Jan. 6 - 9th. Nightly lows.....-15......-14......-11.....-13. Fourteen day forecast revised again. Frigid temps on the way. If we get that in WI.....will also likely be very cold in MN, MI, IL....etc.
Don't recall saying anything about "real estate." They do have a "stated" net asset value of about $24 per share as of 9-30-14. Of course, that has little meaning now with the fall of oil prices. They have some props in the Eagle Ford that may be good oil and natgas areas. Other props in mostly Louisiana of dubious value now. Also about $1.1 billion of debt.
Also, they don't have much production hedged, which was foolish with their debt position. All these factors were less relevant @ $90 oil, now are big negatives.
Kel......not holding any SFY in any form
J-man........I stand corrected on that yield. I even had 12.4% in my notes. Saw that 7.30 NAV @ CEF Connect. The symbol XGGNX shows 7.32. Anyway, don't see this too often at a decent discount like 7.4%.
Of course, FSC closed Friday at a 16% discount to NAV and a 13.6% yield.....wish they would have left the div @ the $1.00 rate.
Bingo......cold is very much on the way. An added bonus for me is when it's very cold, it rarely snows much. Don't have to shovel the cold.
Kel in Green Bay
Friday closed @ 6.76 with an NAV of 7.32. Yield is 14%+ based on the reduced .07 monthly. Even if energy and PMs would stagnate here......GGN can make some good returns from option writing.
Look at the 2 year chart. Can't get much uglier. But, in the last 2 years it has twice ran from about $9.00 up to the $11.00 area. Not saying it'll do that again, but every dog has its day. Their day will arrive, just a matter of when.
Thanks for any comments............Kel
My rather good year also morphed into a turkey. Avoided the BDC mess as I was a skeptic there for the most part. Stepped into many value traps in the energy are (mainly SFY and LNCO). Did OK with biotechs and real well with AVNR. Now into ARIA with some others that moved on from AVNR (which got a buyout offer @ 17.00).
Did OK playing with PMs early in the year and avoided after that mostly.
Oil and natgas producers were my downfall.
Strangely.........thanks to Obamacare my account where I don't trade much (taxable account) did quite well this year. Mostly just buy and hold big names there like LOW, GILD, KMI, and a couple MLP-CEFs.
Good job. GGN is all about when you buy it and at what price.....and how long you hold it of course. From the current price (Dec. 26 close of 6.76 with NAV of 7.32) I'll probably add to my position.
Most of the distribution may be ROC, but it comes mostly from the option writing program. GGN can move up very quickly, especially if energy and PMs move together.
Fourteen day forecast shows cooling starting today (Dec. 28).....Warms up a little on Jan. 2-3, then into the icebox on Jan. 4 - 9......with lows every night below ZERO, and daytime highs mostly under 10 F.
When we get a cold spell here, it usually sags down from Canada and affects a good part of the Western Great Lakes Area and can sag down into the S. Illinois - Missouri area as well. East Coast burns a lot of fuel oil, the Midwest burns mainly Natural Gas.
UGAZ ready to run..
None of those OPEC countries like eating into their reserves. With almost nil return on money nowdays, eating into reserves is like taking a bite out of your own arm. Can't do that for long. Perhaps some other OPEC members will start ganging up on Saudi Arabia. A few attacks on their oil fields would spice things up a bit.
Nice to see so many fellow AVNR people finding a new home here. Built up quite a family there over 4 years. Bert, rim, ray, and Congo (tradestoxx) headed elsewhere thankfully. ARIA really looking like the stars are lining up.
Wonder what the current value would be. Even though I've reduced my cost basis to 58 cents through aggressive recent purchases........even that seems like a distant dream at this time.
Three things the market seems to focus on.....no particular order
1......the weather, current and looking forward a few weeks.
2......Rig counts.......falling, but not very quickly so far.
3......Weekly inventory and draw numbers.....probably bad again this week as reflects Week ending Dec. 26th. Was still unseasonably warm in most of the lower 48 states. Report on Wed. again most likely, as markets closed on Thursday.
I believe the approx. 5 million shares were classified as restricted stock. As of the 9-30-14 balance sheet they are no longer classified that way. Are now just lumped in w/ regular share count. May still be held by the GSK entity, but may now be more available for sale........not sure about that though.
I follow commodities @ CME Group web site. Prices are delayed 10 minutes during the trading day. Don't have to join or sign in. Will be switching to the Feb. contract very soon as front month......may have already.
Something like 23% of natgas production is a direct by-product of oil production.
Kel..........a UGAZ holder
Schreiber is also on the BOD @ Response Genetics (RGDX). Might be targeted by Vermillion for a buyout. Has almost $20 mil of annual revenues and about a $13 million market cap. Trading at 30 cents.