That $6 per share (about $250 million) was before prices of oil and natgas fell. Current run rate is probably in the $3.00 area, perhaps much less. Don't forget that DEBT is about $25.00 per share..($1.1 billion divided by 44 million).
Packers are playing Dallas on Sunday @ Noon Central time. Carolina is @ Seattle, not sure of time. Doubled my position in AREX today. AREX will be a survivor, not so sure about Swifty.
Had 15,000 at one point, now have 3000 left. Sold quite a lot in the .30 - .40 range. Have lost quite a bit of confidence (and $$) in this situation, probably influenced by the lack of communication from the company. Will just hold what I have now (less than $1000 now) and see how things progress. Good luck all longs.
By the way, the funds from today's sale went into AREX (Approach Resources), a good quality but smaller oil and natgas driller.
Spent a good part of the day looking for a better value in a company that I KNOW will survive. Couldn't find anything I liked better than AREX.
Strange action today in AREX. Refused to go down and close negative. Finally gave up on finding something better and just added to my position here.
For those that wonder if AREX will survive this downturn. Go back and read the Dec. 16 press release about 2015 CAPEX plans. They also discuss how they dealt with the crash (much worse than this one by the way) in oil and natgas prices that took place in 2008. They know what they are doing.
Have a good weekend all AREX longs.....................Kel
Oil is very near a bottom in my opinion. Bottom may be defined by a military / political event that's unforeseen. Could happen at anytime. Just imagine if some terrorists attacked Saudi Arabia's oil fields or pipelines. Oil would whoosh up several $$ very quickly. Just saying.....it could happen. Some desperate countries out there.
Might as well tear up that spread sheet if you're using numbers from 9-30-14. Oil has been cut in 1/2 and natgas is down by at least 1/3 since then. Try doing a SS with current inputs. If SFY had good hedges in place you might have a case. Even companies like LINE ( who have strong hedge positions) are cutting their distributions by more than 50%. Desperate times in this business.
J...man.........I'm not sure about the airlines as I'm not a player with that group. As far as oil goes, I think the risk is turning towards being short as it goes down and the price compresses at these lower (sub $50 ) levels. All it'll take is some weird military strike against a major oil producer to send the oil market up maybe $10 (or more) in a second.
What would happen to the airlines then? They have benefited greatly from low oil prices, so that story may be running its course. As oil falls it becomes less and less likely that it continues on that course. Drillers are cutting 2015 CAPEX all over the place. That may take some time to flow through the system, but it will lead to lower increases in supply at some point..................Just my opinion.
Ragingbull msswanson.......Add your 2 posts together....Raging bull says SFY had $223 million of liquidity on 9-30-14. Msswanson says that IR tells him they NOW have $100 million of liquidity. That's a huge difference and a very disturbing trend.
Kel.............watching, but not interested in buying
Whatever can be "salvaged" from SFY can be invested in other oil / gas producers that have much better mngt and chances of survival. When the price of oil turns up again, those survivors may go up several Xs in price. But, you have to be in those that DO survive to benefit from that eventual turnaround.
***I have no connection to Rebecca in any way.
Kel.....just an observer
CNBC had a video piece on Wed. about SFY (and SD) having bond coupon payments (interest?) due next week. Seemed to be concern whether or not either company had the necessary cash on hand to make the payment.
I think that either company should be able to juggle cash inflow to make these payments. If they know it's coming up they can back off on other expenditures for a few weeks to have the funds on hand. That being said, SFY does have about $18 million per 1/4 in interest expense that isn't going anywhere, even as cash flow decreases along with lower oil and natgas prices.
Kel.............an observer, not a current SFY holder
We, as mngt of the company you have invested your hard earned savings in......refuse to tell you what's going on at "your" company. It's none of your business. NASDAQ's problems with low equity and share price are nothing to worry about. Same goes for our difficulty with Accounts Receivable. You are in the dark and we will keep you there.
Sincerely......your mum mngt team
Did you read their Dec. 16th press release regarding 2015 CAPEX and forecast? They said that they dealt with low oil prices in the past and know how to navigate those waters.
AREX is neither debt heavy nor poorly managed. They know what to do and when to be cautious.
Yan, you are VERY correct. Even though SCO is only a 2 X ultra ETF, and not a 3X, the decay factor is still there over anything but short term periods of probably a month or more.
Here's an example........over a two year period...DGAZ (short natgas 3 X) and UGAZ (long natgas 3 X)......both declined over 60%. Both are now under $10, having been much higher 2 years ago. What does that tell anyone about holding these ETFs for anything but very short term plays?
Sold @ 3.83......made 13 cents. UGAZ made a quick pop over 3.90, then began settling back. Held it about 15 minutes.