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Frontline Ltd. Message Board

keembodakine 281 posts  |  Last Activity: 13 hours ago Member since: Mar 2, 2012
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  • keembodakine keembodakine 13 hours ago Flag

    Actually, many of the tanker stocks, in spite of rates being very good are dropping in price rapidly. I think NAT has given up about ten percent or more recently, and it isn't as if their daily costs have skyrocketed with lower bunker costs and higher rates. This is just big money playing games. The stock market is not about value...it is about manipulation.

  • Reply to

    MS wants to make the Bible the states book

    by lakeed98 Jan 25, 2015 9:45 AM
    keembodakine keembodakine Jan 27, 2015 1:50 PM Flag

    Sorry Lake, but you have no idea what you are talking about. When you say I think that God came from nothing, you are wrong. In my mind, God didn't come...he has forever existed. That is why he said..."before heaven and earth were created..I am." You keep trying to put God in your own "time" conception Lake, and that just won't work.

  • keembodakine by keembodakine Jan 26, 2015 3:28 PM Flag

    Just wondering? Maybe a few more gallons of heating oil will be consumed on the east coast this week. Ya think?

  • Weren't those folks going to be big users? Looks like nada still.

  • keembodakine by keembodakine Jan 26, 2015 3:05 PM Flag

    Well, the oil business has certainly been a strange one over the last several months. I am just taking a stab that the dividend will be in the $.50 - $.60 range. Considering todays price, it would yield over 4 quarter average about 16% going forward at that rate. That is terrific. It won't be as high as last quarter's payout, but the big unknown to me is how much higher priced oil they had stored during the quarter or were hedged for. Other than that, I don't know anyone who curtailed their use of gas/diesel. I doubt demand has gone up, but I doubt it has gone down either, and it is probably mostly affected by weather. People tend to drive less when roads are icy and in cold weather. However, they use more heating oil. We will see soon.

  • Reply to

    MS wants to make the Bible the states book

    by lakeed98 Jan 25, 2015 9:45 AM
    keembodakine keembodakine Jan 25, 2015 8:25 PM Flag

    No...lake would prefer Darwin's books, as then only the strongest survive. Lake will have to cave in to the big dudes who clean his clock, because they can. He would like that though, as it would prove his point. Oops, we all came from nothing, because nothing plus nothing equals something in Lake's world.

  • Reply to

    Feels like something is wrong

    by bluhorseshuluvsnfi Jan 23, 2015 2:37 PM
    keembodakine keembodakine Jan 24, 2015 4:15 PM Flag

    I agree that UPS is not well loved, but neither is FEDEX. The USPS got terrible negative publicity from the far right, because it is a pseudo govt. entity. They complain it isn't profitable, but much of that is due to two things. They must deliver all mail, and unlike private deliverers, they must fully fund out fifty or eighty years the pension plan. This takes a huge chunk of their money. I use USPS priority in my business, as it is less expensive by far than either Fedex or UPS. Happy stocking.

  • Reply to

    Div cut is a good move

    by apu123 Dec 18, 2014 12:03 AM
    keembodakine keembodakine Jan 23, 2015 3:29 PM Flag

    doesn't look pretty

  • Reply to

    Feels like something is wrong

    by bluhorseshuluvsnfi Jan 23, 2015 2:37 PM
    keembodakine keembodakine Jan 23, 2015 3:26 PM Flag

    There is beginning to be a lot of negative sentiment in the market period. Today, UPS gave warning about earnings. Think how much UPS is saving in gasoline alone...and they are warning about earnings??? Something is a bit strange. UPS hasn't lowered prices at all, and I doubt with all the people doing Amazon that UPS orders are down, but yes...something is wrong.

  • keembodakine keembodakine Jan 23, 2015 12:36 PM Flag

    The main savings for the ship if in storage is bunker fuel savings. A small amount of that will be offset, as diesel generator sets will now be running 24/7 when anchored off port somewhere. There would probably only be a small amount of crew savings, as once anchored, there would be no additional OT or payments needed for docking./undocking duties. Sometimes, however, additional OT might be spent with crew doing MT that might have been needed but not done due to steaming or being in bad weather areas. Depending on where the ship is anchored, sometimes fees can accrue depending on country. If anchored where launch service is available, some crew contracts require owners to provide launch service to crew members if near safe harbor. There are a lot of variables, but as others pointed out, bunker savings should be the largest single item. If anchored in salt water for long periods, this allows barnacle growth to occur which will slow ship's speed when it is finally used. If possible, sometimes ships are anchored in brackish or fresh water as this prevents barnacle growth. Lots of variables.

  • keembodakine keembodakine Jan 22, 2015 3:55 PM Flag

    Mr rami,

    Nobody knows whether there will be a big pop to five or six dollars, but certainly, having earnings figures and charter results should give one a good idea of whether the stock is fairly valued, over valued, or undervalued.
    It is sort of hard to figure that even with the debt incurred by FRO over the last few years, with rates considerably higher than they were a year ago, that the company shouldn't be doing considerably better than they were a year ago. Personally, I would wait until after earnings, but it would seem rather strange to see charter rates lately and expect a fall in earnings to the company. Do you agree? What were the rates when FRO was trading at $50 several years ago? What were fuel costs then/now? What percentage of the fleet was offhire then/now? Since today's price is about 94% lower than when the stock traded at $50, are the rates today 94% lower? Is the tonnage owned by FRO and chartered 94% lower than then? Has there been a 94% increase in available tonnage today/then? Was $50/share back then way overpriced? As I recall that was only about 65% of the all time high. Is there a 94% greater chance of FRO going BK today/then? Perhaps you could enlighten us as to why you are shorting or at least answer a few of the questions posed.

  • keembodakine keembodakine Jan 22, 2015 3:42 PM Flag

    Mr. lake,
    At least try and be coherent in your posts. Your original posts said that Canadians were doing eminent domain, although for some reason you called it emit domain. Second, and oil company can't do eminent domain anyway....only a governmental entity can do that if there are eminent domain laws within that entity. Canadian oil companies can't do any eminent domain in either America or Canada...only a government entity with legal authority can do it. From your original post, it looked like you were complaining that eminent domain was being used in Canada to acquire Canadian land owned by American interests. Please try and be coherent in what you post.

  • keembodakine keembodakine Jan 22, 2015 2:04 PM Flag

    Not necessarily, but to your point. The Soviet Union collapsed, because Russia tried to subsidize all of it. A free market can be a very wicked thing. Monopoly laws were set up to protect the masses from single entities getting too much power and controlling markets totally. Saudi Arabia is a monopoly at the moment. Monopoly is a bad word to use really, because more than one entity in a group can essentially be a monopoly. Example...If 5 families owned all the world's land, those families together would be a monopoly, but they could make claims individually that they aren't a monopoly. There is no such thing as true capitalism, or it would end in a monopoly. Economic advantages are not necessarily temporary, unless you want to say that all things are temporary. Revolutions take place, because things aren't going well in a particular country. Those things can be caused by excessive capitalistic greed or sometimes just by sheer oppression. I am one who believes that the "love of money is the root of all evil." Money in that sense just means greed.

  • keembodakine keembodakine Jan 22, 2015 12:09 PM Flag

    Mr. lake,
    Your headline is misleading and untruthful. Land that Americans own in Canada is still Canadian land, if you want to say that countries can have borders and with in their borders is their own land and sovereignty. I agree at this time that the pipeline is not needed, but it may be more practical that transporting oil on rail cars. I am not sure it is economical at this point either, as prices have fallen so far on crude that many of the Canadian oil sands companies will go bust before long. That will end any oil coming out to be shipped in the pipeline within Canada. If Saudi's and the mideast keep dumping oil there won't be any oil sands companies left, and then the Saudi's can buy all the oil sands, become even a larger monopoly and dictate the price to the rest of the world.. They have already proven they can set the price to the rest of the world, so if they buy up all their competitors, it becomes even easier. True capitalism.

  • Reply to

    NASA: 2014 warmest year on record.

    by lakeed98 Jan 16, 2015 5:31 PM
    keembodakine keembodakine Jan 20, 2015 2:55 AM Flag

    Don't worry. Lake is so strange he tells you to "go to hell" and yet doesn't believe there is such a place.

  • keembodakine keembodakine Jan 19, 2015 3:54 PM Flag

    Mr. rails,
    ,"if NASA says 2014 was the warmest year on record then they are out right lying. There have been periods on earth when the average temperature exceeded 145 degrees."

    Please read what you wrote. NASA is talking about written times and on record. You are talking about times when scientists are guessing at temperatures, because there were no thermometers or eye witnesses to your claims. NASA is talking about recorded real temperatures and not speculated temperatures of thousands or millions of years ago. If and when temperatures on earth exceeded 145 degrees as you claim, there were no people or thermometers to record it. Nice try though, as I know you are a non believer in global warming just like Lake is a non believer of God. Both living in denial and not the river.

  • Reply to

    rogere

    by keembodakine Jan 15, 2015 3:30 PM
    keembodakine keembodakine Jan 16, 2015 3:08 PM Flag

    Suncor reported it was cutting 1000 jobs and 1 billion investment 2 days ago. If their break even was $25/bbl, don't you think they would be happy to keep drilling and pumping and doubling the price at $50? It ain't happening. Shell Canada just announced 3000 layoffs in Canadian oil sands stuff.

  • keembodakine keembodakine Jan 16, 2015 12:04 PM Flag

    Mr. islandboy,
    Export what? The price of oil has gotten so low that oil rigs are being laid up as fast as they can in the bakken oil sands thing. With Saudis keeping supply high, and American and Canadian companies not able to drill "cheap oil", there won't be a lot of extra North American produced oil to export. Besides, wouldn't it be smarter to use US oil in the US and curtail subsidizing the house of Saud?

  • Reply to

    rogere

    by keembodakine Jan 15, 2015 3:30 PM
    keembodakine keembodakine Jan 16, 2015 12:39 AM Flag

    Mr. Lake,
    I don't think you needed $100 oil in order for companies to make money. Most of the oil sands are profitable at $50-$60. That is half or close to half of the $100 oil which actually had gone to $130 at one time. Of course the world is better off with low cost energy, but sudden drops to half are not healthy. When you say there will be no recession coming, tell that to the tens of thousands of oil workers that are going to get worse than a recession. Then you can tell it to the restaurant owners and store owners where those workers shopped, and then you can watch those store owners start laying off and slow shopping. The lower cost of fuel is just going to go as bonuses to airline owners, but don't expect 50% air fare drops any time soon. The wealthy aren't affected by the lower cost, as they aren't going to drive their BMW's further, because the gas price is lower. The poor will benefit a little from the lower fuel costs, but they will just pay a little more on their credit card while they watch agribusiness raise food prices while they spend less on transportation. It is a big game, Mr. Lake. My driving is about a 1000 mi/mo. I use about 35 gal/mo to do it. If I save $1/gal on gas, I save a whopping $35/mo, Do you think that is going to make me want to make a big purchase, or eat out more often, or drive further? I won't consume anything more, and no additional people will be hired due to this oil drop. The pipeline will be built, because republicans hold the purse strings and both houses and enough dems will go along to insure their re election. Then, those construction jobs will dry up when finished. A couple dozen people will operate the pipeline, but there won't be enough companies to use it as the Saudi's will have bankrupted the American and Canadian ones, so there won't be any oil going through it, but you will still be paying at the pump. Enjoy.

  • Reply to

    rogere

    by keembodakine Jan 15, 2015 3:30 PM
    keembodakine keembodakine Jan 15, 2015 3:51 PM Flag

    I guess it is because they are free marketeers. What they don't realize is that monopolies, such as the Saudi's, can price oil at will and get all your market for "free." All they have to do is wait it out. Of course, the Chinese may buy a lot of it also, as they actually have money.

FRO
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