Getting slammed today along with other drillers as WTI crude is down $3.00+. Average price for my SFY is now about $9.74......about 1.5 X cash flow. Very cheap IMHO.
Can't go wrong at this price. This is soooooooo cheap. They did about $160 million of cash flow in the first half of the year if you back out balance sheet changes (which I do). That's about $3.63 per share of cash flow for the FIRST 6 MONTHS OF 2014.
This stock should be at a minimum of about $20.....actually wouldn't be over priced if it was trading at $30 right now. Even there it would only be about 4X cash flow.
Good move @ 9.56. Almost bought more at 9.50, decided to wait, bad move so far. Traded HERO once for a tiny loss, otherwise have stayed away from the rigs.
What's the guarantee on the next 10 distributions? I know there's some sort of guarantee on the 4 distributions that follow the drilling of the last of the 888 wells, which will likely be drilled before Dec. 31, 2014.
Your numbers are correct. Natgas may turn out to be a better play than oil in the next few years. As you said in your last sentence, "SFY is SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED."
Also saw those numbers....remember it said "POTENTIAL".....not proved reserves. Have to wonder why ATHL's board unanimously approved the offer in such a hurry at a paltry premium of 25% to it's Friday close.
If they are sitting on 3 bil BOE, wouldn't you think they could command a much higher offer?
ATHL buyout for almost $6 billion. Amazing multiple of cash flow over 15 X (SFY trades at less than 1.5 X cash flow). ATHL revenue estimate for 2014 $605 million (SFY estimate is $569 million, slightly less).
Both companies are in the $300 million area for cash flow the last 4 quarters running.
This transaction really puts the spotlight on SFY and how dirt cheap it really is. SFY is basically trading at 1/10 th the cash flow multiple that ATHL is being bought out at.
Kel........an SFY holder
S.......From some other reading I've done, it seems like one concern for the CEFs is the positions that Gross may personally hold in different CEFs. Info was in some Seeking Alpha stories. Not a holder of any of them.
2010.........$1.31 in October
2011.........$1.77 in December
2012.........$2.00 in January
2013.........$2.60 in April
2014.........$3.02 in April
I've been here since early 2011, about when Nuedexta started selling. Initial purchase after it sold off after the share offering that followed approval. Continued good investing to all longs. Has been great.
Kel..........still a patient holder
Analyst estimates and Analyst opinion.......probably not recently updated....for what it's worth....
Sept. 1/4.....Revenue est of $6.0 million vs $4.09 mil year ago......no EPS estimate
Full year 2014.....revenue of $23.8 million vs $19.8 mil in 2013......no EPS estimate
One price target..........$1.80
Otherwise they could do the buyback. Might be prevented by insider knowledge. Remember, buybacks always say "up to" a given amount. Might not buy back anything. Might just all be for "show'"
That's part of the reason I usually have a 50%+ cash position (sometimes up to 80%). As I trade in my IRA account, I always want settled funds available to make my sometimes brilliant moves........others not so brilliant....(:^)
From the Q 2 report..........
Average Q 2 production was 425 Barrels per day........expect a year end exit rate of 850 Barrels per day equivalent......folks, that's a double in production by year end.
Quote from them....."growth in quarterly production should be MUCH SHARPER than in the past".........that is due to Osage taking control of the drilling as an operator.
The Q 2 results were very negatively impacted by stock based compensation, which goes down as a non-cash expense. Made things look much worse than the real EBITDA and cash flow numbers.
Actually, at the time I bought it the chart looked like it had put in a solid double bottom and the stock was acting well. That sure changed quickly. Don't usually do this, but I let this one get away from me. Is now a salvage job.