Wow, that was wild. Ended up making .29 per share. Could have done much better. When we got in negative territory I was looking for the market to really crack and maybe go down 100 DOW points or more........didn't happen for me this time...............ended up trading for a 40 point DOW loss.
Enjoy the weekend everyone......................Kel
Put s short on with SPXU (shorts the S&P 500 X 3) when the DOW was up 90 points. Still playing it, trying to maximize profit. Will exit before the end of the day.
Virgil Swift built this company......son Terry running it into the ground. Give it up Terry......you just don't have what it takes. Sell out. Not even much insider ownership here.
Trading now at about 4 X cash flow, not a bad ratio at all. Debt almost 3 X cash flow. Certainly not terrible, but they have to be careful.
Take a look at the Financials----Balance sheet that shows the years back to 2010. Compare the growth in debt to the growth in equity. Company is growing but debt has exploded compared to the much more moderate growth in equity.
Kel...........PS....not trying to bash, just pointing out the things I look at.
Slowly creeping up. Will likely add another $100 mil or more this year based on capex / cash flow. Not a terrible ratio of debt / cash flow, but slowly heading in that direction.
Kel...........a former holder just watching.
As I type it's 13 below zero outside here in Green Bay, WI. Furnace running almost non stop. We just set a record here with the most days in a winter season with below zero temperatures......49 days. We'll have more below zero days going into March.......so much for Global Warming.
Reserve life is an incredible 18 years. All those $$ are going to build up reserves but they have no money left to get them out of the ground. They've stretched their debt about as far as they can reasonably go. I think if they manage to execute the asset sale, some of those $$ will go to paying debt and some to getting those reserves to the surface.......that is if they are smart and capable enough to do that.
You got me interested in GPT. Regarding the possible div reinstatement. I read the Nov. 7th third 1/4 report and they mentioned in it that they expect to restart the common div in the present 1/4 (Q 1 of 2014).
Sounds interesting but more research to do. They also sold some shares in October, subsequent to the end of Q 3. Seems like they're doing a lot of transactions.
Market cap now $431 million.....cash flow about $311 million in 2013...that's 1.4 X cash flow.......i don't think I've ever see an oil stock this cheap.
Market cap $431 million.....equity is $1,033,000,000.....about $23.47 a share after ALL LIABILITIES are subtracted.
Year end reserves are 219.2 Barrels of oil equivalent....that's 18 years of production.
Yeah I know mngt has done a HORRIBLE job of getting these reserves out of the ground and selling them, but there's a lot of value here and if the present mngt can't realize that value.......PE (private equity) or another oil company will suck them up, spit out the #$%$ mngt, and liquidate this thing for a substantial profit north of $15 per share.
Good assessment ........not much different from mine.
My goal now is to salvage as much from this stock as I can over the next few months. Possible upside catalysts are LA sale and / or joint venture......iffy prospects for both though. Seems like everyone is out there trying to sell "non core" properties.
SFY down about $2.50 on earnings that the market wasn't happy with. Glad I sold about 60% of my position in the last several days. Still very cheap based on book value and cash flow. Eighteen years of reserves, but they have to come out of the ground to realize value. Several other oil / natgas producers have gotten beat up badly after recent EPS reports.
Small position I do have left is now destined for "salvage".....that is get the best price possible over the next several months.
Went through it very quickly....
----still dirt cheap based on cash flow and book value
---nice increase in reserves....up 14%.........reserve life almost 18 years which is fine but shows that the product has to come out of the ground.
---forecast production for '14 flat with '13 approx......not good
--------------this company HAS to be broken up. Assets aren't being exploited. They're all "in the ground."
Worth much more than $10....12....14.......but not the way it's being run at this time.
Just my opinion.........Kel..........a holder
Interesting that the more EPS reports you read from various companies.....you see non-core properties for sale all over the place. Might take awhile to move Central LA. Just saying, lots of stuff out there for sale or maybe "on sale."
OT......nice find....At $3.50 per MCF (just a guess) those TX natgas production numbers would equate to about 1/6 th of total revenue of about $600 million.
Certainly a rough day in the oil patch. Almost every production company is responding negatively to their earnings reports..........see QEP, CHK, etc.......(disregard FST.....they have their own set of problems)
If you're calm, then I know it's time to panic............... Just watching though, not playing right now.
Jman...........did you read about the reason most BDCs are weak today? They are being removed from some indexes. Many Index ETFs and Index Mutual Funds may have to sell them if they tie their portfolios to the Dow Jones indexes. Of course, if any of the BDCs get too cheap they may be bargains.