. That was to be the first of several large export facilities going on line 2014 - 2016.

  • Golar regains the top spot in my portfolio. Up 5.3% today. Haven't seen any news. If you are not in LNG shipping you're making a big mistake. Still, with Golar (GLNG) up big today, the partnership and c-corp (GMLP) was down. That's nuts. If you aren't buying GMLP you haven't done your homework.

  • keebon keebon Apr 15, 2014 7:45 PM Flag

    vinny,
    I agree, the US and Europe seem to have forgotten the cold war. Putin is dead serious about restoring the glory of mother Russia. He will grab every inch every way he can and hold on to it with both fists and teeth clenched. Right now, there is no match for him among the leaders of the western nations. Money grubbers world wide will party on, unaware of the long term consequences.

  • Reply to

    High quality problem

    by fuzzier_joe Apr 11, 2014 11:48 AM
    keebon keebon Apr 15, 2014 7:32 PM Flag

    breault,
    You may not be a baby boomer who grew up during the cold war, but you can take it from me that Putin is dead serious about restoring the former Soviet Union, to the extent that he can. This will may not "get settled" in your lifetime. Russian culture is one of deprivation and they will not give up an inch of any gain, whatever that may be. As far as Ukraine, it needs gas anyway it can get it and LNG is the only relatively quick way for that to happen. If you are a Golar shareholder you should know how export and import capacity is being developed around the world. The LNG midstream connections like Golar will do well for years to come.

    If you are a short, well, you might want to look for a new stock.

  • keebon keebon Apr 14, 2014 4:24 PM Flag

    bud,
    Last year, Michael Webber at Wells was skeptical about the dry bulk recovery. His expectation was that dry bulk would not be on firm footing until maybe the end of 2014. I don't know if he has revised his thinking lately.

    Strange thing today was NMM, the dry bulk partnership, was up 3.20% today while the parent, NM was down 2.3%. I hope that means NMM (which I own) was able to get improved charters for some of its vessels that had charters expiring during Q1. Navios's thing all along--as well as a number of other drybulkers--has been to grow the fleet by acquiring vessels during downturns... but eventually you have to start seeing profits grow as well.

  • Someone at Zach's likes SDRL. The takeaways... SDRL overall has a premium fleet. Transocean and Diamond do not. Perhaps even more important... offshore drilling is cyclical. This jibes with the predictable pattern of global oil supply/demand.

    Thanks for the cons and pros of SDRL, LINE, etc. Forces me to refresh my DD, or at least my guesswork.

  • Reply to

    DOUBLE THE PROFIT OR LOSS...!

    by staggman99 Apr 13, 2014 11:24 PM
    keebon keebon Apr 14, 2014 1:04 PM Flag

    stagg,
    You don't like LINE and that is understandable if your history with it was prior to the Berry acquisition. As a former Berry shareholder I see a new Linn which just swallowed a good company with lots of valuable assets and it looks very promising. It will take some time to sort through all they bought and decide what to keep, what to develop, etc. but they seem well into it so we shall see if management can execute the consolidation of these assets. Oil production should increase significantly over time. I wish I understood the implications of their hedging strategies but it sees to me they have some less favorable oil hedges to work through over the next couple of years but I might be off base on that. In any case, I think the yield is safe and will increase although maybe not much if any for the next couple of years.

  • Reply to

    DOUBLE THE PROFIT OR LOSS...!

    by staggman99 Apr 13, 2014 11:24 PM
    keebon keebon Apr 14, 2014 12:21 PM Flag

    rbg,
    O ye of little faith. SDRL will do well in the 2nd half. (I hope.)

    CVI doing nicely. Now a buck or two above my cost basis. Of course, that does not figure in my first buy at $63 a share. Took my loss on that... mark warned me but I thought I knew better.

    stagg,
    I didn't see me criticizing awilco, although I'm sticking with SDRL, SDLP and good ol' NATDF.

  • keebon by keebon Apr 13, 2014 3:26 PM Flag

    If you were to pick a utility stock these days, what would it be?

  • Reply to

    Back Again

    by fsbsgillie Apr 9, 2014 6:46 PM
    keebon keebon Apr 13, 2014 11:05 AM Flag

    gillie,
    don't forget the posts you make responding to spammers. why bother with that?

  • Reply to

    natdf

    by keebon Apr 9, 2014 7:20 PM
    keebon keebon Apr 11, 2014 4:33 PM Flag

    turbo,
    I haven't figured out how to trade out of NATDF. With small volume you can see a "good" sale price at low volume for NATDF but place an order to sell at even a lower price and it stays open while the price of NADL goes up. Maybe I should buy NADL shares first if the price is low, like today, and wait it out for a higher NATDF price. Either way it's more hassle than one likes to put up with.

  • Reply to

    SDRL DOWNGRADED

    by staggman99 Apr 11, 2014 8:13 AM
    keebon keebon Apr 11, 2014 3:50 PM Flag

    mark,
    Almost like see one Barrons article you've seen them all. If your goal is to build core positions, I will not be overly concerned. Started a position in RSO today and may add if it goes lower.

  • Reply to

    SDRL UPDATE

    by staggman99 Apr 11, 2014 10:56 AM
    keebon keebon Apr 11, 2014 11:59 AM Flag

    stagg,
    Keep the faith. SDRL is in it for the long term. I stuck with Golar when it was down and it is now headed towards what I believe will be substantially higher highs before the end of the year. Fredriksen is a risk taker and a "doer" and that makes it more fun. Never a dull moment... for long.

    Golar's move may not last, but I am no longer minimizing the impact of the gas crisis in the Ukraine. Golar is well-placed to get a floating LNG regasification and storage vessel (FSRU) up and running at one of the Ukraine's Black Sea ports and in far less time and lower cost that a land-based import terminal. Golar has two such units which has just gone into service for one of the Persian Gulf states, Kuwait, I think, and another to be going into service quite soon for Jordan. (when I refer to Golar I am referring to both the MLP and the parent.)

  • Reply to

    SDRL DOWNGRADED

    by staggman99 Apr 11, 2014 8:13 AM
    keebon keebon Apr 11, 2014 10:09 AM Flag

    edk, If I was buying seadrill today I would consider the partnership (SDLP) before the parent (SDRL). Dividend growth rate will be higher.

  • Reply to

    OT: Market cracking?

    by marklibera Apr 10, 2014 3:11 PM
    keebon keebon Apr 11, 2014 10:06 AM Flag

    jk,
    Rather than preach about no politics, etc. I will simply say you are misguided and put you on ignore for awhile. Not that you should care.
    Just sayin'

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