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Advance Auto Parts Inc. Message Board

keltus1952 686 posts  |  Last Activity: 5 hours ago Member since: Mar 4, 2004
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  • Reply to

    Oil, NG, Gold, and Silver..

    by keltus1952 Dec 1, 2014 1:46 AM
    keltus1952 keltus1952 Dec 1, 2014 2:04 AM Flag

    Don't you ever sleep? I'll be going to bed soon, but will be up by 7:00 AM Central.

    Kel

  • At 1:09 AM eastern time.............Bloomberg Futures

    WTI Crude.....$64.51.....down 1.64
    Natgas.............$3.96.....down 13 cents

    Gold............$1150....down $25.00
    Silver..........$14.89....down 67 cents

    Kel

  • Reply to

    Commodity Price question

    by mr.phil2u Nov 30, 2014 7:17 PM
    keltus1952 keltus1952 Nov 30, 2014 8:54 PM Flag

    LNCO and LINE should be declaring Monday after the close. Have seen guesses from unchanged to lower by 50%.

    Kel

  • Reply to

    Commodity Price question

    by mr.phil2u Nov 30, 2014 7:17 PM
    keltus1952 keltus1952 Nov 30, 2014 8:43 PM Flag

    I think by anyone the article meant any member of OPEC......but it was poorly stated.
    There obviosly will be some production cuts in the US. A lot of current production is not profitable @ $70. That's why the Saudis won't cut, they know the score.

    Kel

  • Reply to

    Commodity Price question

    by mr.phil2u Nov 30, 2014 7:17 PM
    keltus1952 keltus1952 Nov 30, 2014 8:39 PM Flag

    At the CME site....click on ENERGY PRODUCTS. Go to CRUDE OIL, then click on QUOTES. My "go to" site for oil and ng quotes.

    Kel

  • Reply to

    Commodity Price question

    by mr.phil2u Nov 30, 2014 7:17 PM
    keltus1952 keltus1952 Nov 30, 2014 8:27 PM Flag

    I just left the CME Group website. Last trade timed @ 7:13 PM Central time......$64.56, down 1.59 with 34,790 contracts traded....time delay 10 minutes.

    Open.....66.00
    high.......66.18
    low.....................64.10

    Changing every minute.

    Kel

  • Reply to

    Commodity Price question

    by mr.phil2u Nov 30, 2014 7:17 PM
    keltus1952 keltus1952 Nov 30, 2014 8:19 PM Flag

    Only one buy.....SFY....Why? Because I'm INSANE!!!.......Kel:)

  • Reply to

    Oil down ATM below $65

    by pa61440 Nov 30, 2014 7:04 PM
    keltus1952 keltus1952 Nov 30, 2014 8:03 PM Flag

    Here I am. Lucky in Football, unlucky in SFY...

    7:21 PM Eastern.....WTI OIL @ $64.38....-1.77.............

    ........................NATGAS......@ $3.96.....- 12 cents.

    DJIA futures down by 50 points. All could change by Monday open of course.

    From Bloomberg website.

    Kel in Green Bay.....................by the way, another cold front rolling in, but just for a few days. Low tonight about 5, high tomorrow about 12 and around ZERO Monday night. Then warming up a little.

  • Reply to

    AFTER HOURS LAST PRICE...?

    by flea4dg Nov 30, 2014 12:56 PM
    keltus1952 keltus1952 Nov 30, 2014 1:23 PM Flag

    NASDAQ site says 4.75, but it also says no after hours trades.

    Kel

  • Reply to

    Huge item from 2013 PV-10 discussion...

    by keltus1952 Nov 30, 2014 1:37 AM
    keltus1952 keltus1952 Nov 30, 2014 10:50 AM Flag

    You're missing my point. Everyone can see the PV-10 valuations of $24 now and whatever it is when Q4 earnings are released late in Feb. If the '14 PV-10 is based on $90 oil and oil is then at $75.......what value do you thing the "market" will put on SFY? Not a value based on $90 oil. That's why SFY is @ 4.50 w/ wti @ 66.00. If WTI goes up on Monday, SFY will likely go up too. WTI pricing is the tail wagging the dog.

    I do agree that the next PV-10 reading will get some help from a higher NG valuation. It won't make up for the lower oil number though. Not even close IMO.

    I am long the stock. I'm just trying to get these issues out there so we all can make informed decisions. Fasken does look truly fantastic. Wish they could dump all the non- EF oil properties (pay down debt), and just be a pure EF player.

    Just my opinions...............Kel.........holding SFY

  • From the top of p. 11 of the 2013 Annual report. Price affect on PV-10 values. If OIL and NGLs drop by 5% it causes a $164 million drop in Valuation. So, for the 2014 report they might drop the pv-10 number for oil from last year's $104 to maybe $90. But the "market" knows the "real" value of oil. Maybe more like $80.

    So, if oil drops by 20% the "real value" of SFY's assets would drop by $164 million X 4, or about $656 million. This would equate to a drop in book value of about $15. Puts us right near about the $9-10 level. Everyone (well almost anyway) knows the $24 net equity number is pure fantasy.

    Kel

  • keltus1952 keltus1952 Nov 30, 2014 1:26 AM Flag

    SWN is something like 99% natural gas.

    Kel

  • Reply to

    Pondering a safe core investment

    by mr.phil2u Nov 28, 2014 10:49 PM
    keltus1952 keltus1952 Nov 29, 2014 8:17 PM Flag

    Look at SHY. Low yield, but it sailed through the fiasco.

    Kel

  • Reply to

    UNG

    by nedelkay Nov 28, 2014 2:07 PM
    keltus1952 keltus1952 Nov 29, 2014 8:01 PM Flag

    Just remember that with NG traders really look ahead. When the recent cold snap hit much of the countries midsection, traders were already selling off NG. Always looking 10 days - two weeks forward. Same with the anticipation of Spring. If we get warm weather during February, that'll be the end of any winter NG rallies.

    Kel

  • Reply to

    UNG

    by nedelkay Nov 28, 2014 2:07 PM
    keltus1952 keltus1952 Nov 29, 2014 3:13 PM Flag

    I use the CME Group website. Quotes delayed 10 minutes. Click on Natural Gas, then click on Quotes. Chicago Mercantile Exchange. Shows all the future months too.

    Kel

  • Reply to

    Fasken:

    by jammer_shutdown Nov 29, 2014 7:08 AM
    keltus1952 keltus1952 Nov 29, 2014 12:17 PM Flag

    I don't think they'll be cash flow negative, but they will likely be "free cash flow negative." They, in the Q3 report projected a $50 - 60 million "shortfall" in 2015. This initial projection was for 2015 budget of $240 - 260 million with a $50 - 60 million shortfall. Implies Cash flow in the $175 - 190 mil area.
    That will vary, but probably not too greatly. NG may be above price projection, but oil below. How much is the question.

    They will have to make some very hard decisions for 2015 CAPEX. No frivolous spending. Probably no property add ons, certainly not in oil. Hunker down Terry, survival is the key word now.

    Kel

  • Reply to

    UNG

    by nedelkay Nov 28, 2014 2:07 PM
    keltus1952 keltus1952 Nov 29, 2014 12:02 PM Flag

    If I'm feeling brave I play UGAZ. Levered 3 X to long natgas. Can do that with less $$ involved or a more bullish play if that's what you desire. Only use very short term, sometimes intraday.

    Kel

  • Reply to

    Fasken:

    by jammer_shutdown Nov 29, 2014 7:08 AM
    keltus1952 keltus1952 Nov 29, 2014 11:42 AM Flag

    "We believe natural gas prices will increase from current levels"...................Nice quote, but who thinks these guys posses any insight into commodity pricing? Is that why they're flying unhedged? 'Cause they know so much?

    Anyway, nice discussion in this thread. Fasken and NG looks great. Oil looks rotten. CASH FLOW is what counts in 2015. They, in a roundabout way, projected about $180 million of '15 cash flow @ 4.00 NG and $80 oil. Might do better on NG and worse on the oil projection.

    Pay the bills, don't borrow any more, and treat every $ like it's coming out of your own back pocket.

    Kel

  • Just looking back through it.......

    Lake Washington sounds like a money pit......Looking for oil @ 6000 - 14000 foot depth. Targeting deep, high-risk, high-reward areas in L. Washington. Would be hard to believe that oil from that depth could be profitable @ $70 unhedged oil price. Drilling in '14 will be about 2/3 for liquids (oil and NGLs) and 1/3 for natgas.

    Kind of scary how they twist the historical numbers around to make it sound like they are all geniuses. Has been in business 35 years. Stock at the end of 2012 was $15.39 and $13.50 at the end of 2013. Now @ $4.50 with a market cap of about $200 million.
    That's what is defined as value DESTRUCTION.

    Kel................a holder

  • Reply to

    Div declare Monday after the close...

    by keltus1952 Nov 29, 2014 2:05 AM
    keltus1952 keltus1952 Nov 29, 2014 10:46 AM Flag

    Excellent points. Natgas hedges are real strong for 2015 - 16. Oil not quite so good. Might see a cut just to be on the safe side. Like you said, a good opp to cut given current panic conditions. Maybe down to 20 cents monthly.....a cut of 17.2%......yield would still be 14%+. Given the current price, a cut to 15 cents would still yield over 10%.
    Like all other companies, they have to look forward many months (and years) and not just calculate things one month at a time. This might support a bigger cut to the 16.66 cent area ($2.00 annual rate).

    Good luck all.....just guessing at this point.........................Kel.....a holder

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