your comment on bad news is pretty much the same as my risk reduction/flight to safety comments. All in, it could be good for US stocks and other stuff.
FWIW, it seems to me that risk-reduction is taking hold. I don't sense changes in the underlying economic situation. I imagine that could progress to a flight to safety, whatever safety happens to be for any particular person. But, it usually means US assets as the safest investments around. Gold too, I guess. I don't do gold but correction or not I do buy US energy. The 3 P's... production, pipes and processing.
I'll take it as it comes. The majority of my stocks pay dividends in August and I reinvest 100% of my dividends, so if we must have a blood letting, let it begin now.
Bot ETE today (54.84). A faith-in-the-future move as the 2015 outlook for MLPs and energy in general is positive based on the updated forecasts of Wells analysts. Been wanting to buy ETE and it trades ex-div today, plus an almost 2% discount.
RDS is into all the key areas but I have avoided it because I don't know how the RDS dividends are taxed. Withholding and reclaimed on your tax return?
Positive comments on NMM by Wells. "inching" closer to distribution increase. Raised DCF for 2015 from 1.82 to 1.98. 3 cents est addition to earnings by the new boats. lowers fleet breakeven, already low. No change in rating.... outperform.
I missed by boat on that one, so to speak.
I think your theory is pretty close... about Commerce being out of touch. I think it's bad policy. The most positive thing about the US economy in the years ahead is an abundance of domestically produced oil and gas. Why would any dingledorf bureaucrat try to stick his or her nose I that?
I'm confused about the potential impact of sanctions on the Russians. We can guess at JF's opinion of sanctions based on his tankers carrying Iranian oil in the past so I suspect he thinks his companies are going to be able to capitalize on the situation. Is he right? and if he is, do I want to be part of that? And what's the risk? Could be a great opportunity to cash in, but hard to figure at this point. And where do the major oil companies fit in? They have stakes in the development of these resources and they have technology that is needed. Some like BP are conceding future negative effects on earnings. For now, I have moved the oil majors off my buy list and onto the watch list. The only oil production that's moving the needle these days is from shale and nonconventional sources in the US and Canada. I may buy NADL again and rebuild my SDRL position, but I'm not there right now. Will consider adding SDLP and GMLP because the assets they would acquire must come with contracted revenue and be accretive to earnings.
I'm in on SWW, in a small way. I've looked at it several times and always passed. Now, seems more people want to get into containers... NMM, CPLP, for example. SWW is solid. Good yield and future increases seem to be coming. The chance to get the dividend pushed me off the fence. Thanks for the suggestion.
I may buy NMM back if it dips back below $19... wasn't paying attention this time. I see the move away from dry bulk but they are going to have a lot of revenue to replace after 2015 and most of their assets available for charter are drybulk and there's more building up in the spot and short term markets every day. I will be watching to see what Michael Webber, the Wells analyst says after today's earnings report.
I hope I haven't over-reacted but I don't have the feeling I can sleep on this decision. I still have two thirds of my SDRL position and we share the same opinions on the value of SDRL the enterprise and putting the debt in the proper light. But the Russian situation is a big unknown with Putin, a virtual dictator and Cold War holdover, in power. I don't think he will back down. The whole Russian culture for centuries has been stoic deprivation of the people and I think Putin is committed to restoring the "greatness" of Mother Russia. I think it is also sinking in to the EU leaders that they have to curb Putin with an economic war now rather than the potential for a return of the conflicts we saw during the former Cold War.
As if I know what I'm doing but I sold what was to be a building position in SFL and a third of my SDRL. I may regret it but I'm not comfortable with the news from the EU that deep sea and Artic drilling with the Russians will be sanctioned, subject to some kind of project by project review. It wll be interesting to see how Seadrill is affected, given they are foreign domiciled, NYSE listed, doing business with US and EU companies. If they are still able to deal with Rosneft on the sale of an NADL interest that is one thing, but NADL has an important contract with Exxon on a Russian deal for which there is an optional extension coming up. Seems like that could be affected. NADL also has a new, top-of-the-line but uncontracted drillship to be delivered in the 1st half of 2015. The last one was bought by SFL and leased back to NADL, providing new cash flow to each and a dividend increase at SDRL. If it were just about maintaining the dividend at Seadrill that would be one thing, but It is also about paying for several newbuildings to be delivered over the next two years.
I put some of the money back into ETP and EPB, ex-div.
Article released on the 28th.... EU sanctions may affect financing of the Russian's Yamal LNG export terminal. Vessels in the DLNG fleet were to serve this facility. One just delivered and dropped down to DLNG and another 4 newbuildings. I have no idea how significant this may be to DLNG.
Key executive in the JF empire will change emphasis, concentrating on Golar and Seadrill. JF seems to want his best man in these areas. Says, perhaps, he is not 100% satisfied with the way things are going and wants to make sure they reach their full potential in these top maritime areas.
works for me.
The terms are the terms... I can't explain those. But I think WLKP has potential in that niche. I had a good experience with PDH. I bought it three times last Jan-Feb at $11.11 to $11.24 and loved the yield. I thought the buyout was unfortunate but I got a nice payday for my trouble. I still hope to get a few cents out of a class action suit but that may be a long shot. PDH served only its unitholders. As for not always being correct.,, you are way ahead of me. Keep sharing thoughts and ideas. They are helpful
I bought more SDLP today. I don't see the down side..
If SDRL has dilution, SDLP has none. in fact, SDLP becomes an even more important avenue for SDRL to access new financing. The West Jupiter drillship is one dropdowm mentioned in SA, and which I mentioned a month ago. A drill ship contracted to Total off the Nigerian coast. Perhaps the announcement will come around earnings. Another thing about SDLP, it only gets contracted dropdowns and at this time, none of their existing assets are exposed to any future deals with the Reds.
Let me know what I'm missing.
Thanks. I have come to think that for me, a spectator with a view from the centerfield bleachers, the best thing to do is wait for a track record to develop. As it is, the plant ain't even built. PDH was a high flyer for awhile, I believe, until it wasn't. I did OK buying it after it wasn't. WLK does present a pretty convincing story for future growth and the stock is doing very well so it seems like another way to plug into the oil and gas boom in the US. I am not represented in any chemical manufacturers except the refiners, and CVI (fertilizer). Perhaps DuPont and Monsanto and their competitors deserve attention.
Thanks for the words of caution. But with gas production growing and emphasis on wet gas vs. dry gas, won't there be more ethane on the market? Westlake looks like a vertically integrated operations that is mostly about polyethylene so my quick take is that this facility will produce feedstock for their manufacturing operations. They also acquired a European plastics manufacturer with six plants so they must be planning to supply those plants with cheaper ethane or ethylene from the US. But as you say, that doesn't guarantee a good deal for the other unitholders.