Cash flow is figured after SG&A and interest expenses are deducted. They said about $180 mil CF at 4.00 ng and 80.00 oil. You are correct that CF would be severely impaired if prices fell to say $65 oil and $3.50 natgas.
They must present a plan to the NASDAQ by 1-8-15 to increase equity back over the $2.5 million level. Please give them until about Jan. 6th and see if they come up with something.
In my many (30+) years of investing, I've seen this too many times. A low priced stock getting pounded down near the end of the year. Once all the tax-loss sellers run out of shares to sell, a stock like RGDX can bounce upward very quickly.
Unless you feel they are in immediate danger of going BK or something like that, I think it's worth giving another 5 weeks to. How would you like to dump this now below 50 cents and see it at .75+ a few weeks after you sell.
Remember, they got a $12 million loan commitment ($8.5 mil tapped) from someone who knows better than we do what's going on and they apparently have confidence that RGDX will prosper. Could also have positive news at anytime. Revenues are trending upward as are gross margins. Both good signs.
Just my opinion as a 8000 share holder...................................Kel
Couldn't find any declarations later than the first of the month. One was on Oct. 1st and then on Oct. 28th, both after the close. I think there won't be a cut this month.
SFY must be finding a bottom. Down about 1.37%. Ran a random sample list of 10 other oil / natgas drillers. Best of that list was down 2.9% and the worst was down 7.3%.
Especially those that may have been active on the "Closed end funds" message board.
"Tug8boat," who was active they for many years, has passed away. A nice letter at that board from his son.
I communicated with Tug literally scores of times over the last decade. He was extremely knowledgeable about Closed End Funds and was always willing to share that wisdom with everyone, novices and veterans alike.
The "master of mousing" was a fine and generous man. Deserves to be warmly remembered by all those he helped along the way.
$10 mil per 1/4 in correction for overstated AFFO will not cause an elimination of the div. It could cause a small cut to perhaps .075, but maybe not even that.
Slick.....Somewhat agree. NAV down. NII still can't cover the div. If they do these spin offs, that'll be the perfect opportunity (and excuse) to cut the div. Everything will be murky for awhile on the accounting front (like ARCP?) so no one will know what's going on numbers wise.
How can everything be going "great" and have the NII shortfall and a falling NAV?
Kel.................just an observer at this time
Would pay to hold it if you thought it was going to drop more than the x-div amount. Another factor coming more into play here is the price of oil. This stock is starting to act more like a typical oil production company. Moving up and down with the daily swings in oil prices. Not very logical, but that's the way the market works.
Once the hedges come off next March, it'll really be at the mercy of oil price fluctuations.
Kel.....just an observer
Now have 10,000.....average 71 cents. Sales growing. NY approval imminent (it appears). Must get those collections straightened out. Maybe someone will #$%$ these guys up. Pocket change for LabCorp, Myriad, and other big boys in the biz.
They expect deal to close by 12-31-14. They put down a 5% deposit for the deal....around $265 million, which they "could" lose if the deal doesn't close by 3-31-15.
SWN is doing a bridge loan with Bank of America / Merrill Lynch for $5.0 billion. After the deal is completed, they will at some point in 2015 seek to turn that bridge loan into permanent financing.