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American National Bankshares Inc. Message Board

keebon 351 posts  |  Last Activity: 2 hours 41 minutes ago Member since: Apr 21, 1999
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  • Reply to

    ARP suspends

    by bobdbeck 3 hours ago
    keebon keebon 2 hours 41 minutes ago Flag

    Stagg,
    It's energy upstream that's in trouble. Midstream has been doing well for a couple of months. That trend will continue as issues with dividends, financing, balance sheets are being addressed. The market knows this.

  • Reply to

    Q1 earnings

    by bottomfeeder_30120 May 5, 2016 11:51 AM
    keebon keebon 2 hours 44 minutes ago Flag

    GLOG hit on revenue and up nicely. Best LNG stock YTD. Up 50%

  • Reply to

    NRZ

    by bobdbeck May 5, 2016 10:59 AM

    My best today were ETP (up 8.77%) and WPZ (up 4.06%), both gains attributable to the growing expectation that the WMB acquisition by ETE will not be carried out. When that proposed acquisition was announces some time ago, I converted all my ETE stock to ETP and all my WMB to WPZ because it was ETP and WPZ that owned most of the assets of real value. A suggested way to play this is to maintain both core positions to hold for income and an additional amount to trade when the swings in oil create the opportunities.
    As if I really know.

  • Reply to

    WHAT IS UP THE MOST (???)...!

    by staggman99 May 4, 2016 10:12 AM

    STagg,
    I'm not an expert but seems to me that a high ROE ratio can mean not enough equity as a percent of overall capitalization...i.e., too much debt. Eventually that debt has to be repaid with interest or refinanced so I see FRO sort of burning the candle at both ends. If rates slide they could get burned.

  • Reply to

    WHAT IS UP THE MOST (???)...!

    by staggman99 May 4, 2016 10:12 AM

    DH,
    FWIW, since mid-December I have settled into an approach that combines income from trading and dividends. I have completed 4-5 trades per week during that time including closing some positions opened several months earlier. So far, 73 of 83 trades have been profitable, although some of the bad ones were doozies. Overall, I am starting to believe I am better at trading with a short term horizon than trying to buy and hold. I came within an inch of buying TCAP yesterday as a buy and hold and today they cut the dividend from $0.45 to $0.15. Dodged a bullet there. Also closed a trade on TRGP making about 6% over 9 trading days plus one quarterly dividend. Some profits are there and are to be taken while others can stay there on paper. Need some of both.

  • Reply to

    Trump

    by keebon May 4, 2016 2:03 PM
    keebon keebon May 4, 2016 9:40 PM Flag

    DH,
    You're from NY? Well, as we say in Minnesota, "There ya go then."

  • keebon by keebon May 4, 2016 2:03 PM Flag

    Shame on me for going political, but I have to chuckle about former world "leaders" like Vincente Fox of Mexico and the now-discredited Tony Blair of the UK speaking as representatives of the international version of the Stop Trump movement. Now that the GOP establishment has failed in this effort do the Foxes and Blairs of the world really think the average US citizen gives a hoot what they think?

  • Reply to

    WHAT IS UP THE MOST (???)...!

    by staggman99 May 4, 2016 10:12 AM
    keebon keebon May 4, 2016 12:14 PM Flag

    Stagg,
    I agree on you about cash position, unless you want to maintain a cash balance for trading purposes. Even so, some investors have been saying (like, forever) that we should not put any funds in energy...my opinion is, that if one simply dropped out of energy stocks one would have, first, missed some great value buys with one's revenue stream and second, also missed a nice rally in the past three months.

    That said, I recommended GLOP a year ago at the time of an offering and it is still down a little from its offering price, although up on total return since then. It's up nicely today (goes ex-div Friday (?)). I bought KMI today for a trade and may buy GLOG before the day is out. GLOG is the parent of GLOP and goes ex-div towards the end of the month. When an MLP goes up and the GP/parent goes down on the same day that's often a good time to sell/buy, respectively. I see GLOG as an alternative to DLNG, despite DLNG's lower debt load. DLNG's future depends on the Russkies and I don't trust them. GLOG is connected to Shell which is one of the LNG majors along with Chevron and Exxon.

  • Reply to

    ALDW

    by keebon Apr 27, 2016 12:48 PM
    keebon keebon Apr 30, 2016 9:03 AM Flag

    Ed,
    I agree on LYB. I doubled my normal position hoping to trade it away before ex-div. Now I will definitely hold it. Same thing happened before but some people never learn. I plan to stay out of refiners because the 1-2 year outlook doesn't look that great. I do like the way some of the MLPs have matured under the new oil price environment. They boomed along with E&P but now its easier to separate the goats from the sheep. I expect I will be allocate more funds to them. I sold off my BDCs too soon but still holding TCPC, TSLX, HTGC, and MAIN.

  • Reply to

    TRGP

    by palestone Apr 29, 2016 8:02 PM
    keebon keebon Apr 30, 2016 8:46 AM Flag

    Stagg,
    KMI is lower because its dividend was cut and they are laboring under a mountain of debt. Nevertheless, KMI has many buy recommendations because their huge cash flow will allow them to begin reducing their debt ratios, pay for expansion with internally generated funds, and eventually begin raising the dividend though not by a lot. EPD has one of the best managed MLPs with a yield over 6% and regular, modest distribution growth. It has many buy recommendations. TRGP resembles KMI but without the dividend cut and with a better balance sheet. It's dividend is now less suspect and it will continue to trend upward until the yield comes down to maybe 7% or so.

  • Reply to

    TRGP

    by palestone Apr 29, 2016 8:02 PM
    keebon keebon Apr 29, 2016 11:34 PM Flag

    palestone,
    Did trgp get an upgrade or was the earnings report just that good? I'll have to re-read it to see what I missed. I increased my position by 50% at $38 to get the dividend so I am a happy camper. I am not going to trade that away as I think it will go up until they yield goes down.

  • Reply to

    GLNG

    by dividendhunter Apr 29, 2016 9:44 AM
    keebon keebon Apr 29, 2016 11:31 PM Flag

    DH,
    GLNG used to be almost pure LNG carriers. They abandoned that path (unlike Gaslog and Dynagas) and put the bulk of their resources into the future of, first, vessels to regasify LNG at terminals FSRUs, and then to floating LNG production units (FLNGs). Bottom line, GLNG has been about the future for several years and it has never seemed to work out. They needed Schlumberger to provide the wherewithal and expertise for the upstream E&P end of these projects to develop LNG export from stranded gas producing areas. This cast doubt on the whole idea of forming a team to exploit these resources. GMLP is less affected because GLNG does have other projects that could be dropped down but those prospects have been diminished at least somewhat.

  • Reply to

    TRGP

    by palestone Apr 29, 2016 8:02 PM
    keebon keebon Apr 29, 2016 11:22 PM Flag

    Stagg,
    Aren't you forgetting the law of supply and demand when it comes to TRGP. And why would TRGP export interests be any different from KMI's or EPD's? Seems inconsistent to me. After all, EPD and KMI are #1 and #2 when it comes to energy export from the GOM.

  • Reply to

    MAYBE ITS TIME TO PLAY SOME WILDCARDS...!

    by staggman99 Apr 29, 2016 3:59 PM
    keebon keebon Apr 29, 2016 11:18 PM Flag

    Stagg,
    I understand the laws of energy supply and demand quite well. My mistake was letting it ride and not taking profits when I could. The working word is hubris.

  • Reply to

    2 lousy days for me

    by sarge198502 Apr 29, 2016 1:00 PM
    keebon keebon Apr 29, 2016 2:55 PM Flag

    Sarge,
    If misery loves company, you'll be "glad" to hear the LYB I bought on Monday for a trade is off 3% in each of the last two days. I think I "got you beat" on that one.

  • Reply to

    ALDW

    by keebon Apr 27, 2016 12:48 PM
    keebon keebon Apr 29, 2016 10:39 AM Flag

    Ed,
    Watching LYB? Bought on Monday or thereabouts. Wonderful timing. NOT! Must be due to the departure of the head of planning and transactions. He is very highly regarded. Too bad they didn't move his entire
    "young" family into the executive suite, including the dog. He could have spent more time with them there.

  • Reply to

    ALDW

    by keebon Apr 27, 2016 12:48 PM
    keebon keebon Apr 29, 2016 10:29 AM Flag

    Stagg,
    FWIW, I stayed away from AVACF because of the looming expansion of the global VLGC fleet and prospects for lower earnings and dividend in Q2.

    ETP is a good buy today. 12.3% yield. Goes ex-div May 4. 2016 will be a good year with several new projects being completed and contributing revenue.

  • Reply to

    GLNG

    by dividendhunter Apr 29, 2016 9:44 AM
    keebon keebon Apr 29, 2016 10:21 AM Flag

    I owned both for several years but not only own GMLP which has a high, solid yield. To the extent that GLNG projects succeed, dropdowns will allow result in asset and distribution growth at GMLP.
    ETP is still a buy today in the $34's. Pays a distribution of $1.06 and goes ex-div on May 4th.
    Targa (TRGP) went ex-div today and is still up nicely. I bought and recommended it early Monday when it dipped over 5%. (JK, take note)

  • Reply to

    DLNG

    by williamlebotschy Mar 31, 2016 10:13 AM
    keebon keebon Apr 28, 2016 1:25 PM Flag

    I don't own DLNG so I am obviously envious. I avoided DLNG because I didn't like the dependence on charters with the Russkies. That's two strikes against any stock, for me. However, if I did own some I would consider selling before it goes ex-div. For one thing, the run-up was something that happened after the charter announcements so the yield now is more in line with its peers. But that big backlog number is spread out over a lot of years and it wasn't enough, apparently, to get the to bump up the distribution. Maybe they will next quarter; in fact, that might be very likely. They do have a low-debt mentality which we know should be a big plus.

  • Reply to

    ALDW

    by keebon Apr 27, 2016 12:48 PM
    keebon keebon Apr 28, 2016 9:11 AM Flag

    Sarge,
    I once owned both CVI and CVRR. Then I owned CVI and not CVRR. Then came a CVI dividend cut. Then I bought CVRR back and not CVI. Today, I would prefer CVRR because I don't like CVI's interest in UAN. I would also prefer ALDW because of its facility placements (access to Permian Basin and western refinery) and perhaps WNR to CVRR. My impression is CVRR's placement of their refineries makes them more vulnerable to a narrow WTI/Brent spread which is likely to continue as long as the Saudis, Iran, Iraq, etc. keep pumping. NTI was my favorite because of it's crude supplies and market but don't own it now because of the confusion over the WNT buyout. (Or, maybe it's just me that's confused.) I need to read up on the current WNR/NTI situation. Ed's been following that, I think.

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