Not goofing around with SFY anymore. Holding SWN and AREX. This is all about survival now. Not sure if SFY will make it.
Will admit though that the stock has held up better than I expected in the last few weeks.
To expand a little.........LINE and LNCO
New monthly is.1042, was .2416.
CAPEX reduced by 53% to $730 million. Could go higher if Oil / NG exceed expectations of $60 for WTI and $3.50 for NG for 2015.
CAPEX and the div / dists will be covered by expected cash flows.
Production assumptions.......54% NG, 32% Oil, 14% NGLs.
Just did a 2 year comparison chart @ Yahoo......DGAZ is down 64%+ in the last 2 years and UGAZ is down 79%+. Much decay until the prices become "compressed" at sub $5.00 levels.
Shouldn't DGAZ and UGAZ be a zero sum situation over time? If you add up the prices of both of them a few years ago and do the same now......there's a huge difference (much less now). In fact, DGAZ seems like it would be much higher than it is considering the current price of natgas.
J.......I think the NG traders will be disappointed if NG falls further. Weather getting cold and NG refuses to respond as they desire. I got completely out of UGAZ (at some losses) on Monday and Tuesday, and it fell a lot, mostly on Wed. Bought some SWN for NG exposure, a much safer position.
The "decay" rate in UGAZ is close to 2% a month, even if NG is unchanged. That's hard to overcome if it's held more than a few weeks. Really bad long term.
About 7:33 PM Central.......Feb. contracts..
Kel..........holding MEMP, LNCO, COP, SWN, and AREX
Looking for January "bounce" candidates. Bought a few near their lows late in Dec...........EXEL, SPPI, LXRX. Actually bought SPPI and LXRX today (Dec. 31)..
Certainly made a good (lucky?) move selling UGAZ @ 4.79. SWN is about even with where I made the switch. Good luck longs....we're still in the same boat.
Added some LXRX today @ 89 cents. Similar beat up situation that could move early in 2015. EXEL having a nice day today.....+ 10 cents to 1.45.
Good luck all longs and Happy New Year...........Kel