Just added some TZA (shorts the Russell X 3).
Am now at 71% cash
Short ETFs.....14%...(TZA and SPXU)
Won't be around for the close today. Have to go help my sister with some things. So had to do my trading now.
Production at year end will be "double the rate it was at the end of the 2nd quarter." Two more wells online and already producing since the end of Q 2.
Should be much better than Q 2 was. The huge stock based compensation expense should be gone. Well output is really ramping. Moved some of my AVNR profits to OEDV.
Was here several months ago in this same price area. Very solid multiple bottoms in the 7.50 -.60 area going back to late last year. About 6.5% yield in the 7.75 area. I'll take that when the 10 year Treasury is 2.34% and most stocks look toppy.
J.......10 year Treasury now @ 2.334%. Bought some CSG today @ 7.73. Property REIT that holds mainly office and warehouse properties. Pays .042 monthly for a 6.5% annual yield. Slow grower.
This is the main concern I'd have w/ PSEC right now. The next EPS report / div declaration will likely be early in November, around the 6-7th area. If they pulled a surprise and had a distribution cut announcement before that would probably hurt the stock rather badly. Not saying it'll happen, just counting it in as a possibility.
Kel..................not holding any BDCs right now
J-man............I've always been intrigued by MOS and the other fertilizer stocks. It's one of those groups that when it moves it usually goes into a sustained long term uptrend (and the opposite on the downside).
Reminds me of the steel stocks and the oil refiners in that respect. If you can catch the start of that move, ride it for all you can.
Another group sort of like that is the memory stocks like MU. Once their fundamentals turn up, it's a thing of beauty.
Ray.....I believe you are incorrect. The statement of NII only includes all forms of income and operating expenses. Any portfolio writedowns will affect the NAV (as you stated).
I just looked through their NII statement and there's nothing there other than "money coming in as income and money going out as expenses."
I will admit that NII was hurt badly by much lower income from poor origination income, to the tune of 5 - 6 cents per share.
A few more months and we might run head on into tax loss selling. Something good has to happen here, and soon. Buyout??
frig.....you are correct. ATM use is just like doing numerous, small secondary offerings. It is all about what is done with the proceeds.
PSEC just running into the law of "large numbers." Raised too much money and cant find places for it quickly enough. Similar to FSC late last year.......a case of indigestion.
Other industrywide concerns also at play. Falling realized rates due to more competition. Worse credit risks as most of the better deals have been done.
Watching PSEC, now about 10.50. Not sure what it would take for me to buy this. Next declaration date should be early in November along with their Q 1 earnings report. I think there's a greater than 50% chance they cut the div to the .09 area at that time.
Kel......not holding any BDCs right now
What exactly is their "normal earnings stream?" When was the last time that NII (not Net Income or EPS) actually matched or exceeded the distributions paid out in any quarter?
NII of .25. Hurt mostly by lower origination income. For the 1/4 originations fell from $1.3 billion in the March 1/4 to $444 million in the June 1/4. This resulted in about $19 mil less in loan structuring fees or a drop of about .055 cents per share.
Mentioned that distributions are declared until December at .11+, but didn't comment as to their ability to continue that rate or not.
NAV closed at 10.56 a drop of .12 from 3 months earlier.
Total number of loans.....143......Total $$ of loans......$6.254 billion.
***Anyone wonder if PSEC is just getting too big? Obviously couldn't find places to put all their money to work in the quarter. Something to keep in mind for other BDCs. This industry has exploded in size in the last couple years. Has to be alot of competition out there for loans and what interest rates and terms are achievable. Terms probably not as good as a few years ago. Banks take the better credit risks and leave the dregs for BDCs and junk bond funds.
PSEC down afterhours to $10.64 -.34
Not a holder of PSEC or any other BDCs at this time.