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Navios Maritime Holdings Inc. Message Board

keebon 291 posts  |  Last Activity: Oct 17, 2014 6:21 PM Member since: Apr 21, 1999
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  • Reply to

    OT: SDLP

    by marklibera Oct 17, 2014 9:21 AM
    keebon keebon Oct 17, 2014 6:21 PM Flag

    mark,
    So does that mean the Goldman has acquired or intends to acquire some ownership of SDLP units? That would tend to explain the big gain, I suppose. Let me be the first to welcome Goldman Asset Management into the SDLP partnership..

  • Reply to

    THE BULLS AND BEARS...!

    by staggman99 Oct 16, 2014 12:49 PM
    keebon keebon Oct 17, 2014 5:57 PM Flag

    stagg,
    I don't disagree with any word of your last post. You have obviously been around the block more than a few times and your investing approach is what you have settled into because, I assume, it works for you. My point is to present the other side, not to criticize your choices, but as a caution to less experienced investors. That said, the posters on this board are seasoned investors (I among the least of these) and a young guy just building a portfolio and developing his approach could do a lot worse than reading the opinions they get on the SFL mb.

  • Reply to

    OT: SDLP

    by marklibera Oct 17, 2014 9:21 AM
    keebon keebon Oct 17, 2014 4:17 PM Flag

    mark,
    A mutual self-congratulations on SDLP today! Up 12%. Expecting an announcement of a new dropdown from SDRL and the SDLP dividend increase we have been waiting for. I hope it is the West Saturn which is just about to go online under contract with Total off the coast of West Africa. There is also the West Jupiter which has a contract with Exxon in the same area at a higher dayrate but for only two years. I am hoping JF does not shortchange SDLP and I don't think he will. He needs to keep SDLP the premium MLP in offshore drilling to provide that income stream to SDRL but, perhaps even more important, he needs a healthy SDLP so he can continue to go to the markets to finance future drilling assets yet to be delivered.

  • Reply to

    WOW!!!

    by andrewulsaker Oct 17, 2014 2:19 PM
    keebon keebon Oct 17, 2014 3:58 PM Flag

    Andrew,
    I have rarely seen a company announce a dividend increase AFTER the record date. To me that says they are willing to reward existing shareholders and less concerned about getting a bounce from a dividend declaration.

  • Reply to

    ALL GREEN AND VERY SWEET...!

    by staggman99 Oct 17, 2014 10:19 AM
    keebon keebon Oct 17, 2014 3:23 PM Flag

    sarge,
    Not to get too analytical about it, but I consider Mark and a few others on this board, myself included, to be pessimistic optimists. Basically bullish by nature but always looking for the pitfalls and the ownside. Often that comes off as being negative. When I post favorably about a stock, I appreciate negative, thoughtful feedback. As an accomplished know-it-all, I know that I really don't know it all and I want feedback to see what I missed.

  • Reply to

    ALL GREEN AND VERY SWEET...!

    by staggman99 Oct 17, 2014 10:19 AM
    keebon keebon Oct 17, 2014 3:17 PM Flag

    mark,
    One scenario is that the EU, Russia and some others are in or about to be in recession so that the past uncertainties about the vulnerability of the PIGS and some other EU members, a Chinese slowdown, etc back to the surface. That was not good for the market but QE does indeed seem to be more likely than it was a few months ago.

  • Reply to

    THE BULLS AND BEARS...!

    by staggman99 Oct 16, 2014 12:49 PM
    keebon keebon Oct 17, 2014 12:48 PM Flag

    stagg,
    With NADL you're gambling. With AWLCF you may be swimming downstream in the Niagara River.

  • Reply to

    OT: SDLP

    by marklibera Oct 17, 2014 9:21 AM
    keebon keebon Oct 17, 2014 12:33 PM Flag

    mark,
    I'm confused on WPZ pricing today. the merger with ACMP is based on a ratio of .85 units of WPZ for each ACMP unit so things seem out of whack. Forget trying to understand such a transaction, but the revised dividend guidance positive and that should work out well in the end. WPZ and ACMP are holding a joint Q3 earnings presentation on the 30th and I expect a positive reaction.

  • Reply to

    OT: SDLP

    by marklibera Oct 17, 2014 9:21 AM
    keebon keebon Oct 17, 2014 12:07 PM Flag

    mark,
    WPZ seems too low with everything else up today so I reduced TCAP and added WPZ @ 50.32

  • Reply to

    lookin good?

    by andrewulsaker Oct 16, 2014 4:30 PM
    keebon keebon Oct 16, 2014 11:48 PM Flag

    NADL's Plan A was to rely on Rosneft to take 3 new UDW rigs to be delivered (one in Q4 2014 and two in H1 2017) and 2 or 3 with contracts expiring in 2015. If that deal is dead, and it now appears to be, I have heard of no Plan B. There is a glut of new floaters and the number of contracts is declining so they are screwed either way. They will have to be bailed out by SDRL since NADL has little cash or capacity to get new financing on the open market. Another secondary would be out of the question. I could be totally off base, but that's the way it looks to me. Bottom line... putting my investment dollars in the hands of Vlad Putin is not something I am going to do.

  • Reply to

    lookin good?

    by andrewulsaker Oct 16, 2014 4:30 PM
    keebon keebon Oct 16, 2014 7:11 PM Flag

    stagg,
    I will offer a word of.caution when it comes to your favorable comments on FRO, SDRL, NADL and especially AWLCF. These are high risk stocks with come with no assurance they will make it through the night, so to speak.
    FRO is winding down its fleet, more or less, and JF is probably more interested in the future of Frontline 2012 than he is in making substantial future commitments to FRO. Without a significant turn in crude tanker rates, FRO may follow its mostly older tanker fleet to the scrapyard.
    AWLCF has two old, refurbished rigs from which its derives its entire revenue stream. This revenue has not been covering its high dividend for the last couple of quarters and that may not change. One of its rigs has a contract extension in place, but at a lower rate that will generate less revenue. The other has an expiration date in the not-too-distant future and with no extension, so far.That could come and other deals could happen but the fact remains that these rigs become less and less competitive as they are both more than 30 years old and fewer companies start by looking at the oldest rigs on the lot.
    NADL and its dividend depend heavily on the future of its deal with Rosneft. JF will have to come up with something fast. The talk is that Tor Olav wanted this Russian deal more than Big John. If he pulls the plug on the Russian deal NADL could take a big hit and cut its dividend. The deadline for acting is Nov 8 or 10 (something like that) and I personally would not touch it until after that time or, better yet, after earnings are reported late November.
    SDRL I would buy for no other reason than its future is closely linked with JF's personal fame and fortune. If he says the dividend is good it must be so. If he pulls out of the NADL/Russian deal he can no doubt keep the ship afloat and it should continue to be offshore leader for years to come. That company needs a steady, experienced hand on the tiller and JF is just the guy you want.

  • Reply to

    THIS MAY BE A FALSE START...!

    by staggman99 Oct 16, 2014 1:02 PM
    keebon keebon Oct 16, 2014 4:27 PM Flag

    Palestone,
    Let's hear it for energy.... four stocks up 10% is better than getting a birdie on the last four holes of the back nine. Neither is something I would even dream of. The debate about the future price of oil or tea in China is just guesswork to me, but I do know my portfolio was up 4.8% today with 14 of 35 stocks up more than 5.5%. Nothing like a tiger in your tank. MEMP, ETE, TOO, LNCO and MAIN were my top performers. Still a long row to hoe before I get back to where I was the end of August.

  • keebon keebon Oct 16, 2014 12:23 PM Flag

    sarge,
    After investing my wife's recent pension to ira rollover, "I" now own 35 stocks. My top 10 is KMR, LNCO, GMLP, HTGC, SDLP, CPLP, GLNG, MEMP, ARCC, and TOO. Lots of good stuff out there at good prices in energy, even though many have gained yesterday and so far today. I would NOT buy any driller, onshore or offshore but am holding SDLP and SDRL.

  • keebon keebon Oct 16, 2014 11:57 AM Flag

    ed,
    I am a rank amateur and guess a lot. But as far as BDCs, maybe a glimmer or two.... low unemployment claims last week (US economy showing a little strength?) and banks are not reporting any upsurge in already low loans (good for other lenders like BDCs?)

  • Reply to

    line vs lnco vs vnr

    by mudrackers Oct 16, 2014 8:45 AM
    keebon keebon Oct 16, 2014 11:02 AM Flag

    will,
    My bias is also putting $$ to work right away to replace income lost with my wife's recent retirement. If I can get a secure 10% yield I'm going for it and will let the share prices do what they do.

  • Reply to

    line vs lnco vs vnr

    by mudrackers Oct 16, 2014 8:45 AM
    keebon keebon Oct 16, 2014 10:57 AM Flag

    And another item is CHK selling over $5 billion in Marcellus and Utica shale assets to Southwestern. CHK has debt issues it continues to address but that says to me that retrenching is in when it comes to managing exploration and production assets and expenditures... and maintaining dividends.

  • Reply to

    line vs lnco vs vnr

    by mudrackers Oct 16, 2014 8:45 AM
    keebon keebon Oct 16, 2014 10:53 AM Flag

    mud,
    If you want a solid Roth IRA stock that you can count on, you could do a lot worse than XOM or CVX at today's prices.

  • Reply to

    line vs lnco vs vnr

    by mudrackers Oct 16, 2014 8:45 AM
    keebon keebon Oct 16, 2014 10:22 AM Flag

    A couple of pieces of news on LNG may be helping... Hoegh has an FRSU going on line to import LNG into Egypt. You can participate in that with HMLP. And Woodside, in Austrailia, upped its forecasts related to LNG export. So while the enthusiasm for LNG sometimes gets overdone, the sector is for real and long term trend remains bullish.

  • Reply to

    line vs lnco vs vnr

    by mudrackers Oct 16, 2014 8:45 AM
    keebon keebon Oct 16, 2014 10:16 AM Flag

    I've stuck my foot in my mouth so many times I've gotten to almost like the taste of shoe polish, but oil and gas up in the early going so at least someone besides me is buying. The Bloomberg article (DH's link) speaks of the oilers being focused on lower but more efficient use of capex and maintaining dividends. I think that is the trend for now, so the dividends should keep prices afloat. Dow was down 1.3% yesterday and I was up 1.3%. Today (it is very early), the Dow is down .65% and my portfolio is up 1.2% and climbing. Knocking on wood real hard.

    LNG shipping up today. The golars (GLNG, GMLP) were lagging the group but now heading in the right direction. Could be a good entry point.?

  • Reply to

    Here we go again....

    by rbgambler99 Oct 15, 2014 9:47 AM
    keebon keebon Oct 16, 2014 9:58 AM Flag

    ed,
    I seem to be swimming against the tide of opinion on this board, but I am (or, I should say my wife's recent IRA rollover is) fully invested with BDCs, oil and gas midstream and upstream, and a couple of marine stocks as recent buys. These are at a 10+% yield with the expectation that the dividends will at worst remain flattish and at best increase modestly.

NM
5.14Oct 17 4:03 PMEDT

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