Advance Auto Parts Inc. Message Board

Thanks Sarge, great report as usual........what I found most impressive for the week was that it didn't fall back after Wed's. gains. In recent weeks, it has usually fallen back after having a decent one day gain.
With so many shares 'locked up' in mutual funds and long term bulls (like us) perhaps a larger portion of recent volume is coming from shorts either covering or trading back and forth. Just a thought.

Kel

Three things taking it down today. Price of gold, price of oil, and .12 x-div. NOT YOU RAY....

Kel........might buy

Not really a case of EOS over ETY. I've held EOS longer because it was always a monthly payer and the others just switched recently. Also got into EOS at a better price last year. Given the choice of ETY vs EXG, you could say I certainly like ETY better. Don't like the larger European mix in EXG's portfolio.

Given all that, I don't think I'd buy any of them until we get a market selloff. I do like ETY and Eaton Vance overall as a fund manager.

Hope this helps..........Kel

I don't see any problem with adding new shares, especially if done above NAV, as I think they do. You may criticize their basic investment strategy as PM stocks (their major % of portfolio) have done so poorly recently that even the buy/write strategy can't compensate for most of the equity losses.

Kel

Took a look at their latest eps report which gave alot of info. Was previously unfamiliar with PWE. Looks like a good operation, certainly is big. Alot of moving parts with property dispositions, etc.

I see they only have about 1/2 of their oil production hedged for 2013, so there's some price risk if prices tumble. Natgas hedged below current price, but local prices can vary alot for ng.

If there was something that concerned me it would be reserves in relation to production. Reserve level is 6-7 times annual production. This is a fair level, but not great by any means. A number upwards of 8 or even above 10 would be safer. But, this is a exploiter of reserves type company hence the nice dividend. The acceptable standards for this type of operation are probably different from a standard E&P like NOG, one I'm very familiar with that has a reserve life about 15 X annual production.

Their goal (PWE's that is) is probably to produce and replace reserves every year.

Hope this helps..........Kel

For example.....QCOR drug Acthar has 19 FDA approved indications. Trading at about 7 X this year's EPS estimates. I hold AVNR, QCOR, and others.

Kel

Last published NAV was $9.88 on 12-31-12. Just watching so far.

Kel

We did hit that 1mil. Heavy volume in the last 10 minutes.

Kel

I don't care much if it closes over $3 tomorrow. It's $6 that I'm looking for. So far, it's been elusive.

Kel

Yahoo says April 29th, but that's not carved in stone. The company will release the date a week or 2 ahead of time. Not sure if they'll put out a pre-release indication of how the 1/4 went. Sure acting #$%$ the last few days. Hope that's not an indication of things to come.

Kel

Most of what I have left is my monthly dividend payers......PSEC and buy / write CEFs mostly, also FEI, a MLP CEF that pays monthly. Looks like I sold a little early, but I'm a big boy, I can handle my lack of perfection.....(:^)

Kel

Good job on the GGN. Getting pretty far above its NAV again. Watch the NAV when it's announced a few hours after the close. Symbol XGGNX.

Kel

Growing EPS and an expanding PE ratio. If QCOR earns $5.00 in 2014 (below current average estimates) and moves up to a well deserved and not unreasonable PE of 15 X.........we'll be at $75. Get the govt probe and CITRON out of the way and QCOR would be there in short order.

Kel