PER seems to be tracking oil prices now. Once the hedges are off, it will be totally at the mercy of oil price fluctuations.
Kel....................just observing, don't want to hold this
I'd like to see a number up in the $4.8 - 5.0 million area. Over $5.0 mil would be a stunner. These guys are very good on cost controls so EPS (loss) should improve if revs grow.
Kel.......a holder (of more than I should prudently have)
I am very surprised at their poor hedge position, at least as it was on June 30. Very risky with the current debt position. Often there are hedging requirements tied to debt covenants.
Look at ADES. Has been trying to straighten out their books for months. Really throws a wet blanket over a stock for a long time. Excellent opp for ARCP to cut the dividend if that is necessary. Used to hold this, just never liked the constant flow of transactions. Sold it months ago.
Not a current holder. Down over 20% due to accounting mis statements. I held / traded it in the past, but not in the past several months. Was always concerned about all the moving parts. They seemed to be doing another transaction every few weeks. How could anyone keep track of things the way they were doing multi million $ deals constantly.
Buy Campbell's (or Aldi) Chunky style soups. Already cooked. In a severe financial crisis you could eat it cold, right out of the can. Gold or silver wouldn't fill your stomach, just your pocket.............am kidding, but just a little.
Cash flow is like your paycheck. Comes in and goes out to pay expenses like well expenses, land evaluation, etc. That's the way the biz works. No need for a pile of cash on hand if they mngt knows how to manage cash flow. Their debt is very modest compared to many companies of comparable size.
One measure is debt / cash flow ratio. Debt is about 2 X annual CF. Many companies are in the 3-4 X area (getting aggressive). Over 4 X is getting very aggressive, especially when oil / natgas prices are falling.
That's when the earnings are released and the Conference Call follows. They will have to say something about Baker Street. Management's strategy going forward or whatever.
Positive action actually started yesterday when it went down less than most other production stocks.
Just doing a little research. Noted that TCAP is considered one of the better operators in the industry. But 56% over its June 30 NAV of $15.95? Stock now @ 24.92. This years average EPS estimate is $2.16, which is equal to the current dividend.
Anyone have any insights on TCAP that might explain this high premium based on projected future factors....
Tried to sort through the FCX report. It is complicated and lengthy. Is it possible some of FCX's adjustments were related to assigned values due to the acquisition of O&G properties? Also some discussion there regarding capitalized costs that were "out of line" and needed adjustment.
CRZO issued a preview of Q 3 results a few days ago and made no mention of asset value adjustments.
SFY..........Oil prices have fallen about 12% SINCE Sept. 30th. Quite a fall in less than one month, but the 9-30 pricing basis may not require an adjustment yet. For sure at year end though, at least for oil. Natgas might be OK as they had a very low valuation basis for 2013 of about $3.41 per MCF.
A good sign but what about the other $3 billion of debt? Nice earnings estimate for 2015, but will have to adjust for the addl shares.
Just ran a random list of 10 oil / natgas producers. All were down roughly 3 - 8% SFY was better than all on that list. Only down about 1.5%.
Many producers got downgrades today from the always late brokerage houses.
Did buy a small positio in UGAZ (3 X long natgas) @ 10.15. Hit new low today @ 10.02. Also holding SFY and AREX. Underwater on both.
SFY must be finding a bottom. Down about 1.37%. Ran a random sample list of 10 other oil / natgas drillers. Best of that list was down 2.9% and the worst was down 7.3%.