Green Bay forecast.........starting Dec. 30th, 10 days in a row with no temps above 18 degrees F. Several days below ZERO at night. Has been 30 - 40 F for highs the last several days. Average high is around 26 F at this time.
Ton.....I agree on both CHK and TRN...
Sold my CHK on Tuesday after it popped following the completion of the property sale to SWN. I though the proceeds were going for debt reduction (much needed IMHO). Not so sure about that now.
TRN looks like a real value down in the sub $30 area. Tank car area is a risk but they are diversified enough to absorb any softness in that area I think.
Bought some COP recently @ 62.50. Like that for a 4% + yield, good bal sheet, and moderate growth.
Numbers from my previous post MIGHT indicate a lower rate more like about 2.4% a month average, not compounded. Would be less than that compounded. Of course, that also assumes that UNG has a ZERO % decay factor. Many variables I guess. Nonetheless, it is apparent the decay factor is significant if the position is held for anything other than a short term play............maybe a month at most.
I did look at a 5 year Comparison chart on Yahoo Finance.On April 15, 2012 ....UNG was @ 14.40, now @ 15.62.....both are low areas (long term price wise).
UGAZ was @ 14.98 on April 15, 2012...........now @ 4.80.
So, UNG is up 8.47% from where it was 2 years and 8 months ago. UGAZ is down 68% from that same date.
This all assumes that Yahoo's long term charts are accurate.
Do you know what the "decay" rate is? Say how many percent over a month or one year. I've played TMV from time to time and it is noticeable there. Bigger problem with some Ultra ETFs than with others.
I agree that these vehicles aren't made to be anything more than short term speculations.
One thing I wonder about though with the possibility of selling more shares. There might be restrictions in the loan covenants with that group (I believe they hold some Warrants) that made the $12 loan commitment to them (about $8.5 mil drawn so far).
Must file an appeal by the close of trading this Friday. They said they will do that. Two already known problems.
Low stock price and equity below $2.5 million. Both problems are solvable. Doing a R / S is easy, although we would then have an awfully thin float. Raising some $$ would cause dilution, which we can handle as the current shares outs. is about 40 million. Could go to 50 million and raise $3-4 million, more than doubling net equity.
Of course, sales must continue to increase and the company must keep edging closer to profitability.
Amazing some of the moves this has made. And some of the biggest moves have been outside of the winter months. Now at all time lows.
With stock at 34 cents. Room there to sell some shares to bring equity up to that $2.5 mil level. Dilute by 10% or about 4 mil shares. So what.
Merry Christmas all.................Kel
Dec. 24............Just added another 5000 @ .349. Probably a bad idea, but I bought more out of anger than a well thought out decision. A few people "pulling my strings" today.........so I just don't care anymore. Way too much of this. Have reduced my cost basis to
FEI raised the distribution again. New rate will be .1134 monthly, was .1117 since March 2014.
I've held it almost 2 years now and they've raised the dist. 3 times.
Started @ .1083, then .1100, .1117, now .1134. Small increases, but they add up over time.
I could hold longer. All depends on how the stock trades. You are correct in saying that sometimes the New Year trading of tax loss victims doesn't always "correct" valuation discrepancies within a month.
Places..........Just got back in @ 6.56 after selling a few weeks ago a little higher. Looks like a few AVNR people have matriculated their way over to ARIA. I always trusted your opinion over there, particularly regarding the Generic lawsuits. Thanks for your comments.
I held AVNR almost to the end. Got out in the high $14s not long before the buyout. Did very well there over 4 years.