You must live in the South. Here in WI (and other northern states) we consume massive amounts of natgas every winter. Many homes on the East coast have been gradually switching to NG from fuel oil for years. In my home we cook and heat with NG.
That's what I did on Thursday. SFY will survive, CLF may falter or just languish under $10 for months or years. SFY is 75% production of natgas and NGLs, has strong cash flow, and is reducing debt. Is trading at about 1.3 X cash flow on a GAAP basis and is at about 1/3 of book value. Dirt cheap.
GGN is somewhere near 50 -50% energy and precious metal stocks as their portfolio mix. They write call options on a good portion of their portfolio. This cushions the falls in portfolio value, but also limits the upside gains.
Must be aware of the long term deterioration of NAV. I've traded GGN here and there (but not recently). I haven't had very good luck catching the swings. I think J-man has had better results.
Debt coming down.
Production on the up swing.
Decline rates are part of the business.
September 1/4.....the lowest EPS estimate is a 9 cent loss. Highest estimate is for a .10 profit. Same situation with the revenue estimates. Low ball estimate is $128 million with the highest estimate @ $150 million.
Similar situation in the December 1/4. Revenue estimate range is $123 mil - $152 million.
Actually, I think even the highest estimates may be too conservative considering the Q 2 results and trend of progress. EPS report should be in the week of October 27 - 30.
Current price targets range from $10 up to $22.
Good reading.....under SEC Filings.....10K dated 2-28-14. Explains all the provisions of the Trust Agreements. I will admit that I don't under stand every word of it.
Might be OK @ the present price of 9.37. Crude oil pricing is killing it right now. Won't hurt much for the next few quarters, but smart investors are looking down the road a ways.
Late this year......last well of 888 to be drilled
Next March.....hedges come off
Late next year approx......subordination ends.
Sell on any pop and never return. This is a "musical chairs" type stock. Don't be left standing and holding the bag.
Kel...............a former holder, now just an observer
Not sure about $5, but it's sure the @#$* worth a lot more than a lousy 64 cents. My average cost on 5000 shares is about 85 cents.
I was reading the post above yours and I thought this guy needs GGN. Scrolled down and there was your post mentioning it.
Heavily into SFY (Swift Energy). Natgas and oil driller. Soft today like similars.
They said they expect that to be the exit rate at the end of this year. It's double the AVERAGE daily production of the 2nd quarter.
Had 400 shares in my now about $77,000 IRA acct. Now have 1000 SFY at an average of about $9.30. Trading around 8.55.
Just sold my CLF position @ 9.47. Took almost 3% from my IRA value. I feel better already. I think the SFY will do OK. Have traded it numerous times and it's my 2nd best profit producer this year (AVNR is # 1).
Sometime you have to take the bull by the horns, admit you were wrong, and move forward.
The really good BDCs' dividends are driven by NII, which is net investment income. That is the number that reflects all interest income minus all expenses. Doesn't include portfolio gains and losses, which can be either realized or unrealized. A BDC may trumpet a realized portfolio gain, but keep quiet about unrealized losses.
Kel......holding only FSC at this time
See my post.....look at SFY (Swift Energy).....barely above 1 X cash flow......super value. Around 1/3 of book value.
Bought CLF @ 14.95 on Sept. 17. Can no longer absorb the possibility of additional losses. Will sell today.Have already allocated a similar amount of funds to SFY (Swift Energy) @ 8.60.
SFY will at least survive. It's trading at slightly more than 1 X cash flow. ($360 mil annual CF and about $380 mil market cap).....has taken on a partner for some properties and has reduced debt. CAPEX is about equal to CF, so that is under control. Production is about 63% natgas, 12% NGLs, and 25% oil.
The only way I can sell CLF is to buy something that I think gives me the possibility (at least) of recovering some or a good part of the losses.
Good luck to all recovering from this FIASCO.
Will elaborate that oil was about 58% of total revenues. This is due to the BTU value of oil vs the BTU value of natgas.
Oil is about 3.75 X as expensive as natgas for their respective energy values.