Another item of interest with broader implications... a floating FSRU (floating storage and regasification unit) just went online in Lithuania. It is operated by Hoegh (HMLP). This facility will be able to supply 90% of the natural gas used by Lithuania, Estonia and Latvia. Until now, all of their natural gas has come from Russia. Take that Vladimir!
Golar LNG up today on announcement of a deal with Cameroon on a floating liquefied natural gas (FLNG) vessel to export LNG from smaller, "stranded" natural gas fields. This is interesting stuff if you are into that sort of thing. Production from NG deposits that are borderline for development because of their smaller size and lack of midstream infrastructure. The vessel is an older LNG carrier now being converted to liquefy natural gas and either load it onto another LNG carrier or carry to gas to market on the same vessel. The entities extracting the gas also use the liquefied petroleum gases, primarily ethane, propane, and butane, for their resident population. Golar has invested heavily in this FLNG concept and this would be the first on the African coast. The projection is LNG for export by early 2017 so this gives some further visibility on how this will play out for Golar. Their plan would offer this capability as a package to include the ships to deliver the LNG and possibly a share of the marketing as well. GLNG is quite oversold, IMO.
Interesting to start seeing how the offshore sector is going to plow its way through the next couple of years. I have not looked at any of the recent presentations of the major offshore companies. Might be a good idea to gat a better overall perspective. Also wondering how this will play out for AWLCF. Will they be able to keep their two old rigs active? Will they be able to buy a rig headed for scrap, refurbish it and get a new contract with someone looking to rent a cheap rig?
Thanks, ed. You are too kind. I will never consider myself a sharp investor, but I am glad just to be a dull knife in the drawer. I thought I saw something about oil and gas a decade ago but now the future is not clear, or it seems to be resetting based on how to play more abundant energy supplies. I read the December Wells MLP report again today. They referred to the USA as the new swing producer in determining oil prices. My take is there are now two swing producers... the USA and Saudi Arabia. They are allies at a time when both need strong friendships to counter an aggressive Russia, Iran and their cohorts by maintaining low to moderate oil prices.. the most effective weapon against those two. This will be a long haul.
I'm staying optimistic the SDLP yield will bring it back. The December Wells MLP report keeps it in the "secure" distribution group. The next distribution announcement won't come until late January so who knows for sure. There should be an increase.
Ditto on SFL. Revenue is mostly visible a couple of years out and the FRO restructuring of a couple years ago has the current deal with SFL not resetting until 2016 so the cash sweeps should again be significant for SFL in 2015, given the crude tanker near term outlook.
As usual, what I lack in facts I make up for with opinions.
I'm not complaining, really. Since 2002, when I started keeping more detailed records, I have had only two years when I didn't get a total return over 10%. That was 2008 (really bad) and 2014 (bad enough). Most of that is due to oil and gas so if you live by the sword you die by the sword. I am going to build up some cash in 2015. I have stopped dividend reinvestment in all but one account and any reinvesting will be slowly. I have a deferred comp account rollling over in January which will increase our IRA balances by about a third. Nothing like a little money in the bank to relieve stress.
KNOP has elected to be a C-corp for US tax purposes so the distributions are taxed as dividend income and reported on a 1099, not a K-1.
Shuttle tankers and related assets like floating storage and offloading (FSO) and floating production, storage and offloading (FPSO) vessels are a stable part of the offshore sector. Boring but solid. I recommend it, but I also suggest you also consider TOO which has be a core holding for me since 2009. Same sector. MLP. C-corp. Strong parent (TK). Solid distribution. It was insanely sold off with other oil stocks over the last couple of weeks. It might have a more conservative dividend policy than KNOP, however, KMOP doesn't have much of a track record. TOO just announced two FPSO acquisitions that will further strengthen the distribution. TOO had major moves to the upside last week but even with that I think it may have a bigger upside than KNOP. The only reason I did not buy KNOP is that I already had TOO.
I am generally optimistic, but being down 6.83% YTD, (after being up 23+% at the end of August) puts me in a peas poor mood. So many bad decision... putting profits into ARP, MEMP and LNCO, not selling a single share of GLNG when it went over $70, or NAO when it nearly hit $20. I did sell SDRL, but then put the $$ into SDLP. I have been in detention in the School of Hard Knocks the last 3 months. Live and learn.
News of a potential dropdown from GLOG to GLOP. More on the way. Excellent timing. Future distribution increases.
"GasLog said it has been delivered the fully owned LNG carrier GasLog Saratoga, from Samsung Heavy industries. The vessel has secured a charter to a first-class counter-party for her maiden voyage and will proceed accordingly, GasLog said in a statement.
"The vessel is a 155,000 cubic meter tri-fuel Diesel Electric (TFDE) LNG carrier that sets new standards for efficient performance and environmental protection. The vessel is classified to the ABS ENVIRO+ notation,
signifying the highest level of environmental protection and energy conservation. Furthermore, the vessel is
equipped with a new type of cargo compressor that will reduce the release of greenhouse gasses and offer
enhanced cargo and heel management.
GasLog has one LNG carrier newbuilding due for delivery in 2015, four in 2016 and four in 2017."
I want to make one point, then I will shut up... Back in July you were touting VLCCF. Dry bulk looked healthier and VLCCF was flying at over $14 a share. I pointed out that they no longer had any tankers and that their fleet was now 100% dry bulk and heavily weighted in capesize vessels with expired charters and operating in the spot market. Today, the bottom has (again) fallen out of the dry bulk market and VLCCF, with all those capes in the spot market, is in deep sheet, with a price around $4.50. Context and more color (not just the recent performance) would be helpful in a case like that. Same with AWLCF, FRO, etc.
I think they have to consider to overall cost which includes exploration, drilling, well completion, processing, transportation. All of these are significant because they determine the price of the crude at the point of sale. Then there are technical factors such as vertical vs. horizontal drilling. If you can drill and complete several horizontal wells at a single drill pad in the Bakken you will have a distinct advantage over someone who has to drill vertical only to access the formation.
I take posts about being overweight on MLPs as also being favorable to gas and oil midstream, which should be comparable to midstream marine as well (gas first, then oil). Also, being underweight Asian LNG producers would not be the same for LNG midstream. One has to look at most all energy midstream as being overweight for some time.
As far as energy projects being suspended, etc., a cut in capex are the logical first step because a lot of money can be saved by reducing the number of drilling rigs. Another thing to keep in mind is that the E&P companies typically have a bunch of proven drilled wells waiting for completion., i.e., injecting the frac sand, etc. to bring the well into production. Most of these guys, I would think, will hunker down, even to the point of pumping only what they need to maintain the cash flow for operations, debt payments.... just trying to understand.
Wells' shipping news had more recent rates for shipping. I did not realize VLCC rates had spiked so dramatically. Meanwhile, drybulk rates seem to be in the toilet.
"VLCC spot rates rose by 19.7% wk/wk to $79,682/day (from $66,545/day) as rates on the Gulf-Japan route increased to put rates near multi-year highs. Suezmax and Aframax spot rates fell by 15% and 1.2% wk/wk to $37,573/day (from $44,185/day) and $29,534/day (from $29,891/day), respectively. We note that rates remain well above breakeven levels and we expect spot rates to remain firm throughout the winter."
"Drybulk: Capesize spot rates declined by 58.5% to $5,742/day (from $13,851/day) as rates remained under
pressure due to a distinct lack of cargoes. There was little activity from the majors in the East on the Western
Australia to China route. Panamax and Supramax spot rates also declined by 9.7% and 3.3% wk/wk to
$8,100/day (from $8,974) and $10,000/day (from 10,340/day), respectively, amid a long spot tonnage list
and fairly weak activity in the Pacific basin."
interesting piece on Putin today. He is no technician or economist. He is a political person trying to restore Russia to its former power and glory. Definitely overmatched, but his ace in the hole is the disposition of the average Russian to endure hardship and deprivation. Vlad will run his country into the ground to achieve his political ends.
Thanks, bob. It's not listed on the distribution history on the APL website. Seems odd.
Excellent day, so far. I like the Linn Energy news about asset sales/trades and reaction. The market seems to recognize that companies have alternatives to cutting dividends. Also looks like they are nearing completion of their restructing and merging after the Berry acquisition. They may have dodged a bullet by selling their unwanted assets while the price of oil was still high. Other companies with similar news could produce a similar reaction, maybe. Bad sign in the future will be any energy company selling assets solely to prop up the balance sheet.