Probably lots of $$ being lost by those who "wrote" those hedges. Maybe why you see places like GS and others trying to talk energy prices in one direction or the other. Losing their #$%$.
In at 1.84 with NG @ 2.71. Will explode up one of these days. Hot weather, hurricane season coming, and then..............winter. Could be up to 3.50 in a week.
Just bought some UGAZ (long natgas X 3) @ $1.845 with natgas @ 2.71. Has to be near a bottom. UGAZ will be around 2 or 3 months from now, not so sure about SFY.
And the worst of it is that you have to watch the Bears play football.........holding CHK, SWN..
Kel in Green BAY....(:^)
Mik............nice call. Looks like about 27% of the distribution came from hedges, which end on 12-31-15.
Not holding any, but have to wonder if this opens the door for others like ARP (holding a little) to do the same. Probably a prudent move. Conserve cash in tough times.
Maybe what's left of Allergan will be grabbed by US big pharma or one of the big biotechs like GILD, CELG, etc.
Think of it this way. Probably 1/2 of the oil and natgas drillers in the US would go BK before SWN. As many of the numerous smaller drillers fell by the wayside (or slashed production), NG prices would climb and companies like SWN would be in great shape.
Want to see some ugly ones, just look at the likes of SD, HK, SFY, XCO (almost 100% natgas like SWN) and numerous others. These companies won't be getting bought out as they all carry HUGE debt loads. Who'd want their debt in this environment.
Kel..............holding SWN and CHK
Have you done the evaluation of those properties or has it been done by a professional? I do agree that natgas's path of least resistance seems to be higher. Let's tackle $3.00 before we make bold statements about the $4.00 level.
Kel..............not a SFY holder at this time
GILD...........I sold 1/3 of my position @ 119.95 on June 26. Used those funds to buy IP @ 48.49 the same day. IP down slightly. The GILD position was getting too big as part of my mix at the time.
My CELG buy at 116.63 on May 20th is working out well. I make trades and rarely have regrets whether I was right or wrong. I do look at them to see if I could have made better decisions. I think some of my poorer trades are the ones made in the last 5 minutes of the day on "gut" feelings.
Average estimate now at 19 cents with a range of .17 - .21. Ninety days ago the average estimate was 21 cents. Holding a small position at a loss (like almost everyone).
Part of the stock price is the current oil price. Another part is the expectations for FUTURE oil prices out to 2031, which of course are far less certain.
Kel................just watching, holding some SDR (more natgas in mix)
About 10% below last closing NAV and most MLPs up today 1 - 4%. KMF was down 2.75% when I bought it. Something very wrong as many other MLP type CEFs also had bad day. Will see if things straighten out on Tuesday.
Kel......also hold FEI and FPL
Down about 2.75% on the day. It's a CEF that holds MLPs. MLPs up today pretty much across the board, many 2 - 4%. The CEFs that hold them though were generally very weak. KMF is about 10% below Friday's closing NAV of 27.87. Should be even further under NAV when today's numbers update (NAV symbol XKMFX).
Kel....................ps......didn't buy and OKS, it ran away from me.